I checked and he's still posting on his business' forum http://www.djangobooks.com/forum/, so he's still around. Maybe he senses the tide has turned and he doesn't want to come out to play with the bubble crowd?
Didn't he have some bets on this blog that should be coming due?
He did have some bets, but I would expect him to show up for them. He never bet for a condition, only that several of the regulars would be wrong. And several of them were...to a degree. Most of the bets were about things like when we'd hit 0% appreciation and the like. All are coming true, but the bubble-heads making the predictions were usually 3-9 months ahead of the actual timing. That should have been enough for him to rub their noses in it for a bit.
Hey guys...been super busy! Business has quadrupled for me so I hardly have time to breath. But I did see this:
Prices have a hit a new peak...I can't believe it! SFH at $481K!!!
Housing Prices in Western Washington Still Rising
Despite Fewer Sales, Expanding Inventory
KIRKLAND , Wash. (Aug. 6, 2007) – Fewer homes sold last month around Western Washington compared to 12 months ago, but they fetched higher prices, according to a new report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Its figures show both inventory and prices are still rising.
NWMLS members reported 8,614 pending sales across the 19 counties in its market area during July. That volume of offers made and accepted (but not yet closed) is down 6 percent from a year ago when members notched 9,165 pending sales.
Prices are still rising, but at more moderate rates in most areas. Area-wide, the median price for last month's closed sales of single family homes and condominiums rose 6.3 percent from July 2006.
In King County, the median sales price for last month's completed transactions of single family homes and condominiums (combined) jumped nearly 9 percent from a year ago, rising from $390,000 to $425,000. The median selling price for a single family home rose 10.6 percent to $481,000.
Members added 14,875 new listings of single family homes and condos to the inventory during July – the smallest number since March when they added 14,281 new listings. Those additions brought the system-wide total to 47,106 offerings across 19 counties. The current selection is about 48 percent larger than a year ago when there were 31,910 active listings.
Homes that are well-priced and well-prepared for showing will stand out from the competition and command top dollars, brokers emphasize.
"The prettiest homes with the most reasonable prices on the block are selling – and some are getting multiple offers," said NWMLS director Kathy Estey, managing broker of a John L. Scott office in Bellevue.
Contrary to many areas with slower activity, Bellevue remains robust. The volume of closed sales surpassed year-ago totals and prices are rising at a faster clip than the MLS average. The median price for last month's closed sales of single family homes (excluding condos) with a Bellevue address was $750,000, a jump of $80,000 (11.9%) from 12 months ago.
"It's a nice time to buy and sell," Estey commented. "The market feels a lot more peaceful as the frenzy cools and a more balanced market takes its place. We are healthy on the Eastside," she exclaimed.
Sam Pace , the South King County housing specialist for the Seattle-King County Association of Realtors Ò and a Realtor with Executive Real Estate, agreed. "We've got a very healthy, positive, stable market in South King County and north Pierce County -- one of the best in the nation," he stated, adding, "Homes that are well-priced by serious and savvy sellers are continuing to be snapped up rather quickly.
Pace said the South Sound area offers some of the best opportunities for single family buyers in the central Puget Sound Region, "but only if buyers are pre-approved and ready to act expeditiously."
In contrast to the eastside of King County, where last month's median sales price for single family homes and condos was $550,000, dwellings that sold in southeast King County had a median price of $350,000; in the southwest section of the county, the median selling price was an even more affordable $310,000.
Pierce County continues to have the most affordably priced inventory in the four-county region, with more than 40 percent of current listings of single family homes priced under $300,000:
County
# current listings
(as of 8/4/07)
(single family homes only)
Median list price (asking price)
# priced under $300,000
% priced under $300,000
King
9,199
$513,443
745
8.09%
Kitsap
2,288
$361,000
828
36.2%
Pierce
7,228
$329,950
2,947
40.8%
Snohomish
5,166
$419,945
684
13.2%
NWMLS director Dick Beeson said despite a rising frustration level for some agents who "are not keeping their head in the game," and the slower market, "There is still a lot of business being done." Beeson, the broker/owner of Windermere Real Estate/Commencement Associates in Tacoma, noted buyers are still seeking bargains and many sellers remain unrealistic in their pricing. Buyers are getting good values, he acknowledged, but overpriced properties are languishing on the market.
"The market has settled into a steady rhythm," Beeson remarked, who said he believes the market will actually pick up toward the end of summer and into fall.
Condos Outperforming Single Family Homes
The condominium market remains active, with the volume of both pending sales and closed sales out-gaining year-ago totals. Pending sales rose about 3.7 percent. Prices for last month's completed transactions were about 10.5 percent higher than for condos that sold a year ago.
Condo buyers have a wide choice of styles across the price spectrum. Inventory is almost 75 percent bigger than twelve months ago. According to New Home Trends, a Bothell company that tracks new construction, there are approximately 29,000 condos in various stages of development and construction in the four-county Puget Sound region, with only a fraction of them currently in the MLS database.
Nearly half the condo inventory in the NWMLS system is located in King County. Of the nearly 3,000 listings currently offered for sale within the county, about one of every five is classified as new construction.
Fallout from Risky Loans
Lawrence Yun, senior economist at the National Association of Realtors Ò , said tightening lending standards are continuing to hamper sales, but fewer risky loans will put the market on a healthier path. Mixed signals about the housing market are causing some hesitancy among consumers, Yun believes. Although general buying conditions remain favorable for long-term home buyers, he said it appears "some buyers are looking for more signs of stability before they have enough confidence to make an offer."
Both Beeson and Estey commented on more restrictive lending practices. "The subprime market failures have hurt the re-fi market and this could eventually mean more properties will come up for sale," Beeson stated. Lenders are tightening the reins on qualifying, Estey remarked, adding, "But rates are good."
Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed rate loan dropped slightly last week to an average of 6.71 percent, according to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey. HSH Associates, Financial Publishers reported a slightly higher rate of 6.87 percent.
Northwest Multiple Listing Service, based in Kirkland, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. The MLS is owned by its member brokers and currently encompasses nearly 2,100 companies with more than 26,000 sales associates. Together, they serve 19 counties, mostly in western Washington, plus Grant, Kittitas and Okanogan counties in the central part of the state.
Statistical Summary by Counties: Market Activity Summary for July 2007
You posted the press release before it was available to the public, Shug.
It just became available to regular Joes a few minutes ago.
Well, I believe you called the bet off in a post around here somewhere, and it was you with the balloons, not me (you never specified, but I suggested a pic with a sign on my roof saying something along the lines of "my house only goes up up up!"), but I'll be happy to hold up my end if you want me to, even though my house declined in value YOY, ironically.
But you were certainly right that we still see YOY gains in July. This market is taking a bit longer to tank than I thought it would. Housing prices are pretty sticky.
I would really recommend reading the Wall Street Journal today (several articles) - the residential mortgage market is in the process of seizing up, which is going to make a **huge** difference to the ability of people to bid on homes.
I think the timing issue has been settled - the crunch is going to happen, and happen now (cf. Wells Fargo raising their Jumbo rate to 8%). Wall Street was apparently rife with rumors this weekend that Bear, Stearns is in a lot of trouble (they did fire their co-president).
They say that SFH inventory in KC was 9199 on 8/4/07. Our trusty Tim's logs gathered from real estate sites lists the following SFH inventories at noon on the same day:
10217, 11195, 10104
The NWMLS value is 9.9%, 17.8%, and 8.9% lower than our other three respective data points. Reading #2 is consistently around 10% higher than readings #1 and #2 so maybe that is just the margin of error in observing RE inventory.
Or maybe they are spinning the data to fit their goals.
The current selection is about 48 percent larger than a year ago
Wow!
Further down we can calculate months of inventory (although that includes condos so the inventory might not be accurate):
Total Active = 12902
Closings = 3417
MOI = 3.7
But maybe inventory should be adjusted by say 9.5% to account for what we observe:
Adjusted Active = 14127
Closings = 3417
MOI = 4.1
I've been told that MOI=3 is the border between rising prices and falling prices. It looks like its time for that theory to be put to the test in King County.
Right. I was just referring to this bet, where I thought was about 50/50 when I made it a year or go that we would a gain of only 3% or less by now. My thinking was that the outer regions of King County would start declining by now - Seattle-proper is pretty close to where I thought it would be. The Eastside, however, it's still going bizongers (to use the technical term). There must be a lot of new construction holding up the prices over there.
You posted the press release before it was available to the public, Shug.
Nope, it was there for everyone to see. You just need to know where to look.
Well, I believe you called the bet off in a post around here somewhere, and it was you with the balloons, not me (you never specified, but I suggested a pic with a sign on my roof saying something along the lines of "my house only goes up up up!"), but I'll be happy to hold up my end if you want me to, even though my house declined in value YOY, ironically.
Don't really care....a simple admission that my prediction was more accurate then yours will suffice.
I'm not what you mean by precondition, but you won the bet, if that's what you mean.
I knew where to look. It said something to the effect of "you aren't a member of the MLS, so bugger off"; up until 3 pm.. That's why I accused you of being a member or being sent the PR from someone who was.
If you simply supply the link where you can access the report early without being a member, I'll drop my accusation and apologize for accusing you of being a shill.
I knew it! Said from day freakin' one that Meshugy was a RE insider... and now, ultimate bag holder.
<nelson> HA HAH </nelson>
Wow...you are just so desperate to see someone in Real Estate get burned. It's really sort of sad....what would make someone so malicious?
Anyway, I'm sorry to say I'm not the victim you're looking for. I'm just a musician who owns a house in Ballard. The worst a RE downturn will mean for me is that I may be able to buy my house for less then I paid someday. But at this point, the house is worth over $150K more then I paid and climbing. I think that's more then enough cushion.
Most of my investments are in mutual funds, vintage instruments, and my own business. All of which are performing rather well right now. We're actually looking for a new house now...probably will buy again in the next year or so. But not as an investment...just need more space for the business and two kids.
If you simply supply the link where you can access the report early without being a member, I'll drop my accusation and apologize for accusing you of being a shill.
Why would I do that? It's much more fun to watch everyone come up with all these wild conspiracy theories about me. Meshugy is a real estate shill, Meshugy is paid to brainwash us, etc, etc. So funny...really entertaining and speaks to the true nature of many of you.
If you simply supply the link where you can access the report early without being a member, I'll drop my accusation and apologize for accusing you of being a shill.
Why would I do that? It's much more fun to watch everyone come up with all these wild conspiracy theories about me. Meshugy is a real estate shill, Meshugy is paid to brainwash us, etc, etc. So funny...really entertaining and speaks to the true nature of many of you.
..Most of my investments are in mutual funds, vintage instruments, and my own business. All of which are performing rather well right now. We're actually looking for a new house now...probably will buy again in the next year or so. But not as an investment...just need more space for the business and two kids.
Gee, from one musican to another, I would not be surprised if most of your gains are in your vintage instruments and maybe your business. What MF's do you hold? Oil perhaps?
I have a supposedly very low risk, no-load, No REIT/very low bonds, (morningstar 5's), idexed mutal funds from Vanguard and T Rowe Price, and in the last two weeks all the gains, and then some over the past 6 months have been WIPED out, and then some. They are now worth less than when I bought them.
If you simply supply the link where you can access the report early without being a member, I'll drop my accusation and apologize for accusing you of being a shill.
Why would I do that? It's much more fun to watch everyone come up with all these wild conspiracy theories about me. Meshugy is a real estate shill, Meshugy is paid to brainwash us, etc, etc. So funny...really entertaining and speaks to the true nature of many of you.
Post the link, fool!
Well if he is using the same method/ link I am , then the moment it goes "public" it will be closed.
So maybe he is a shill , maybe he is not. But one thing is for sure, there are other non techie ways in.
Ballard Bob returns, playing guitar for the Titanic's house band, as she lists 30 degrees to port. I have a feeling this will be our last encounter with lil' baby blue.
Good luck with that climb up the equity escalator next year. Remember, Seattle RE is "HOT HOT HOT"!!!!
. . . We're actually looking for a new house now...probably will buy again in the next year or so. But not as an investment...just need more space for the business and two kids.
Now hold on there, pardn'r--why the delay in purchasing? With all of this never-ending appreciation going on, you'd be far better off buying right now--unless (gasp!) you secretly think that prices will be lower a year from now. And do you plan on selling your current house before buying another one (which is the only way you're going to realize any of the now-on-paper gains that you've been bragging about for the past several months)? Do tell!
Please don't tell. Who really cares in fact? Housing is illiquid, and all gains are only realized after the sale. Finally, your real gains are only those left after subtracting maintenance, HOA dues, taxes, interest paid, transaction fees, and inflation. After all that, you can add back in the cost of equivolent rent (since you aren't paying that). Or, if you want to snazzy it up a bit, do what everyone else does.
Comments
http://www.djangobooks.com/forum/, so he's still around. Maybe he senses the tide has turned and he doesn't want to come out to play with the bubble crowd?
Didn't he have some bets on this blog that should be coming due?
Prices have a hit a new peak...I can't believe it! SFH at $481K!!!
Housing Prices in Western Washington Still Rising
Despite Fewer Sales, Expanding Inventory
KIRKLAND , Wash. (Aug. 6, 2007) – Fewer homes sold last month around Western Washington compared to 12 months ago, but they fetched higher prices, according to a new report from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Its figures show both inventory and prices are still rising.
NWMLS members reported 8,614 pending sales across the 19 counties in its market area during July. That volume of offers made and accepted (but not yet closed) is down 6 percent from a year ago when members notched 9,165 pending sales.
Prices are still rising, but at more moderate rates in most areas. Area-wide, the median price for last month's closed sales of single family homes and condominiums rose 6.3 percent from July 2006.
In King County, the median sales price for last month's completed transactions of single family homes and condominiums (combined) jumped nearly 9 percent from a year ago, rising from $390,000 to $425,000. The median selling price for a single family home rose 10.6 percent to $481,000.
Members added 14,875 new listings of single family homes and condos to the inventory during July – the smallest number since March when they added 14,281 new listings. Those additions brought the system-wide total to 47,106 offerings across 19 counties. The current selection is about 48 percent larger than a year ago when there were 31,910 active listings.
Homes that are well-priced and well-prepared for showing will stand out from the competition and command top dollars, brokers emphasize.
"The prettiest homes with the most reasonable prices on the block are selling – and some are getting multiple offers," said NWMLS director Kathy Estey, managing broker of a John L. Scott office in Bellevue.
Contrary to many areas with slower activity, Bellevue remains robust. The volume of closed sales surpassed year-ago totals and prices are rising at a faster clip than the MLS average. The median price for last month's closed sales of single family homes (excluding condos) with a Bellevue address was $750,000, a jump of $80,000 (11.9%) from 12 months ago.
"It's a nice time to buy and sell," Estey commented. "The market feels a lot more peaceful as the frenzy cools and a more balanced market takes its place. We are healthy on the Eastside," she exclaimed.
Sam Pace , the South King County housing specialist for the Seattle-King County Association of Realtors Ò and a Realtor with Executive Real Estate, agreed. "We've got a very healthy, positive, stable market in South King County and north Pierce County -- one of the best in the nation," he stated, adding, "Homes that are well-priced by serious and savvy sellers are continuing to be snapped up rather quickly.
Pace said the South Sound area offers some of the best opportunities for single family buyers in the central Puget Sound Region, "but only if buyers are pre-approved and ready to act expeditiously."
In contrast to the eastside of King County, where last month's median sales price for single family homes and condos was $550,000, dwellings that sold in southeast King County had a median price of $350,000; in the southwest section of the county, the median selling price was an even more affordable $310,000.
Pierce County continues to have the most affordably priced inventory in the four-county region, with more than 40 percent of current listings of single family homes priced under $300,000:
County
# current listings
(as of 8/4/07)
(single family homes only)
Median list price (asking price)
# priced under $300,000
% priced under $300,000
King
9,199
$513,443
745
8.09%
Kitsap
2,288
$361,000
828
36.2%
Pierce
7,228
$329,950
2,947
40.8%
Snohomish
5,166
$419,945
684
13.2%
NWMLS director Dick Beeson said despite a rising frustration level for some agents who "are not keeping their head in the game," and the slower market, "There is still a lot of business being done." Beeson, the broker/owner of Windermere Real Estate/Commencement Associates in Tacoma, noted buyers are still seeking bargains and many sellers remain unrealistic in their pricing. Buyers are getting good values, he acknowledged, but overpriced properties are languishing on the market.
"The market has settled into a steady rhythm," Beeson remarked, who said he believes the market will actually pick up toward the end of summer and into fall.
Condos Outperforming Single Family Homes
The condominium market remains active, with the volume of both pending sales and closed sales out-gaining year-ago totals. Pending sales rose about 3.7 percent. Prices for last month's completed transactions were about 10.5 percent higher than for condos that sold a year ago.
Condo buyers have a wide choice of styles across the price spectrum. Inventory is almost 75 percent bigger than twelve months ago. According to New Home Trends, a Bothell company that tracks new construction, there are approximately 29,000 condos in various stages of development and construction in the four-county Puget Sound region, with only a fraction of them currently in the MLS database.
Nearly half the condo inventory in the NWMLS system is located in King County. Of the nearly 3,000 listings currently offered for sale within the county, about one of every five is classified as new construction.
Fallout from Risky Loans
Lawrence Yun, senior economist at the National Association of Realtors Ò , said tightening lending standards are continuing to hamper sales, but fewer risky loans will put the market on a healthier path. Mixed signals about the housing market are causing some hesitancy among consumers, Yun believes. Although general buying conditions remain favorable for long-term home buyers, he said it appears "some buyers are looking for more signs of stability before they have enough confidence to make an offer."
Both Beeson and Estey commented on more restrictive lending practices. "The subprime market failures have hurt the re-fi market and this could eventually mean more properties will come up for sale," Beeson stated. Lenders are tightening the reins on qualifying, Estey remarked, adding, "But rates are good."
Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed rate loan dropped slightly last week to an average of 6.71 percent, according to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey. HSH Associates, Financial Publishers reported a slightly higher rate of 6.87 percent.
Northwest Multiple Listing Service, based in Kirkland, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. The MLS is owned by its member brokers and currently encompasses nearly 2,100 companies with more than 26,000 sales associates. Together, they serve 19 counties, mostly in western Washington, plus Grant, Kittitas and Okanogan counties in the central part of the state.
Statistical Summary by Counties: Market Activity Summary for July 2007
sorry bili...i have no special access to mls. just a regular guy like you.
btw....you wagered that the median prices would be yoy negative for july. looks like you seriously misjudged that one....because they're 10% higher.
so, what was it you're required to do now? i believe an embarrassing photo involving balloons??
It just became available to regular Joes a few minutes ago.
Well, I believe you called the bet off in a post around here somewhere, and it was you with the balloons, not me (you never specified, but I suggested a pic with a sign on my roof saying something along the lines of "my house only goes up up up!"), but I'll be happy to hold up my end if you want me to, even though my house declined in value YOY, ironically.
Oh, and I think that Meshugy's business is doing well because he is afraid of housing prices falling.
It wasn't available until around 3pm - well after Mesh's cut and paste at 1pm.
Did someone email it to you, Mesh?
10217, 11195, 10104
The NWMLS value is 9.9%, 17.8%, and 8.9% lower than our other three respective data points. Reading #2 is consistently around 10% higher than readings #1 and #2 so maybe that is just the margin of error in observing RE inventory.
Or maybe they are spinning the data to fit their goals.
Wow!
Further down we can calculate months of inventory (although that includes condos so the inventory might not be accurate):
Total Active = 12902
Closings = 3417
MOI = 3.7
But maybe inventory should be adjusted by say 9.5% to account for what we observe:
Adjusted Active = 14127
Closings = 3417
MOI = 4.1
I've been told that MOI=3 is the border between rising prices and falling prices. It looks like its time for that theory to be put to the test in King County.
Also, I guess Meshugy knows someone who can give him permission.
Nope, it was there for everyone to see. You just need to know where to look.
Don't really care....a simple admission that my prediction was more accurate then yours will suffice.
I knew where to look. It said something to the effect of "you aren't a member of the MLS, so bugger off"; up until 3 pm.. That's why I accused you of being a member or being sent the PR from someone who was.
If you simply supply the link where you can access the report early without being a member, I'll drop my accusation and apologize for accusing you of being a shill.
<nelson> HA HAH </nelson>
Wow...you are just so desperate to see someone in Real Estate get burned. It's really sort of sad....what would make someone so malicious?
Anyway, I'm sorry to say I'm not the victim you're looking for. I'm just a musician who owns a house in Ballard. The worst a RE downturn will mean for me is that I may be able to buy my house for less then I paid someday. But at this point, the house is worth over $150K more then I paid and climbing. I think that's more then enough cushion.
Most of my investments are in mutual funds, vintage instruments, and my own business. All of which are performing rather well right now. We're actually looking for a new house now...probably will buy again in the next year or so. But not as an investment...just need more space for the business and two kids.
Why would I do that? It's much more fun to watch everyone come up with all these wild conspiracy theories about me. Meshugy is a real estate shill, Meshugy is paid to brainwash us, etc, etc. So funny...really entertaining and speaks to the true nature of many of you.
Post the link, fool!
Gee, from one musican to another, I would not be surprised if most of your gains are in your vintage instruments and maybe your business. What MF's do you hold? Oil perhaps?
I have a supposedly very low risk, no-load, No REIT/very low bonds, (morningstar 5's), idexed mutal funds from Vanguard and T Rowe Price, and in the last two weeks all the gains, and then some over the past 6 months have been WIPED out, and then some. They are now worth less than when I bought them.
not someone...just you. I don't think it would have anything to do with the daily trolling for the last 2 years??
Yeah, finding "just anyone" burned in RE is as easy as looking up the trustee sales.
Well if he is using the same method/ link I am , then the moment it goes "public" it will be closed.
So maybe he is a shill , maybe he is not. But one thing is for sure, there are other non techie ways in.
Ballard Bob returns, playing guitar for the Titanic's house band, as she lists 30 degrees to port. I have a feeling this will be our last encounter with lil' baby blue.
Good luck with that climb up the equity escalator next year. Remember, Seattle RE is "HOT HOT HOT"!!!!
"OMG! No weigh I cud afort thes hows to day!"
Personally I thought he got a new gig over at the Weekly writing the Uptight Seattleite column...
http://www.seattleweekly.com/columns/284118/[/url]