March 2009 Foreclosures
3/1/2007 - 3/31/2007: 385
3/1/2008 - 3/31/2008: 476
3/1/2009 - 3/31/2009: 1089
129% increase over last year.
I think this is a new all time high.
The last few months:
2/1/2009 - 2/28/2009: 838
1/1/2009 - 1/31/2009: 909
12/1/2008 - 12/31/2008: 660
11/1/2008 - 11/20/2008: 540
10/1/2008 - 10/31/2008: 643
9/1/2008 - 9/30/2008: 607
8/1/2008 - 8/31/2008: 575
7/1/2008 - 7/31/2008: 728
3/1/2008 - 3/31/2008: 476
3/1/2009 - 3/31/2009: 1089
129% increase over last year.
I think this is a new all time high.
The last few months:
2/1/2009 - 2/28/2009: 838
1/1/2009 - 1/31/2009: 909
12/1/2008 - 12/31/2008: 660
11/1/2008 - 11/20/2008: 540
10/1/2008 - 10/31/2008: 643
9/1/2008 - 9/30/2008: 607
8/1/2008 - 8/31/2008: 575
7/1/2008 - 7/31/2008: 728
Comments
Tim, you should post a photo of the ceremony - proof speculative bubbles can have happy endings.
I'll have to ask my wife.
Unrelated question. Do you watch "Big Love"?
No.
Unrelated question: is your wife bisexual?
Your title heading is misleading. You have not posted the foreclosure rates. You have posted the Notice of Trustees sale filed, which are only people who are late on the mortgage payments. Actual foreclosures are filed under Trustees Deeds.
You do Seattle Bubble no favor in giving misleading data on a well respected site for statistics.
And Jillayne,
... your message is ...bizarre?
It is my thing that I do mostly for me. Pay attention if you find it useful. Otherwise, leave me alone.
If you align NTS filings with Trustee Deed filings 3 months later, you find that about 40% of NTS become an actual foreclosure.
When the humor of your exchange with Jillayne is missed, I think you can expect spelling flames next...
I say keep up the good work.
The foreclosure process in Washington State is regulated under the RCW's and requires a certain process.
Once a foreclosed property is taken over by a bank or investor it is filed in the county records under a Trustee's Deeds.
There are other possible deeds, such as Deed's in Lieu of Foreclsoure where a homeowner gives the property back to the bank voluntarily so as to not have a foreclosure on their credit report. Also Bargain and Sale Deeds, which are usually properties sold at the courthouse steps.
But all foreclosed properties are recorded with a new deed called Trustee's Deed.
The question as to why the actual foreclosure rates seem low is a good question. Notices jumped sharply (almost 30%) in January. There is a 4 month lag between Notices Filed and Trustee's Deeds filed, so April's numbers should be very telling. Will the foreclosure jump 30% as well? We'll have to wait and see.
I can tell you that many of the potential foreclosure properties are coming on the market as short sales. As those are absorbed through sales, it could keep the amount of actual foreclosures down.
April, May and June numbers will give us a clearer picture.
Actually I graphed out the lag time and it lines up with 4 months. Also the correct coversion rate into foreclosures is about 25%.
See my graph here. I should have March's numbers posted by the end of the week.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_qOT_WZGcHPo/S ... 7-2009.PNG
I am still confused. Are you saying that not all properties that go into foreclosure have NTS filings beforehand?
All properties that which a bank wants to foreclosure on will receive the initial "notice of trustee's sale".
However, several things can take place between the time of the notice and the sale.
Deed in Lieu
Loan Modification
Sale of home/short sale
Homeowner cures default
If none of the above happen, the property is taken over by the bank (or Trustee) on the "foreclosure date", and they will try and sell it on the courthouse steps. If it is sold there, the new owner takes title under "Bargain and Sale Deed".
If the property doesn't sell there, the bank takes title under "Trustee's Deed".
With the large rise in Notices, I wonder how many are actually making it to the courthouse steps? I haven't been down there to watch what is happening of recent.
Ok. I think I understand now. There cannot be a foreclosure until there is an NTS filing first. However, not all NTS filings result in foreclosures.
Hmmm... Maybe some things like "Deed in Lieu" would never show up either in the NTS or the foreclosure statistics, leading to an under-reporting of delinquencies.
A NTS is generally filed 90 days prior to the auction, so I think 3 months is better.
There were 4330 NTS filed from 6/1 - 12/31/08. From 9/1 - 3/31/09, there were 1651 tustee deeds. That works out to 38%
Alan has been posting the NTS numbers like clockwork each month for the past 6 months or so. I was merely expressing my extreme gratitude for his work as this saves me the time from having to do it myself. I have three classes to prepare for this week and give Alan and SB credit for the stats. Thank you, Alan!!!
Yes, there is one other way that a foreclosure could happen without a Notice of Trustee Sale (NTS) being recorded. Lenders have the option of turning a deed of trust into a mortgage instrument in the event the lender chooses to foreclose judicially (by going to court.) This rarely happened during the bubble run-up because lenders were lucky enough to sell the home at auction and recoup their costs. Here is an example where a lender may choose to foreclose judicially: Lender has evidence that the borrower has committed fraud or other egregious acts and the lender also has evidence that the borrower has other assets.
I would take a guess that judicial foreclosures would be so low as to not effect the statistics too much. However, we should try to find out because it would be interesting to know.
Alan has given us NTS numbers, JJL has given us Trustees Deed numbers. We have those numbers for now.
What I'd like to see is a comparison to 2007. The question I'm asking the data is: What percentage of NTS ended up as Trustee Deeds in 2007 v. 2008?
My guess is that the percentage in 2008 is much higher than 2007.
We should also be tracking the number of bank-owned REO listings in each county to see if we can figure out if the banks are holding back REO inventory.
It is sort of like looking at pending sales when sales keep falling through.
For residential homes, most all foreclosed homes will first have a Notice of Trustee Sale filed, and then finally a Trustee's Deed.
The NTS just notifies the world (creditors) that the home will be sold at auction in 90 days.
The Trustee Deed transfers title from the owner back to the bank. Now the bank is holding title to the real property and can now convey title (sell!) the home.
Since most all residential mortgage loans use a Deed of Trust as their security instrument, we'll see the foreclosure process go through these motions: Notice of Trustee Sale, Trustee Deed.
I suppose it is possible for a bank to have used a mortgage instrument to encumber the property, however, that would be rare. In this case, the lender must go to court to foreclose; a much longer process. I would guess that the number of judicial foreclosures would be extremely low.
ALAN: I thought about you today. I was wondering what April NTS' look like at the 15 day mark and I thought, now who would know the answer? Of course! Alan!
King County through 4/15:
NTS = 454
TDS = 80
Looks like foreclosure rates continue to lower.