short-term effects of 10-year yield on housing sales
As has been discussed in other posts on this forum, the 10-year treasury yield hit a 5-year high yesterday. Many savvy readers know that there is a pretty good correlation between the yield and interest rates for 30 year mortgages. The must-read blog Calculated Risk has predicted that 30-year mortgage interest rates could be as high as 7% by the end of the week.
Now some have predicted that this spells doom for the housing market, and if rates continue to climb I'm sure that's true in the long term. But I think that some movement to higher interest rates may spark a short-term buying frenzy. There are buyers on the sidelines waiting to see how this market plays itself out. But if they see that interest rates are climbing, some might jump into the market before they are "priced out forever". My guess is that you may see this phenomenon just as interest rates start to climb, because potential buyers that are watching interest rates will be most likely to act then.
Anyway, what I'm trying to say is that don't expect an increase in mortgage interest rates to immediately depress home sales. In fact, if an increase in interest rates is sustained, you may actually expect an initial increase, paradoxically.
Now some have predicted that this spells doom for the housing market, and if rates continue to climb I'm sure that's true in the long term. But I think that some movement to higher interest rates may spark a short-term buying frenzy. There are buyers on the sidelines waiting to see how this market plays itself out. But if they see that interest rates are climbing, some might jump into the market before they are "priced out forever". My guess is that you may see this phenomenon just as interest rates start to climb, because potential buyers that are watching interest rates will be most likely to act then.
Anyway, what I'm trying to say is that don't expect an increase in mortgage interest rates to immediately depress home sales. In fact, if an increase in interest rates is sustained, you may actually expect an initial increase, paradoxically.
Comments
Yeah, I don't mean that we'll see an increase in the median closing price. In fact, I think an increase in interest rates will give buyers even more bargaining power to negotiate a lower price, putting even more downward pressure on the median.
What I am saying is that we may see an increase in the number of sales, as people who are suckered by POF mentality fear getting locked in to a "high" interest rate decide that now is the time to buy before rates get too high.
I would also bet that as interest rates rise, there will be an even greater push for lender tightening. Those people on the sidelines better have a bucket of cash for the 20% down payment that lenders will soon demand, because the days of the no doc, neg am, 120% LTV loans are over.
I would expect that interest rates increasing a bit will be the same as the man shouting "fire" in the crowded theater. There might be a spike in sales as the doors open, but some folks are going to get trampled to death in the mad scramble for the exit.
But like you said, it will be hard to stop the carnage that would follow a sustained increase in mortgage interest rates. If the bond market falls to pieces just as tons of ARM reset, things will get ugly fast.
Beyond that, Re-Fi's have the most incentive to move NOW, since they don't have as much flexibility to "wait and see where rates go". It's not like they can decide to rent for another year and save up money.
A 39 bp raise of TNX in a week is devastating if you consider that it took the Fed about 3 months to do the same thing over a year ago. 82 lenders have exited the subprime market in 6 months. Spain just dumped 80 tons of gold over the last 3 months; Switzerland just announced that they'd be selling 250 tons over the next 2 years. All year long, people have been calling for the Fed to cut rates, but in the past few weeks, poeple are giving even odds of a rate raise before the year end. Sea changes are happening at a blistering pace.
I guess my thinking is that things are moving too fast for your short term theory to show up. The RE market seems to move ponderously slow, but I think we're getting to the part of the roller coaster where it picks up speed.