Asking prices finally trending down in Seattle
Based on what Altos Research is reporting, it looks like asking prices are really starting to drop in Seattle. Down $30k in the last ~3 months - about 6% from peak in mid-May. That will show up as only a slight decline in the Y2Y stats, but the trend is getting pretty pronounced in the middle of traditionally "hot" selling months.
A friend of mine runs this company and I have talked to him about why they use asking prices vs. closing prices to view market trends. He says they've done a ton of research, and the two are highly correlated, so asking prices are a very good proxy for what is happening in the market - what you see happen with asking prices will be reflected in MLS statistics. And since asking prices are available on a much more timely basis than closing prices, you get a better ability to see trends earlier.
I also think his stuff is also much more accurate than what you see at housingtracker.net - since he sells it, instead of giving it away for ad revenue.
A friend of mine runs this company and I have talked to him about why they use asking prices vs. closing prices to view market trends. He says they've done a ton of research, and the two are highly correlated, so asking prices are a very good proxy for what is happening in the market - what you see happen with asking prices will be reflected in MLS statistics. And since asking prices are available on a much more timely basis than closing prices, you get a better ability to see trends earlier.
I also think his stuff is also much more accurate than what you see at housingtracker.net - since he sells it, instead of giving it away for ad revenue.
Comments
This is a response I received from my realtor friend regarding the current state of the mortgage crunch.
A:Hello there,
Thanks for the vote of confidence! Having been a real estate agent for nearly 30 years, I am quite used to the ups and downs. The media is always blowing things out of proportion. There are always people who have to sell and people who need/want to buy. It's a great buyer's market right now. We are selling properties if they are very competitively priced. We counsel our buyers on what price to offer and to walk away if the seller won't "play." We counsel our sellers that they should not sell now unless they really need to and that they should be prepared to accept a low offer even if they are competitively priced. Things will even out again. They always do!
Have a great day,
Cheers,
I have respectfully omitted the name.
Check out http://research.altosresearch.com/resea ... MAMISH/552 as an example.
http://research.altosresearch.com/resea ... EDMOND/552
http://research.altosresearch.com/resea ... LLEVUE/552
The median price in Kirkland seems to have gone up by $200K in less than a year.
http://research.altosresearch.com/resea ... RKLAND/552
The Altos site seems to be very cool, assuming the data is accurate. If I could see the aggregated data for a group of cities, it'd just rock.
I am really enjoying quotes like this one right now (emphasis mine). Next month expect to see reports that 'properties are selling if they are really really ridiculously competitively priced'.
Another good quote
and don't they also need to be "really really ridiculously good looking" also?
Thank you for recognizing my muse