Seattle Is Special
Here's the proof.
Adjusted for seasonal variations, the jobless rate shot up to 8.4 percent in February, the state Employment Security Department reported today. That's six-tenths of a percentage point higher than January's rate of 7.8 percent, and well above the national unemployment rate of 8.1 percent.
Comments
In the Seattle metro area, the seasonally adjusted jobless rate jumped to 7.8 percent, from 6.7 percent in January and 4.1 percent in February 2008.
It appears Seattle is rather more average than exceptional in this regard, and the rest of the state is much worse off than the folks in the urban center.
Well, that's generally true. When unemployment is 5% in the state, it's probably 4% in Seattle and 6% elsewhere. I actually don't think either number is that troubling. What I find more shocking is the recent rate of increase. A 3.7% loss in employment over a year is troubling, but a 1.1% rise in 31 days is downright shocking. It's not a trend that can possible last for long, but if losses just keep the Jan->Feb pace two more months we're looking at double digit unemployment.
Seattle is decidedly not doing especially well this recession, but we won't know for perhaps a year whether or not it will do especially poorly.
There is a lot of fat in the economy yet to be shed. I predict the official unemployment rate to go up to 12-14% before it plateaus.
I wonder what kind of unemployment would be caused if we truly did shed all the fat in the economy. I bet if you simply eliminated redundant middle management you could push unemployment up to 12% (both private and government entities). That's without even touching the issue of what's truly fat. For instance, how many Starbucks does one city (or intersection for that matter) really need? How many mall stores do we really need that exclusively sell scented lotion? By my estimate, we could probably eliminate half the retail facilities in the nation without really inconveniencing anyone.
I think if you truly eliminated all the fat, we'd have official unemployment in excess of 30%.
I'm going to go with... zero.
softwarengineer could trim that fat and get 0% overpopulation. :shock:
I'm not a coffee drinker or scented candle sniffer, but there is more to life than just real estate blogs.
I should hope so! The point is, the retail sector is grossly overbuilt in this country. While there's no reason to assume that will change, there is also little reason to assume it won't.