Very strange, just a couple weeks ago I was reading Ardell's comments and thought that I should look her up when I get off the fence.
Now I come on SB and see Kary K commenting over here and seeming very thoughtful and reasonable, while Ardell seems to have gone the opposite direction... Maybe they all (SREP) take turns playing good cop, bad cop
...BTW, despite Leanne's hysterical rant the other day...
Actually, it seems it may be more reasonable then she first sounded.. though still a little out there.. after 3 pages of comments it seems it's this:
- Real Estate sales volume (houses, land, commercial, etc) drive jobs.
- Price is not critical.
In other words when she talks about "saving" real estate / housing, all she means in that the sales volume comes back up.. not that prices remain stable, or go back to what they were in the boom times.
It still seems pretty self serving (as volume makes up an agents pay check), but more reasonable then I had though her argument was when it all started.
Volume will return when prices return to reasonable levels and lending gets more fluid. Though it'll probably never return to the 2005-2007 levels, at least not soon.
Volume will return when prices return to reasonable levels and lending gets more fluid. Though it'll probably never return to the 2005-2007 levels, at least not soon.
maybe sooner? I read somewhere that in California the volume has started to go back up, but mostly due to "investors" purchasing foreclosures.. Prices continue to decline.
Apparently Ardell didn't like being called out for missing the top of the market.
Here's one of the posts she deleted (Not mine). It was rather off topic, but a fair question.
Ardell,
Thanks for skirting the issue by invoking the Pope.
Are you so full of yourself to admit, at the very least, that YOU were WRONG when it came to seeing the peak in all those stats you claim to be reviewing? Your credibility is going to take a HUGE hit when you finally fess up to what you have been alluding to and what is plain to see on certain RE related websites.
Please explain why anyone should take your bottom call seriously, when you so obviously and personally missed the peak call?
I mean, if you have spent THREE years going over stats, how could you be blindsided with what may be, as you alluded, shortly befalling you?
From what I can see, you expect people to believe that your research is supposed to be infallible and believable when it comes to the bottom call, but not the top call?
Don't make me laugh!
How many of your clients know how badly you missed the peak and the published result of that, apparent, incorrect calling of same? Or are those RE websites that I am seeing an interesting stat. on all wrong? If so, please feel free to correct me.
I still don't understand her theory as to why this is the bottom. I mean, she pulls these 20% and 37% off peak numbers out and says because that's where sales are right now that magically makes it the bottom? There have been sales all the way down this mountain.
Regarding Ardell's pending foreclosure - based on her earlier comments in this forum, she walked away with a good amount of cash at closing. I see two possibilities here - either the market value of the house is well below what she paid, or she spent the cash out making interest payments on the loan - or maybe both.
For someone that was considered a "most influential real estate blogger" back in 2006, her credibility is completely shot. I suspect a lot of people here saw her as a poster child of everything that was wrong with the RE industry this decade, myself included. In that regard it's hard empathize. She hinted early on that if the market value dropped below what she paid that walking away was justified, so this is no surprise.
If you haven't been to the mall lately - I think the thing that will amaze you is that the parking lots are all full. Northgate, Southcenter, Bellevue Square. Every time I drive by one of these places, I am astonished at how many people it appears are there.
I don't know if they are buying, but they sure as hell are shopping! Maybe it's like some sort of "ghost limb" phenomenon - where people still go to the mall because they have no idea what else to do.
The parking lots at the biggest shopping centers are still filling up on weekends, the food courts bustle with hungry customers and walkways are crowded with gangly teenagers and stroller-wielding moms.
Look closely, though, and you'll see there aren't many bags. That's because shoppers at some of the country's busiest retail centers aren't buying. Not much, anyway.
If that sounds like grim news for retailers, consider what their landlords are facing. Unless shoppers begin spending again -- soon -- some experts worry the great American hangout may be in jeopardy.
Now I come on SB and see Kary K commenting over here and seeming very thoughtful and reasonable, while Ardell seems to have gone the opposite direction... Maybe they all (SREP) take turns playing good cop, bad cop
Yeah, I was surprised to see Kary over here as well. It's almost like those guys are actually interested in selling houses to us dirty renters now that we're the only people who still have any money.
Anyways, good job to all. You've obliterated the competition, as the less realistic blogs are all failing due to the fact that they were 100% completely wrong.
Me, I'm amazed at how many blogs and "alternative" news sources people quote to me as references for why real estate values will be lucky to avoid hitting zero, why any economic recovery plan is doomed to failure, and how we'll be lucky to avoid become a second-world nation.
All of which might come true. Why it's worth your time to research it is beyond me.
Mack is either intellectually bankrupt or just plain oblivious. If any of those things turn out to be true, it's well worth one's time to understand the threat and prepare for it. It's only a waste of time if everything turns out peachy.
My favorite was Larry chiming in with the anonymous poster thing again. That's sooo 2008.
Well...I guess they just want to get to know their audience a little better
Perhaps the commenters should play tit-for-tat.
Here is a nice list of questions to ask them. I personally don't care to play in their sandbox.
1. What are your RE holdings?
2. When did you purchase them and for how much?
3. Have you used your home or any properties as an ATM?
4. What kinds of mortgages do you have and what is your total debt load?
5. Are you currently in default on any of your properties?
6. How many of your previous clients are currently in default?
7. Are you personally vested in the "homeowners" bailout because you need one yourself?
They're all RE related questions, and I certainly would want to know the answer to these questions before I took their advice regarding the biggest purchase I would ever make....because nice headshots and cheerful "bios" just don't cut it for me.
4. What kinds of mortgages do you have and what is your total debt load?
Now that Precious has found lifetime public housing in a maximum security facility, the real question is – what kind of fool puts their own money into a deal when they don't have to?
I suppose that if one is awash with cash, then one may be looking to diversify. You're not the one, so it doesn't matter.
Money to buy real estate is cheap. Interest rates minus deductibility minus inflation equals essentially two percent money. You wanna put 20% down? Fine, but the premium for going zero down is minimal, and you can keep peeling the extra cash flow off of the mountain of cash you have saved for the next ten years or so.
If the market goes up, great. If it goes down, it's not your money at risk. "Oops, looks like the house is worth less than you lent me on it. Boy, I do hope you get your money back. My money is vacationing, in Switzerland, I think, or in the Cayman Islands. I might have to go join it. Good luck in selling this house, Lender. Tell the next buyer about the little fire I set that night I dropped the crack pipe."
For those who want to tell me about how their investment strategy outperforms the real estate market, have at it. Although, I'd suggest that if you're really doing so well at investing, you should be able to afford to buy whatever home you like and not worry so much about the price tag and whether it may lose 10% in value over the next few years and how high real estate commissions are.
Happy solstice.
Posted by Mack McCoy at December 20, 2007 12:54 p.m.
Man, I cannot believe I have missed all this fun you guys have been having over the last couple of years. Just catching up on some of the threads here, and they are quite entertaining.
The posts from "Eleua" in early April are quite fascinating (page 19). Obvioulsy this guy has some deep economics background as he pretty much nailed exactly what was happening and what was going to happen.
The really funny part are the replies from the realtors, especially KLK. He seems to have a nasty habit of calling people with real economic understanding as naive or ill-informed. Is that man ever correct?
This quote was particularly CLASSIC!!!
Eleua wrote (4/29/08):
Oil and commodities are presently on a speculative run because the FED is pumping huge amounts of money into our rancid banking system to forstall the reset. The primary dealers are taking the billions from the FED and chasing the latest bubble. They are short US Treasuries and long stocks and are getting hammered on that trade. They only have one play left and that is commodities.
When the FED starts to drain, you had better be clear of any commodity trades or you will take the express bus to Pioneer Square.
It is amazing how dead-on he was with his commodities bubble call. The oil price hit $150 soon after than fell like a rock to $40 where it is today.
But of course KLK thought he knew better...
Posted by Kary L. Krismer at 4/29/08
Oh, and I completely disagree with your explanation as to why oil prices are so high today. But that too is yet another matter entirely.
LOL!!! Seriously, is this guy ever right? More importantly, does he ever admit he was wrong, when he CLEARLY is so frequently?
Yup, I miss Eleua, and wish he'd come around more often. But at this point a lot of folks know how the story ends, they're just waiting for the inevitable to conclude so everybody can get on to the next phase.
Reply to Tim's Comment on the Main Page about the Queen Anne Condos and Ardell's "gushing" praise and what her motives are and an assertion that her motives about her praise are on topic or not:
********************************
Tim,
I think if you are being honest with yourself and the readers here, you would acknowledge that you brought it up first by pointing out the "gushing" praise when these condos first came out in your original post. If you hadn't done that, then Ardell may not have come over here to "complain" that you mischaracterized her comments and then you wouldn't haven clarified them, and then others wouldn't have dismantled her assertions that she only did it for the "love of architecture".
It seems completely on topic when your original post, to a degree, mocked her gushing.
It's your blog and you are, obviously, free to enact any "on topic" comment policy that you wish, but when you bring up "over the top gushing" in the original post, why wouldn't the motives behind that gushing be fair game as well?
Seems to me that if you wanted to quash it, you should have told Ardell she was off topic for rebutting your original assertion, rather than continuing the debate with her.
Ahh, I see now why you removed this comment from the post. Here's my response, which I also emailed to you:
I can see your point, I guess I just saw the whole Ardell discussion to be tangential to the subject of the post, which was the Queen Anne HS condo auction. Yes, I mentioned her gushing, and yes, I responded to her in the comments. I foolishly thought that would be the end of it. When it took over the comment thread, that's when it seemed to me to be getting out of hand.
Just my $0.02, but I can see it from your perspective as well. Also, I don't know why you deleted the text of this comment on the blog. It's fair criticism.
BTW, if you are waiting for mortgage rates to drop this year, don't count on it!
Inflation is becoming a huge concern. Rates are up dramatically since the end of January and they are likely to keep trending up for the remainder of this year.
Remember, as we have been reminded once a month for the past few years, Steve has never been wrong on his predictions. So if what you're experiencing is different than what he predicted you must not be in touch with reality.
Re: the market and signs of life. I had one of those late Sunday afternoon calls today, from a client who went to an open house, in a house that was about $100,000 more than what they had indicated they wanted to spend. Naturally, they love it. Frustratingly there are other offers. There are signs in the market that we're at the bottom -- Heavy traffic + multiple offers = bottom. We can hope!
This, on a thread about how carpools are...er.. might.. be ruining the economy.
They really are somewhere else on that latest post. Leanne goes from using the survey to launch her point, then, after being proved completely wrong by Per Se, moves to calling the survey useless. Meanwhile Mack keeps up the steady beat of not contributing anything except whining about anons. They basically have their noses rubbed in how wrong they are but they keep coming back. It's incredible.
Someday they will beat this horrible boogey-man called "Internet."
Someday they will beat this horrible boogey-man called "Internet."
Exactly.. I've started working on resisting the urge to post there because:
1) As proven by the Per_Se to Leanne discussion, it's pointless. (sorta like that saying, "Don't wrestle with a pig in mud.." )
2) If no one post, maybe it'll die and go away.
But I can't stop from going back, it's like watching a collection of train wrecks in slow motion.
Someday they will beat this horrible boogey-man called "Internet."
Exactly.. I've started working on resisting the urge to post there because:
1) As proven by the Per_Se to Leanne discussion, it's pointless. (sorta like that saying, "Don't wrestle with a pig in mud.." )
2) If no one post, maybe it'll die and go away.
But I can't stop from going back, it's like watching a collection of train wrecks in slow motion.
that might as well be a private blog. the only commenters are the authors.themselves. only place where Mack doesn't find himself on the verge of being banned.
I get nervous even seeing Mack's name on SB -- I'm afraid that one of these days even he will join the wave of real-estate types who have immigrated to these shores so that these boards too will become a forum for his special combination of snideness, condescension, and faith-based economics.
So don't say his name! It's bad juju.
(I used to do it for the laffs, but I can't read that blog anymore either. Nice of the PI to provide the bandwidth that sustains their clubhouse though.)
Don't even waste a keystroke whining about how biased we are or how we don't provide a balanced picture - compared to Seattle Bubble, we're practically NPR over here!
But now that the market is slowly but surely deflating, and the "zestimate" of his condo is dropping dangerously close to what he paid in early 2006, suddenly now we need government intervention.
I'm afraid that one of these days even he will join the wave of real-estate types who have immigrated to these shores so that these boards too will become a forum for his special combination of snideness, condescension, and faith-based economics.
You just kill me, Civil Servant.
I think we've already made our quota here this month on snideness, condescension, and faith based economics.
Comments
Now I come on SB and see Kary K commenting over here and seeming very thoughtful and reasonable, while Ardell seems to have gone the opposite direction... Maybe they all (SREP) take turns playing good cop, bad cop
Volume will return when prices return to reasonable levels and lending gets more fluid. Though it'll probably never return to the 2005-2007 levels, at least not soon.
maybe sooner? I read somewhere that in California the volume has started to go back up, but mostly due to "investors" purchasing foreclosures.. Prices continue to decline.
Here's one of the posts she deleted (Not mine). It was rather off topic, but a fair question.
I still don't understand her theory as to why this is the bottom. I mean, she pulls these 20% and 37% off peak numbers out and says because that's where sales are right now that magically makes it the bottom? There have been sales all the way down this mountain.
For someone that was considered a "most influential real estate blogger" back in 2006, her credibility is completely shot. I suspect a lot of people here saw her as a poster child of everything that was wrong with the RE industry this decade, myself included. In that regard it's hard empathize. She hinted early on that if the market value dropped below what she paid that walking away was justified, so this is no surprise.
That said, I do feel bad for her. Kind of.
Yeah, I was surprised to see Kary over here as well. It's almost like those guys are actually interested in selling houses to us dirty renters now that we're the only people who still have any money.
Anyways, good job to all. You've obliterated the competition, as the less realistic blogs are all failing due to the fact that they were 100% completely wrong.
http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/real ... 162121.asp
Whooa! Quite a read, that one........
.
I'm a bit worried.
Mack is either intellectually bankrupt or just plain oblivious. If any of those things turn out to be true, it's well worth one's time to understand the threat and prepare for it. It's only a waste of time if everything turns out peachy.
At least it's entertaining reading.
Well...I guess they just want to get to know their audience a little better
Perhaps the commenters should play tit-for-tat.
Here is a nice list of questions to ask them. I personally don't care to play in their sandbox.
1. What are your RE holdings?
2. When did you purchase them and for how much?
3. Have you used your home or any properties as an ATM?
4. What kinds of mortgages do you have and what is your total debt load?
5. Are you currently in default on any of your properties?
6. How many of your previous clients are currently in default?
7. Are you personally vested in the "homeowners" bailout because you need one yourself?
They're all RE related questions, and I certainly would want to know the answer to these questions before I took their advice regarding the biggest purchase I would ever make....because nice headshots and cheerful "bios" just don't cut it for me.
The posts from "Eleua" in early April are quite fascinating (page 19). Obvioulsy this guy has some deep economics background as he pretty much nailed exactly what was happening and what was going to happen.
The really funny part are the replies from the realtors, especially KLK. He seems to have a nasty habit of calling people with real economic understanding as naive or ill-informed. Is that man ever correct?
This quote was particularly CLASSIC!!!
Eleua wrote (4/29/08):
It is amazing how dead-on he was with his commodities bubble call. The oil price hit $150 soon after than fell like a rock to $40 where it is today.
But of course KLK thought he knew better...
Posted by Kary L. Krismer at 4/29/08
LOL!!! Seriously, is this guy ever right? More importantly, does he ever admit he was wrong, when he CLEARLY is so frequently?
********************************
Tim,
I think if you are being honest with yourself and the readers here, you would acknowledge that you brought it up first by pointing out the "gushing" praise when these condos first came out in your original post. If you hadn't done that, then Ardell may not have come over here to "complain" that you mischaracterized her comments and then you wouldn't haven clarified them, and then others wouldn't have dismantled her assertions that she only did it for the "love of architecture".
It seems completely on topic when your original post, to a degree, mocked her gushing.
It's your blog and you are, obviously, free to enact any "on topic" comment policy that you wish, but when you bring up "over the top gushing" in the original post, why wouldn't the motives behind that gushing be fair game as well?
Seems to me that if you wanted to quash it, you should have told Ardell she was off topic for rebutting your original assertion, rather than continuing the debate with her.
This, on a thread about how carpools are...er.. might.. be ruining the economy.
If you want some real mind bending, go back and read the article + comments before that. ( found here: http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestate/archives/167282.asp )
It was enough to make me give up posting on SREP.
Someday they will beat this horrible boogey-man called "Internet."
Exactly.. I've started working on resisting the urge to post there because:
1) As proven by the Per_Se to Leanne discussion, it's pointless. (sorta like that saying, "Don't wrestle with a pig in mud.." )
2) If no one post, maybe it'll die and go away.
But I can't stop from going back, it's like watching a collection of train wrecks in slow motion.
So don't say his name! It's bad juju.
(I used to do it for the laffs, but I can't read that blog anymore either. Nice of the PI to provide the bandwidth that sustains their clubhouse though.)
It's too biased herefor him:
But now that the market is slowly but surely deflating, and the "zestimate" of his condo is dropping dangerously close to what he paid in early 2006, suddenly now we need government intervention.
You just kill me, Civil Servant.
I think we've already made our quota here this month on snideness, condescension, and faith based economics.