Are inventory numbers going thru the roof this month?
Just for kicks, I checked inventory using Windermere.com today and compared to last month's MLS reports. I would think it is a comparable data set as Windermere is using the MLS as their source, but I am not 100% sure.
If these numbers are right, We're heading for the cliff faster than I thought. Double digit inventory growth in 18 days - and that's on top of how many months straight of inventory gain?
Then there was this article that pointed out that Seattle already had one of the biggest inventory % gains in the country.
Oh, and by the way - if I remember correctly, 10,900 listings is about a 1000 listings higher than any period Tim has in his spreadsheet - other than some really old data, which I suspect is not comparable.
Edit: I was right that the pre-2000 figures are not comparable -they're for King/Snoho/N Pierce counties. However, Tim shows only SFR - so 8,402 is the right comparison. This higher than all but 12 of the last 89 months, during which time average was ~6900
We don't seem to be having a spring "selling" season - we're having a spring "listing" season
But of course, someone will certainly point out that the median price is still going up. Which means - um, well - I am not sure. I can't buy or sell a "median" house. Median price is still going up in San Diego too. I wouldn't buy a house there with your money.
Comments?
If these numbers are right, We're heading for the cliff faster than I thought. Double digit inventory growth in 18 days - and that's on top of how many months straight of inventory gain?
Then there was this article that pointed out that Seattle already had one of the biggest inventory % gains in the country.
Oh, and by the way - if I remember correctly, 10,900 listings is about a 1000 listings higher than any period Tim has in his spreadsheet - other than some really old data, which I suspect is not comparable.
Edit: I was right that the pre-2000 figures are not comparable -they're for King/Snoho/N Pierce counties. However, Tim shows only SFR - so 8,402 is the right comparison. This higher than all but 12 of the last 89 months, during which time average was ~6900
We don't seem to be having a spring "selling" season - we're having a spring "listing" season
But of course, someone will certainly point out that the median price is still going up. Which means - um, well - I am not sure. I can't buy or sell a "median" house. Median price is still going up in San Diego too. I wouldn't buy a house there with your money.
Comments?
Comments
Windermere is now at 11,004 listings for King County.
Seattle is 3,348, split 1,221 condos and 2,127 sfr.
A 1% increase for Seattle, in less than a day?
Ummm, bubblecious.
This could get exciting.
I did like the analogy, this Spring has been a "listing season vs. selling season." Don't forget about the underground market of FSBO's that are on the market. We have a couple on tap to close end of month.
We could have an increase in median price if there is a fundamental shift in the distribution of the closing price of sold homes and yet still have a sinking market. If ratio of the rate at which higher priced homes being sold now to lower priced homes is higher than a year ago, then we would expect an increase in median price. This is true even if the comparable higher priced home is being sold for less than what it was a year ago.
I saw a post on a different blog someplace that showed exactly this phenomenon was happening in the silicon valley. It would be interesting to see a histogram of home prices over time. Is there database someplace that lists all of the closing prices of SFR in king co or seattle along with their date? Or is this sort of info only available to card-carrying NWMLS members?
Another explanation for climbing median prices is that there are perks that are being handed out to buyers that were not being given away two years ago. How many condos do you think sold two years ago came with a free 42" flat panel TV?
Today, I'm already at 121 properties. I've been generally getting around 70 to 80 per day, give or take.
This is what I am see too. I just biked along West Lake Samammish Parkway from Marymoor Park to I90 and was astonished at how many "sold" stickers were up in the last week. On top of that, ziprealty shows that the inventory is remaining tight in East Bellevue (98008), even dipping below the 60 mark yesterday. By comparison, ziprealty was reporting almost 100 listings for 98008 in November.
and then this one... Yeah, but those are the cheap ones.
Oh, and by the way - sales are down, and inventory is up. That's what the MLS says, anyway (-5% and +34% respectively on a YoY basis as of last month).
So if I read between the lines, I see good sales of high-priced homes, weak sales of lower priced homes - and a decreasing number of overall sales.
Any questions about why the median is still going up? Anyone want to claim it means much?
Well, they should be cheap, but the few I've actually looked into are asking rediculous prices. There's $300k (IMO) houses up for $500k. And they aren't selling. I wonder why.
The Real Estate Advertising Rag actually had the explanation to that in its coverage yesterday.
In the 1993-99 data that The Tim has in his spreadsheet (which is, I will grant you, incomplete) inventory was only this high for 2 months (june and july of 1996)
in that year, median was up 4%, Case Shiller
Link
I also think that the condo market isn't the same as SFDs and that we need to separate these two products to really understand what is happening.
Isn't it normal for there to be pretty substantial rises in inventory during the spring and summer? It's possible to have a big change on a week-to-week basis, but if we look at the percentage increase since the beginning of the year, isn't it similar to what we've seen in previous years?
The YTD gain is even more impressive.
2006 (1/1-5/21) 25% increase in inventory
2007 (1/1-5/21) 46% increase in inventory
We won't know how many of these sellers are "serious" until the late fall. It may just be that this year people are listing their homes and rentals hoping to hook a sucker but not really trying to sell.
Just in my neighborhood I've seen 4 properties go for rent, then for sale, then one went back for rent again. If you look up "waffle" in the dictionary, there's a picture of these owners.
Interesting... That's a 54% yoy increase in the total number of increase in homes.
My goal now is to start tracking amounts of discounts, I'll post this when I get the spread but so far, roughly, in the up to 550K group-
amount : % reduced
1-9K : 28%
10-20K : 38%
21-40K : 32%
50K+ : 2%
Surprises were the 21-40K, I didn't think there would be so many, so I'm going to break this down more. Also I have spent a little time breaking out condo from single family. I'll post results when I get something a bit more substantial.
On the side what I have noticed thus far, quite a few listings are hugging the highs at 20 and 40K reductions. I also noticed additional incentives including a 5K and 10K buyer bonus.
What this tells me, subjectively speaking, coming from living in two other parts of the country which had "hot" markets... I never saw 30% of inventory reduced especially with reductions at 25K. People would have laughed at the wishful thinking.
But much like these other areas... here in Seattle, not to sound too cliche, I think the times they are a'changin'.
I predict record inventory by the end of July.
Going by Tim's spreadsheet - which admittedly only goes back to 1999 - that would be 9,176 KC SFR's, hit in Sep-02. Not sure if that is "all time" but I bet we'll blow through it and continue to grow up until Sept/Oct time frame.
This year there doesn't seem to be much decrease in inventory at all - but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another big jump in the first week of june.
I bet a June jump is pretty typical - families moving at the end of the school year.
BTW - today's count is 8562 SFRs in KingCo. Another ~150 houses last week
How does this data look for "months of supply"? Are we also going to see record MoS numbers? Or is MoS pacified by an increasing number of sales that keeps pace with the growing inventory?
Thanks,
Lukasz
Inventory of SFR's was over 8600 today. Woo hoo
I've been using this link at the Windermere.com site. Choose King County, all cities, unclick box next to condos, and update. As I said, I am not sure that it's 100% comparable, but it is sposta be MLS data. Every listing has an MLS #, so I figure it should be the same.
Today's SFR count:
KingCo = 8629
Seattle = 2147 (up 30% MoM!)
Inventory managed to keep climbing everywyhere - but Seattle SFR's are the big winner - up a whopping 32%, month over month. And if you don't think that's special, how about total inventory up 75% vs. last year!
I can see why Realtors (R) are talking about bidding wars, even hotter than it was this time last year, etc. Yup. cuz they're delusional.
Who wants to chase the market down? Anyone who has been waiting for the peak to put their house on the market will be doing it this year.
Party isn't quite over yet though, so I'm sticking with my prediction: next March is when we'll see real softening as the big push of new inventory hits the market next year. Unfortunately, this slowdown in RE will slow the local economy, and the problem will build on itself. The other bit of bad news for the bulls: when RE markets drop they overcorrect on the down side. Reverse froth. Try ordering that with your next latte.
If a recession hits us early 2008, I'd guess a bottom with a median price drop from $400,000 + in 2007 to under $300,000 in 2014. I'll start shopping for real estate in 2011. On the plus side for recent buyers: by 2020 or so we could be back up to where the market is today! Maybe earlier.