Related to: build or die...
Part of me thinks that the Home Building industry will be gone (or functioning at a minimum) in a few years if:
1) The Housing Market corrects itself
2) The illegal immigrants are sent home (or at least stopped at the border from now on).
Even without the above two events happening, it seems we are close to, or already have, hit the point where there are more houses/condos, then needed.
1) As the market corrects itself, the specuvestors and FBs will be even more pressed to rid themselves of their investments and second homes, continuing to put more consumables on the market.
2) If the illegals are sent home (or at a minimum not allowed in) then we're looking at a lot less consumers in the market.
Any one agree? Any thing obvious I am missing?
1) The Housing Market corrects itself
2) The illegal immigrants are sent home (or at least stopped at the border from now on).
Even without the above two events happening, it seems we are close to, or already have, hit the point where there are more houses/condos, then needed.
1) As the market corrects itself, the specuvestors and FBs will be even more pressed to rid themselves of their investments and second homes, continuing to put more consumables on the market.
2) If the illegals are sent home (or at a minimum not allowed in) then we're looking at a lot less consumers in the market.
Any one agree? Any thing obvious I am missing?
Comments
Illegal immigrants ARE the builders. They are much less the buyers.
I'd like to think that the immigration problem will (at least partially) solve itself as fewer undocumented workers are able to find gainful employment here in the construction industry.
Ron Paul is right, there have been too many financial incentives for illegals to emigrate here and start families. The housing slowdown at least helps remove one of these incentives.
I wonder if will see a migration of illegals from bubble popped areas such as Sacramento, to bubble frothing areas, such as ours (at least until very recently).
But when you do the rent/buy math, they make all the difference, and if you do the buy-to-rent-out-as-investment math, things look even worse if a big chunk of the renters leave the country.
However! I should say that no matter how bad and awful the next recession seems to us, they'll probably still stay. It's not like we're going to stop burning their food in our cars and make their prospects back home look any better than unemployment looks here.
But just to assuage your fear, people of illegal immigration status aren't locust- it is very unlikely they will leave blighted Sacramento and swarm on the bounty of Seattle raising realestate and stealing jobs in their biblical storm.
You know though if you are worried about illegal immigration you can always quit your job and work in theirs instead... you know "steal their job" as a day laborer, grape picker, dishwasher, hiding from the INS, usually without family, in a language you don't fully grasp. Fun stuff.
But then maybe I misunderstand... perhaps you are also implying illegal immigration for white color jobs? I suppose from our Northern border? Doesn't it always come down to those pesty Canadians in the end. I mean really when will they learn to stay in their own socialized medical facilities instead of running the border for our superior costs!
PLEEEASE let's keep things on this blog at the intellectual level I have come to enjoy- without socioeconomic stereotypes!! :roll:
wow is right...
It's an issue that crosses idological/political lines. Real Estate is but one resource affected. And the majority of NWderners on many other sites do not seem to agree with wow,or kilo. Whatever happens, it will be a noticable change from the status quo at least.
peace
Having lived in communities with the "8 to a bedroom," (literally next door) it seemed immigration illegal or otherwise seemed to stem a little more from the fact that people like cheap food, and our health care systems bites.
In the end there is one thing this pretty lame conversation reveals, history always repeats- we can always blame the immigrants; after all it's a sort of heritage on the west coast.
It's a lot easier to assume anyone who disagrees is placing stereotypical "blame." is racist, a neocon, etc. When it comes to the impact of and unprecidented number llegal aliens on a wide range of issues and resoruces. It's not as simplistic as you infer.
I think ultimately we stand on separate philosophical pastures... it seems we have a stalemate in our cognitive prejudices. I hold one idea as a truth based on personal experience, and you another. Eh- the world will still turn.
The irony of this discussion in my mind is something quite removed from our immediate debate. It is the inability of people on the west coast to actually acknowledge they have discrimination issues. Fine you don't like illegal immigrants, but fess-up to the truth. As if discrimination occurs only in the "backwater" southern states- or so many westerners assume. After all Seattle is so PC... so polite. Edward Murrow once said, "Everyone is a prisoner of his own experiences. No one can eliminate prejudices - just recognize them."
Yet as I understand the definition of discrimination, it is apparent in the use of this strings language you are objectifying others i.e. "illegals." By using this vocabulary you actually reduce the complexity you profess into a stereotype: and, this can be of people or of situations.
My point? Be mindful of your nomenclature when professing ideas... as the remarks above can be construed to a ugly end. In laymen terms- be careful of what you say and how you are saying it.
Oh and dude, save the sign out with peace after arguing a point, it's annoyingly passive-aggressive.
Here are some good web-sites for those who would like some statistical facts or/and differing opinions of this complex and heated issue:
http://www.migrationpolicy.org/
http://communityresourcebank.org
Just because someone refers to "illegals" as a short version of "illegal alien/worker" does NOT mean they're racist or a bigot.
Myself? I'm a legal alien, and I'm all for legislation that converts ILLEGALS to LEGALS so that the economy may move along and continue to depend on these hard working people.
I feel so F%$#ng special.
Our health care may suck donkey balls, but it's a lot better than the old, use a hammer for anesthesia and rub some dirt on that cut, health care in Mehico. Idiot. Our education system sucks too, what makes it worse is educating everyone, even if your child is a legal immigrant, your parents may not be and probably don't pay taxes. Which just snowballs an already broken system, you jackass.
And yes, I am directing these jibes to Klio.
Peace out, dude.
Oh and Jazen, History 101- who currently in the U.S. is not a descendant from emigrants? What's your point? Yet no one actually answers my questions, which makes me think this is all political ideological diatribe in the end, not actually humanistic observation.
I'm obviously hitting a sore spot in your mind somewhere if you are actually bothering to still write during your free time to this blog string. I could keep writing also, it's so easy to keep poking the finger... sadistic fun, but frankly I would rather do something else with my time, life is too short. So I'll sign out "it's all good man" so you can feel vindicated in your myopic dogma. Peace out yourself. (Yea, whatever.)
That was my point, most people in America are....IMMIGRANTS. There is a right way to immigrate to America and a wrong way.
I fart in your general direction.
I still love you though brother.
Peace
Out.
Dude, get a clue, and stop assuming that everyone who disagrees with you, and your perceptions of nothing really relevant to the topic, are somehow a lesser species. The South? Now you really are the wise one.
Your ignorance in your assumptions really shows. I grew up in the projects, I have probably had more experiences with the poor of all backgrounds in my little finger than your little vacation in Central America. Save your smugness for those who are impressed by it. I have seen devistaion in areas where the carrying capacity has been exceeded in this country and other countries.
Actually, we were kinda talking about the impact of ILLEGAL aliens on the housing market, remember?
peace, whether you like it or not.
Idiota.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/19375113
1) This is a housing bubble blog, both topics are non sequiturs.
2) Telling people they are racist does not fix anything. If anything, it only encourages the behavior.
3) Overwhelmingly, the people I know who grew up in the PNW are not discriminatory.
end transmission.
1. LEGAL ALIENS/IMMIGRANTS - Those that apply to come to the country, fill out the appropriate paperwork, enter at a United States point of entry and are inspected by Customs and Border Protection, and adhere to the conditions of their VISA and/or Green card.
2. ILLEGAL ALIENS/IMMIGRANTS - Those that do not petition to come to the United States, and enter the United States without being inspected.
The term "undocumented" is some B.S. far leftist term dreamed up by people like Klio to make themselves sleep better at night. The fact of the matter is that if you do not take the proper steps to come to this country LEGALLY, you are an ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT! DUH! Use whatever term you want to use to help you sleep at night Captain PC, but the fact of the matter is that these people are in fact in violation of U.S. federal law. Whether or not you agree with the law is irrelevant.
Lets call an apple an apple, and not call an apple a "red colored piece of fruit".
Lets call an apple an apple, and not call an apple a "red colored piece of fruit"."
Thank you. I'm left leaning myself (and also a legal immigrant) and really hate the whole "undocumented worker" nonsense. All it does it enrage the right-wing even MORE and makes it even less likely they'll accept some realistic and practical immigration reform.
I myself am a moderate lefty, but the party needs to get real when it comes to the PC B.S. that the it is spewing forth. If one can't call a spade and spade without hurting someone's feelings, what is the point of the 1st amendment? It's not like people on this forum are calling anyone by racial slurs.
While there are, of course, illegal immigrants breaking the law, studies show that illegal immigrants are in fact *more* likely to lay low and not get into trouble. It's mostly legal immigrants, second/third generation immigrants and citizens that are mostly breaking the law.
When you don't have to worry about being sent home, you're more likely to commit "minor" crimes.