DOW 51% Off Peak
I just had to update that 32% off topic. It's just so last autumn.
I'm just trying to get my head around today's news. Citigroup no operational losses if you ignore the things where they are losing hundreds of billions of dollars, and the market had a 5% rally? Ignore this news, it's impossible that this is what sparked the rally.
This wasn't a rally on Citi, it was a rally on fear of missing the bottom. I'm just trying to figure out if it's the major bear market rally or just a one day blip. For my money, the major uptick out of a free fall screams temporary bounce to me.
I'm just trying to get my head around today's news. Citigroup no operational losses if you ignore the things where they are losing hundreds of billions of dollars, and the market had a 5% rally? Ignore this news, it's impossible that this is what sparked the rally.
This wasn't a rally on Citi, it was a rally on fear of missing the bottom. I'm just trying to figure out if it's the major bear market rally or just a one day blip. For my money, the major uptick out of a free fall screams temporary bounce to me.
Comments
That said, I do expect that a significant rally that will last for at least a couple months isn't too far in our future. I just think we haven't quite hit the low before the "real" rally. Of course, I don't think any of these rallies will mark the end of the bear market. It's just that stocks (and economies) don't move in straight lines.
You can thank me later.
I wouldn't call it likely, but it's certainly possible.
This is a good possibility. Long periods of economic decline/stagnation are rarely uniformly "bad". Japan has had periods of a year or so where the economy was recovering over the last 20 years. Likewise, the great depression was actually two recessions, with a small recovery in between.
Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see a triple or quadruple dip depression over the next few years, with plenty of false bottoms. There is a lot of ground to cover to get to DOW 1500.
The people rushing to buy C (along with BAC, MS, etc) based on a bank being "operationally profitable" are desperate for some good news. They don't care (or don't understand) that the good news is a mirage. C is still insolvent even after .gov giving them another pile of money.
Yesterday was an illusion, a blip. Everyone is taking their profits and the market is down again.
What strikes me as even odder is that I tried to track down what the real numbers were on this '"operational profitability'" (intentional triple-quotes there). I couldn't do it yesterday. All the news just said reports of a profitable first two months.
Today, I finally spotted a little skepticism (remarks like sure your turn a profit if you ignore losses), and the tidbit that this information was all part of an internal memo. In other words, one exec sent some other execs an email that he saws some numbers which made it look like Citi's operations were profitable, and somehow that leaked.
I might have gotten this wrong, but is this how desperate the market is? Is unsubstantiated news from an insolvent bank that it might take a few extra weeks to finally crash "major good news"?