2009 Stock Market "Miracle"
The illusion of Anti-gravity explained:http://seekingalpha.com/article/163213-ten-reasons-for-an-imminent-stock-market-crash?source=from_friend
Favorite quote from article's reader comments: "Yes, it is hard to believe how "less worse than awful" news has pushed markets up 60% in six months."
"It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall."........B. Dylan
Favorite quote from article's reader comments: "Yes, it is hard to believe how "less worse than awful" news has pushed markets up 60% in six months."
"It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall."........B. Dylan
Comments
Very thought provoking piece.
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My favorite quote:
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.....The market has become delusional and is living in fantasyland in the same way people were dancing in the Titanic on the eve before it crashed into an iceberg.....
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I like the way the author points out that technical indicators fail to incorporate deteriorating fundamentals.
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I've come to the conclusion that the market is so manipulated by invisible sources that the average investor, like myself, will never comprehend the causes of market movements. I've been riding the recent upward trend with a small investment in a S&P Index fund, but I agree that it is probably a good time to get out. I sense the market is about to crash again, even though the trend indicators say otherwise, and crashes seem to happen in October with disproportionate frequency.
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However, despite the horrible fundamentals, I don't see another huge crash. There really isn't a "good investment" right now - the safe investments (CDs, etc) are barely paying any interest, real estate is a huge risk, precious metals are very high, etc. So I think people will keep dumping money into the stock market hoping to find winners.
"So you think irrationality can continue indefinitely? A permanently high plateau?"......just a couple years ago we had people on this board saying (with strong conviction) the very same thing about RE.
TJ....I also agree that the market is being artificially manipulated. Ya just gotta wonder to what degree. And by whom? (as if WE will ever know...)
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Otherwise, if you have time and a knack for research, investing in property tax liens can be lucrative. Some states are lien states and some states are deed states. WA is a deed state. What this means is: In WA, if you fail to pay your property taxes, you property will be auctioned off, unless you're mortgage holder pays it off. But in many other states, you are simply buying the property tax lien, you are paying the back taxes and penalties, and property tax liens get first priority, so if you buy the tax lien, the homeowner needs to pay you back plus a decent percentage of interest, very often 8, 10 or more annual interest rate, and if they don't pay you within 3 years ( varies by state), you can foreclose on the property. The downsides are that if you don't research the property carefully, you could be investing in something worthless, but well researched, you could do well.
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A few years back a coworker bought into one of those tax liens on some property in Oklahoma. If I understood correctly there was some kind of lottery involved. He felt lucky that he was selected. He ended up owning / controlling several hundred acres for a cash outlay of like about $8K and he acted like he had struck the the mother lode. I don't know how it turned out for him because he moved on with his career shortly after. At the time, it seemed like a very weird investment to me, but he was very happy about it.
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Thanx for the tip / reminder.
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Keep in mind that when general inflation is -4%, a CD returning 1% is effectively returning 5%, and 80% of that gain is tax-free. (I like deflation! Except wage deflation!) CD money earmarked for housing is effectively earning 13% mostly tax-free now, since house prices are down 11% YOY.
Irrationality has been pretty constant since at least the .com bubble began in the late 90s. It's just moved around.
I don't usually post financial things on this forum because there seem to be people here waiting for the chance to pick apart everyone's financial strategy, particularly laymen like me. But I will say that I have some money in municipal bonds at the moment, and they are doing far better than anything else I have in my somewhat limited portfolio. I'm sure there's something wrong with them that will be pointed out shortly, but that's my current experience.
I too have noticed muni bonds and muni bond funds are doing well. Muni-bond fund SHMMX is doing better right now than it ever has for the last nine years! Why is that? It went up 5% this last month alone.
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Of course that's typically why you get higher returns. More risk, more reward.
The article linked below explains the probable cause of the recent appreciation of muni-bond funds. It's a Wall Street Journal article and you may or may not be able to access the whole thing, but the title is informative enough. --- Is there a flight to perceived safety in muni-bond funds? Is this a sign of lessening confidence in future stock market gains?
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Muni Mutual Fund Inflows Up $1.8 Bln Latest Week - Lipper FMI
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I have been told and I have read that if you are going to invest in muni-bonds there is less risk if you invest in individual state or county type bonds and stay away from small community bonds. The problem with muni-bond funds is that they may include all sorts of higher risk bonds that are not readily notable.
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