treasury rates dropping: must be great for real-estate

edited August 2007 in Housing Bubble
It's funny how I don't see too many people in the real-estate industry cheering now that interest rates are actually falling big-tiime. T-bill rates are plummeting, but I have a sneaking suspicion this won't help goose real-estate much.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLNtbtm6Pyac&refer=home
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Comments

  • T-Bill rates are plummeting because people would rather lend money to the Feds than homeowners at the moment...
  • unfortunately, risk premiums are rising faster than the risk-free rate is falling so your mortgage gets no cheaper. The T-bill rate falling is only good for the government. Sorry home buyers and corporations. oh, and as the rate our gov't pays for t-bills falls, so will our currency because no one wants to invest in the US, which increases the price of oil, chinese crap, and plasma tvs.

    that's fun.
  • deejayoh wrote:
    oh, and as the rate our gov't pays for t-bills falls, so will our currency because no one wants to invest in the US, which increases the price of oil, chinese crap, and plasma tvs.

    boy oh boy, I can't wait to pay even more for lead-tainted Chinese crap. Incidentally, my 15 month old son has been using the F-ing lead-tainted bibs for the last six months or so. When I read about it yesterday, I thought I was going to pass out. But hey, at least it made the Walton family the richest in the world selling poisoned toys to children.
  • Actually, it was the millions of people across America who made the Waltons so wealthy. I for one pretty much refuse to shop at Walmart, even when they do have the lowest price.

    Now please feel free to lambast me for mocking poor people who have no choice between paying the Waltons and letting their starving children run around naked and cold.
  • I for one pretty much refuse to shop at Walmart, even when they do have the lowest price.

    Same here. I haven't been inside a Wal-Mart in 10+ years. I refuse to give that company a single cent.
  • deejayoh wrote:
    unfortunately, risk premiums are rising faster than the risk-free rate is falling so your mortgage gets no cheaper.

    Are you sure that's true for GSE conforming "prime" loans?
  • "boy oh boy, I can't wait to pay even more for lead-tainted Chinese crap. Incidentally, my 15 month old son has been using the F-ing lead-tainted bibs for the last six months or so. When I read about it yesterday, I thought I was going to pass out. But hey, at least it made the Walton family the richest in the world selling poisoned toys to children."

    Economists call this "externalizing risk"...and as a result of rape (er I mean free trade) agreements, modern corporations have made it into an art.

    It is a great time to be a pirate (er I mean a multinational corporation CEO) where in the end...everyone loses except those in "mahogany row" of said corporation.

    China becomes toxic manufacturing wasteland and we become toxic consumer wasteland....

    On a brighter note....it is a great time to invest in helicoptors!!!!
  • deejayoh wrote:
    unfortunately, risk premiums are rising faster than the risk-free rate is falling so your mortgage gets no cheaper.

    Are you sure that's true for GSE conforming "prime" loans?

    draw your own conclusions :)

    bankratetx1.png

    link
  • That's nutz DJO, it almost looks like treasury note yields are dropping, while the risk premium for all mortgages is increasing at the same pace treasury yields are dropping at. Like I said...almost.
  • Its ironic that even though many of you dont shop at Walmart you still benefit from the companies policies. If Walmart lowers the price on an item then their competitors tend to lower their price about the same time, thus you enjoy the benefits of their efficient distribuiton system and dont even know it...
  • finance wrote:
    Its ironic that even though many of you dont shop at Walmart you still benefit from the companies policies.

    And whether or not we shop there w'ere still on the hook for their employees welfare and medicade use.

    The main issue I see with Wal*Mart isn't that they have low prices (Costco does as well) Their prices on many goods are really quite high compared to what you can find by shopping around- it's that their business model imposes large negative externalities on the rest of the community.
  • finance wrote:
    Its ironic that even though many of you dont shop at Walmart you still benefit from the companies policies. If Walmart lowers the price on an item then their competitors tend to lower their price about the same time, thus you enjoy the benefits of their efficient distribuiton system and dont even know it...

    Wait. What? Irony is defined as the tendency of competition to reduce the price of commodities? I'm going to have to go to my dictionary and double check that one...

    For the record, I'm all for reduced prices if the price of those reductions is not to high. If it were simply Walmart's efficient distribution and tracking system that were reducing their prices, I would say bring it on. If it's just the quantity they buy in, then go for it. Even if it were only that they tend to sell low quality products to achieve a low price, that would be fine.

    But mike2 is correct, they do it at additional cost to us all. We have to take care of their employees. We lose jobs at home. And in smaller communities, Walmart drives local dealers out of business. This hurts entrepreneurship and is definitely bad for America. So if your point is that I can get a flat panel TV for $999 now instead of $1399, then no thank you. I will take the slightly higher priced world without Walmart.
  • Wal-Mart has built an amazing distribution system. I have to give them credit for that.

    But the fact that the US taxpayer is paying for the health insurance for many of its employees is one of the main reasons I support universal socialized medicine. Either that or no government health care. The current system only gives companies that treat thier employees like that an economic advantage. Universal health care would level the playing field.
  • Walmart has significantly improved their health insurance program in the past 2 years since the issue was raised. Currently they are up to the industry avg of benefits and pay for each set position...so that argument is now invalid. At least thats what I read in the NYT earlier this year...Im not saying its still right or OK for what they pay or do for their current pay, its just that its gradually improving...

    One main reason that Walmart is in the middle of pay and benefits now is that other retail companies have lowered their pay and benefits on an adjusted basis, thus its not that Walmart raised benefits enough to catch up to the industry, its that they both drifted towards each other.

    The example of the $999 or $1399 HDTV is that without Walmart the HDTV might cost $1599 and brought more competition in the marketplace (one reason inflation is staying marginally lower, saw an article in the WSJ about a year ago on it).
  • finance wrote:
    One main reason that Walmart is in the middle of pay and benefits now is that other retail companies have lowered their pay and benefits on an adjusted basis, thus its not that Walmart raised benefits enough to catch up to the industry, its that they both drifted towards each other.

    I say you are spot on with this, but I interpret it differently. In capitalism, price drops are a good thing if they are produced by increased efficiency. Increased efficiency both lowers prices and increases wealth. That's a win all around. Walmart's distribution system which uses RFID technology to track shipments and schedule new shipments is an example of the good efficiency.

    Walmart's policy of paying low wages and providing no benefits is not! In the 50s/60s/70s, a single income family could live comfortably off of a Sears salary. Try that today.

    Here's my equation.

    Low Quality of Life for Employees + People Buying Cheap Crap = Lots of $$$ for Wally's heirs

    No thank you!
  • Another reason not to shop at Wal-Mart is that the quality of their goods is worse than other stores. Even the name brand products are lower quality than the same products in other stores.

    Snapper Lawnmowers decided to stop selling at Wal-Mart when Wal-Mart told them to lower quality to reduce costs or leave.

    Even if Wal-Mart is slightly cheaper, the products break or wear out more quickly (I especially have noticed this with clothes). In my experience, the use to price ratio is worse at Wal-Mart than at other stores.

    http://www.fastcompany.com/magazine/102/open_snapper.html
  • All Walmarts are not equal. I agree with most of the posters and wouldnt step foot in a Walmart near a big city, yet when you get out in the rural areas of Eastern Wa or Northern ID it seems the product quality and selection gets better. They also have very clean stores, while the Wally's World in RENTON is crappier than crap. I to pay more than shop there!!! I do know they cater their store selection to their audiences
  • finance wrote:
    All Walmarts are not equal. I agree with most of the posters and wouldnt step foot in a Walmart near a big city, yet when you get out in the rural areas of Eastern Wa or Northern ID it seems the product quality and selection gets better. They also have very clean stores, while the Wally's World in RENTON is crappier than crap. I to pay more than shop there!!! I do know they cater their store selection to their audiences

    I am aware of no metric to determine whether a Walmart will be disgusting or not other than to actually enter the store. As for catering to local markets, that is something it took Walmart a long time to learn. There was a time when they were mocked for putting things like riding lawn mowers in front of stores in major cities.

    And I will forever contend that it's the stores in those out of the way places that do the most damages. When a Walmart goes up in Renton, it's just one of hundreds of stores that can make it. When one goes up in Wenatchee, it drives almost every other store in the area out of business. I know that we applaud inefficiencies being removed from the market, but these businesses simply cannot compete no the bottom line, because they cannot force suppliers to sell them goods at the price they demand. I've seen several places that had nice little down town areas and the Walmart turns them into ghost towns. Then the Walmart adds a grocery section and most of the local groceries go out of business as well.

    <sigh>
  • finance wrote:
    I to pay more than shop there!!!

    Is this english? Can I get a translation?
  • It's missing a word.

    "I want to pay more than shop there."
  • f' walmart, I don't shop there and I never will. I even went out of my way to buy the harry potter book for my daughter at the bookshop next door. (for 35 dollars more :P
  • I couldnt' give a RA how clean their stores are. I disagree with their business practices so I refuse to spend my money there or support them in any way whatsoever.
  • So do they sell T-bills at Walmart?
  • So do they sell T-bills at Walmart?

    Yes, but only ones from China.
  • Alan wrote:
    So do they sell T-bills at Walmart?

    Yes, but only ones from China.

    In fine print you'll notice the 'T' stands for toxic lead.
  • I forgot to put in a comma, so shoot me... "I to, pay more than shop there!!! "

    rose colored koolaid has a good point about rural walmarts in small towns...it is one area that they kill business, however other small companies like Target and Shopko go in right next door and people dont complain about them causing the small businesses to close with similar prices...

    aldreth - Going out of your way to pay more for a product is called stupidity. I even go to stores I dont generally support at times when theres a good deal and only buy that product. I consider it sticking it to them, especially if it is a lost leader where they lose money on that specific product and make it up on other purchases.

    redmondjp - Actually walmart is thinking of starting a bank so they could probably start printing Walmart dollars...
  • "I to, pay more than shop there!!! "

    I guess my parse was wrong.

    The comma is wrong too.

    You meant to say, "I too pay more than shop there."

    Although, that is still difficult to parse. How about: "I too pay more rather than shop there."

    But that still doesn't sound quite right. Perhaps: "I also pay more instead of shopping there."

    Still something not quite right. I think it is the mixed verb tenses in the same sentence.

    I'm going to stick with my gut. My first interpretation is the most likely. You left out the word "want". Same meaning. Simple typo. Anyone could make it.

    (I think "I pay two more to shop there" is right out.)
  • finance wrote:
    aldreth - Going out of your way to pay more for a product is called stupidity.

    Not always. For example, I'll often go to REI and spend more by buying it from them, rather than buy it online for a little less.

    REI is a local business and I like to support Seattle/WA based businesses. Also, they have a better warranty and return policy. If I don't like the product (for whatever reason) I can just take it back. That's a hassle and not often possible when you buy online.

    I agree with your statement if the choice is between two identical TVs, one at Best Buy and one at Circuit City. All else being equal, it is indeed stupidity to pay more.

    But when it comes to Walmart I disagree with you. I don't like their employment practices and compared with Costco (another local company that employs a lot of people at HQ), giving money to Walmart doesn't help my local economy as much.
  • finance wrote:
    rose colored koolaid has a good point about rural walmarts in small towns...it is one area that they kill business, however other small companies like Target and Shopko go in right next door and people dont complain about them causing the small businesses to close with similar prices...

    a) You're killing me with this spelling koolaid correctly thing. :D

    b) I agree that nobody complains as much when the other low priced dealers move into the same neighborhood. Part of it is that the other stores are just following suit, so it's not as noticeable.

    But also, in my experience, they do not have as large of an impact in driving out local dealers. I know of several small towns that had K-Marts in them for years and years with not much impact on local businesses. And then a Walmart comes in and suddenly everyone more or less closes down. This is hardly a strong analysis - just a couple examples I know of - but it still suggests to me that Walmart is considered a bigger deal because maybe it is. Or maybe K-Mart was too pathetic to matter.
  • Alan - Thank you for grammer school...as this is the Seattle Bubble PC Forum page. As long as you understood what I meant in what I wrote you should be fine.
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