Patagonia Village: Post-Peak Condo Conversion in Woodinville
I drove by the apartment I used to live in over in Woodinville earlier this week (Washington Square Apartments), and there was a giant sign at the entrance, proudly announcing townhomes and condos for sale in "Patagonia Village," a "new gated-entry, 49-home condominium community."
I hadn't been by there in years, and was somewhat surprised to see that it had gone condo, so I shot the former owner an email to find out when that happened. His reply:
A brief scan over the King County records for the complex indicates that around 7 of the 49 units have sold so far. Here are a few of their current listings on Redfin:
Unit 27 is most similar to the one we used to live in. We paid $850 a month in rent (month-to-month in 2004), and about $50 a month for utilities. If you paid asking price for that same unit today with a 5% 30-year mortgage and 20% down ($56k) your total monthly bill would be around $2,000 (after HOA, taxes, tax savings, etc.).
I'm pretty certain rents haven't gone up that much in Woodinville. A cursory search of rent.com shows similarly-sized apartments in the area with current asking rents of ~$1,100.
Should be an interesting one to watch as sort of an experiment of what happens with a condo conversion started so incredibly late in the cycle.
I hadn't been by there in years, and was somewhat surprised to see that it had gone condo, so I shot the former owner an email to find out when that happened. His reply:
Wow. Late 2007. So, months after the peak was clearly in here in the Seattle area, some condo converter was still giddily swigging the Kool-Aid.We sold it in late 2007 to the last condo converter in existence.
A brief scan over the King County records for the complex indicates that around 7 of the 49 units have sold so far. Here are a few of their current listings on Redfin:
- Unit 23, 876 sqft 2 bed 1.5 bath, $255k, 202 days on market.
- Unit 31, 876 sqft 2 bed 1.5 bath, $255k, 221 days on market.
- Unit 27, 981 sqft 2 bed 1.5 bath, $279k, 235 days on market.
- Unit 35, 699 sqft 1 bed 0.75 bath, $221k, 302 days on market.
Unit 27 is most similar to the one we used to live in. We paid $850 a month in rent (month-to-month in 2004), and about $50 a month for utilities. If you paid asking price for that same unit today with a 5% 30-year mortgage and 20% down ($56k) your total monthly bill would be around $2,000 (after HOA, taxes, tax savings, etc.).
I'm pretty certain rents haven't gone up that much in Woodinville. A cursory search of rent.com shows similarly-sized apartments in the area with current asking rents of ~$1,100.
Should be an interesting one to watch as sort of an experiment of what happens with a condo conversion started so incredibly late in the cycle.
Comments
$850 / 1br - Patagonia Village - 1st Month Free! $500 moves you in! (Woodinville)
$1040 / 2br - Patagonia Village - 1st Month Free! $500 moves you in! (Woodinville)
Gee, tough choice. Buy, locking myself into monthly costs around $2,000, or rent for $1,040...
I am seeing a ton of this in the North Seattle neighborhoods I am watching. At least 1/2 dozen houses in my price range that that were listed on MLS for 100-200 days (or more) are now on Craigslist.
I know immediatly because the photos from Redfin are the same! And yes, the mortgage/rent ratio is still way out of line....
So, does this lead to lower rents as more places go on the market, or is that extra inventory soaked up by all of the potential buyers who are on the sideline? Time will tell...
Update:
Whoa.
I just looked a little more at that place. Back when it first went condo, 2-bed, 1-bath units like the one my roommates and I lived in were selling for $200k.
Check out unit Q-101.
Sold September 2006 for $200,900.
Foreclosed on in September 2008.
Listed on the market October 2008. Here's the asking price history:
Oct 16, 2008 Listed $179,900
Oct 28, 2008 Price Changed $174,900
Nov 16, 2008 Price Changed $169,900
Dec 01, 2008 Price Changed $165,000
Dec 16, 2008 Price Changed $154,900
Jan 05, 2009 Price Changed $144,900
Jan 20, 2009 Price Changed $129,900
Feb 03, 2009 Price Changed $114,900
Feb 18, 2009 Price Changed $105,000
48% off, and still no bites. Ouch!
Sadly, I dated someone back in 2006 that was in the process of purchasing one of the 1-bedroom (466 sq/ft) units when we met. It was priced around $140K.
The four Patagonia units listed above are all still on the market, each with piddly little price drops of less than $20k. Seven additional units have since been put on the market as well, bringing the total active on the MLS to 11: Units #12, 17, 23, 27, 31, 32, 35, 36, 41, 51, 66.
Meanwhile, the county records don't seem to show any more as having sold than when I created this thread in December
Also, the Timber Ridge unit mentioned above eventually sold for $90,000 -> over 55% off the 2006 sale price. Ouch.
Looks like the Patagonia developer has completely given up trying to sell those things. They never sold more than the 7 that were sold when I posted back in December 2008. A craigslist search shows their current rental offerings.
As for the Edgewood / Timber Ridge fiasco, this one popped up today and caught my attention: 14112 NE 181st Pl Unit G104 - Asking price $198,000.
That just so happens to be the exact unit I lived in back in 2002 when it was the Edgewood apartments. My roommates and I paid $750/mo in rent + utilities. It sold post-conversion in 2006 for $200,000.
At $200k in 2006, the monthly PITI + HOA on that place (assuming 20% down--$40k) was probably in the ballpark of $1,600. $750 vs. $1,600. Absolutely insane.
That unit is the same floorplan as the unit I mentioned above that sold mid-2009 for $90k. And the same floorplan as Unit B205, currently on the market at $100k.
At $100k today, you're looking at a monthly PITI + HOA of roughly $950 (only $850 if you have the same $40k to put down). Considering that this includes some of the utilities that we were paying on top of our $750/month rent, that almost seems reasonable.
I have to wonder, why would an agent even waste their time listing at a price double the price of recently-sold and on-market comps? Especially in a place like this where every unit is nearly identical. Hilarious.