Does it even matter
So, today the recession became official.
The question is, does it matter? We all knew late last year what was really going on, it just takes time for the officials to become certain enough to make the declaration.
So, I'm going to say it does matter, and here's why. A typical recession lasts only about 9 months. The report states a recession started late last December. I doubt anyone is going to seriously claim that it has already ended...which means this recession has already outlasted the average. And things do not look especially brighter than they did last spring for instance.
The question is, does it matter? We all knew late last year what was really going on, it just takes time for the officials to become certain enough to make the declaration.
So, I'm going to say it does matter, and here's why. A typical recession lasts only about 9 months. The report states a recession started late last December. I doubt anyone is going to seriously claim that it has already ended...which means this recession has already outlasted the average. And things do not look especially brighter than they did last spring for instance.
Comments
I might turn bearish on the markets now
yeah, y-o-y PCE changes are still falling off a cliff and have not found any support yet, which suggests that its still early in the consumer downturn, and we'll have at least another year before the consumer adjustment starts to repair itself.
of course, that assumes that this is a recession like others for the past 50 years or so. if this is a major debt deleveraging of the consumer with credt-strapped consumers unable to leverage more and forced to pay off credit cards and home loans, then the consumer downturn could be much longer than 'typical' for the past 50 years...