The ironic part is that I got another job offer from a company I prefer to work for, and going to leave in 2 months. How about that for irony, lol.
However the new company is in the industry I want to work in (Im becoming a RE Agent...ok not really, lol). My overall compensation will be the same though (but structured differently, since Im currently just paid a flat hourly rate w/o benfits and the new job will have a ton of benifits).
synthetik - Im trying to learn humility (not being an arrogant bastard)...but its taking awhile, yet starting to see positive signs. Its a be-atch though sometimes because I know that Im giving up an easygoing job that pays extremely well for a lower paying hardworking job. However, it is a better career move and will pay much better in the long run (at least thats what I keep on telling myself, lol).
BTW: If anyone is looking for a good financial/business analyst job let me know...we are going to have an open FTE position soon and might need a contract worker as well (as Im currently doing what 3 people did 6 months ago). Have good Excel skillz (vlookup, pivot tables) and a business degree from a top tier college (like WAZZU)...ok AT&T isnt that picky, they hired me afterall, hey wait wheres the backspace button.
mike2 - I was being sarcastic about the college...yet still unofficially looking for someone to take over my position at At&T. It is probably a mid career position (yet I have only been out of college for 3 years from WSU making $40/hr). They are looking for a full time employee, yet might be looking for another contract worker as well...not totally sure.
Peoples, let me know if your interested...send me an email to gf3468@att.com
mike2 - It is $40/hr w/o benefits...however the contracting agency throughs in some vacation and other small bonus things. Overall I dont pay much for Ins (since Im young & a high deductible plan).
Not sure what the FT position pays, but probably close since its a perm position...I could have the FT position if I asked for it. Next week Im going to tell them Im leaving in 2 months (but Im the only one left and work well with them so I want to be able to train someone before I leave).
Like you mentioned about with or w/o benefits...my new job pays less yet has incredible benefits and in the specific industry I want to be in long term...so its worth it.
US Recession by June 2007 (originally made this in May 2006)
First YOY median housing price decline since Great Depression
House prices return to 2003 levels in some bubble markets
Stock Market crash in lending/mortgage/finance sector by 35%
Overall correction in stock market 20%+
Oil: $78/b
Gold: $700
Looking at how my predictions for 2007 are holding up.
Looks like I'm off a bit. The jury is still out on Recession by June 2007 as we are only able to see these things in rearview.
I believe we've had our first YOY housing decline since the GP.
Some markets in Florida and San Diego have returned to 2003 pricing. I've seen some 2002 prices.
Id' say we've had at least a 35% retraction in mortgage/lending/finance stocks. Still waiting for a general 'crash' in the broader markets.
Oil $98
Gold: $830
So I'm in the deflation camp (creation of money destroyed through less loan activity) for assets like houses, boats, cars, art.. I am seeing inflation in commodities due to oil scarcity. So far this is coming true. Stagflation?
If I'm wrong about Peak Oil, we should see commodities fall along with all other asset classes.
Not too many signs that peak oil is NOT a reality soon. C&C still peaked in '05 and Houston fog is apparently responsible for current inventory levels. Spooky...
1. Blogs banned for "national security" reasons
2. Government comes out with new slogan "We're All In This Together" as excuse to jack taxes to pay for Bush War and Bank Bailout
3. Cheney dies of heart attack to world wide celebration
4. U.S. enters recession
5. RE prices drop another 15% during year
6. Ads for "luxury items" and for travel increase
7. Financial meltdown spreads around world
8. Talk of a global currency as possible solution
9. Every talking head RE shill who in 2007 was a RE bull, now says "we saw it all along"
10. Government stages another terror event to try and mobilize country for continued "war" against....fill in the blank.
11. Camps for growing homeless population spring up with usual results...crime and disease
12. The same government and financial "leaders" who let this all happen start floating solutions that further erode our standard of living and personal freedoms
13. Most vocal opponents to Government/Financial industry have heart attacks, car wrecks, and plane crashes
It is going to be a bad year made worse by the simple fact that solutions will be put forward by the very same people on whose watch this all happened.
Finally, vindication. I'm sure KLK, Mack the Homeless and the other twerps over at Seattle PI Real Estate "Professionals" (ROFL!!!) blog will probably say that I'm a stopped clock.
Hosebags.
I sold quite a few put options yesterday, but am still holding some 2010 leaps as well as aprils because I think we'll see down 6000-7000 by next year. Financials have a long, long way to fall. The .gov thinks they can get lending started up again but they're only making it worse.
2. Government comes out with new slogan "We're All In This Together" as excuse to jack taxes to pay for Bush War and Bank Bailout
4. U.S. enters recession
6. Ads for "luxury items" and for travel increase
7. Financial meltdown spreads around world
9. Every talking head RE shill who in 2007 was a RE bull, now says "we saw it all along"
10. Government stages another terror event to try and mobilize country for continued "war" against....fill in the blank.
11. Camps for growing homeless population spring up with usual results...crime and disease
12. The same government and financial "leaders" who let this all happen start floating solutions that further erode our standard of living and personal freedoms
It is going to be a bad year made worse by the simple fact that solutions will be put forward by the very same people on whose watch this all happened.
Good job SeattleMoose! #10 actually happened when the US fomented the Russia/Georgia thing. Then McCain/Palin used it to scare up voters. Videos on youtube show the MSM interviewing Georgians. As soon as they say that the Russians were the good guys, they are cut off to a commercial break. The blank was filled in with Russia, the old bogeyman.
Unfortunately, there is nothing to celebrate about in this case with regards to being right...I feel vindicated but in a sad way.
I underestimated how quickly the stock markets would crash and overestimated how quickly RE would crash.
If there is a silver lining in all of this it is that people will once again be forced to live within their means and to be happy with the "little things" in life like friendships and family. I look at my parents generation who lived thru the great depression and it was not all bad. It made families closer, communities tighter, folks got more out of less, people became slimmer and in better shape, and they became a generation of frugal savers.
We are (and will be for several years) "taking our medicine" as a country and even as a world. But better sooner than later...
Comments
However the new company is in the industry I want to work in (Im becoming a RE Agent...ok not really, lol). My overall compensation will be the same though (but structured differently, since Im currently just paid a flat hourly rate w/o benfits and the new job will have a ton of benifits).
BTW: If anyone is looking for a good financial/business analyst job let me know...we are going to have an open FTE position soon and might need a contract worker as well (as Im currently doing what 3 people did 6 months ago). Have good Excel skillz (vlookup, pivot tables) and a business degree from a top tier college (like WAZZU)...ok AT&T isnt that picky, they hired me afterall, hey wait wheres the backspace button.
Still, it's hard to be humble when you are consistently right all the time. LOL
*as a side note, one of the wealthiest investors I've met graduated from there.
Peoples, let me know if your interested...send me an email to gf3468@att.com
Not sure what the FT position pays, but probably close since its a perm position...I could have the FT position if I asked for it. Next week Im going to tell them Im leaving in 2 months (but Im the only one left and work well with them so I want to be able to train someone before I leave).
Like you mentioned about with or w/o benefits...my new job pays less yet has incredible benefits and in the specific industry I want to be in long term...so its worth it.
Looking at how my predictions for 2007 are holding up.
Looks like I'm off a bit. The jury is still out on Recession by June 2007 as we are only able to see these things in rearview.
I believe we've had our first YOY housing decline since the GP.
Some markets in Florida and San Diego have returned to 2003 pricing. I've seen some 2002 prices.
Id' say we've had at least a 35% retraction in mortgage/lending/finance stocks. Still waiting for a general 'crash' in the broader markets.
Oil $98
Gold: $830
So I'm in the deflation camp (creation of money destroyed through less loan activity) for assets like houses, boats, cars, art.. I am seeing inflation in commodities due to oil scarcity. So far this is coming true. Stagflation?
If I'm wrong about Peak Oil, we should see commodities fall along with all other asset classes.
2. Government comes out with new slogan "We're All In This Together" as excuse to jack taxes to pay for Bush War and Bank Bailout
3. Cheney dies of heart attack to world wide celebration
4. U.S. enters recession
5. RE prices drop another 15% during year
6. Ads for "luxury items" and for travel increase
7. Financial meltdown spreads around world
8. Talk of a global currency as possible solution
9. Every talking head RE shill who in 2007 was a RE bull, now says "we saw it all along"
10. Government stages another terror event to try and mobilize country for continued "war" against....fill in the blank.
11. Camps for growing homeless population spring up with usual results...crime and disease
12. The same government and financial "leaders" who let this all happen start floating solutions that further erode our standard of living and personal freedoms
13. Most vocal opponents to Government/Financial industry have heart attacks, car wrecks, and plane crashes
It is going to be a bad year made worse by the simple fact that solutions will be put forward by the very same people on whose watch this all happened.
Finally, vindication. I'm sure KLK, Mack the Homeless and the other twerps over at Seattle PI Real Estate "Professionals" (ROFL!!!) blog will probably say that I'm a stopped clock.
Hosebags.
I sold quite a few put options yesterday, but am still holding some 2010 leaps as well as aprils because I think we'll see down 6000-7000 by next year. Financials have a long, long way to fall. The .gov thinks they can get lending started up again but they're only making it worse.
Good times.
I underestimated how quickly the stock markets would crash and overestimated how quickly RE would crash.
If there is a silver lining in all of this it is that people will once again be forced to live within their means and to be happy with the "little things" in life like friendships and family. I look at my parents generation who lived thru the great depression and it was not all bad. It made families closer, communities tighter, folks got more out of less, people became slimmer and in better shape, and they became a generation of frugal savers.
We are (and will be for several years) "taking our medicine" as a country and even as a world. But better sooner than later...