Probably true - but that doesn't mean that things will be as bad as San Diego or Florida. If you look at rents vs. housing prices, Seattle is in line with national averages - unlike some of the hyper-bubble areas.
That being said, "in line with national averages" isn't going to be very pleasant for someone trying to sell a house in Seattle.
Kpom -
what's your source for price:rent ratio?
Seattle has one of the highest ratios in the country, according to this
Real estate speculators are about to face a tough choice.
We know the current crazy price:rent gap occured due to expected gains in property values. Now that's dropped to 5 percent YOY in the Seattle area -- and will likely continue on down, and perhaps even drop.
So an investor in a new property in 2007 would have raise the rent a ton to make up for the crazy price:rent ratio that now exists; and the slower appreciation rate.
My question is: how much? If the market levels out, how much would rents need to increase on average for an investor to make money on a new Seattle SFH or Condo with the goal of renting it out?
If that rent increase seems possible to you, then the housing market is doing just fine...
DJO - Yes you are right about the Rent to Own Ratios, however the one that surprised me was that Seattle had a "% of Income Ratio" of only 29.3% of your income. Thats lower than the typical less than 1/3 of your income general statment that we hear as a basis for affordability...Not sure if its right, but if it is its an interesting stat.
New York Times article, May 27, 2005, which had a table from Economy.com. Seattle/Bellevue-Everett's home price/rental price ratio had gone from 12.8 to 19.0 from 1Q 2000 to 1Q 2005, while the nation had gone from 11.6 to 17.1. (San Francisco went from 12.5 to 34.1, and West Palm Beach-Boca Raton went from 11.6 to 29.4.)
This does seem to be at variance from the table you cited - obviously, the NYT article is a couple of years older, and I don't know how the other article defines "Seattle". The one thing that I find curious about the other table is that it has the price to rent ratio for Cape Coral, FL being lower than Seattle - from everything I've read, Cape Coral is Ground Zero for the housing bubble, and I don't think that people have capitulated enough in Cape Coral to bring the ratio down yet.
Odd patterns in the inventory graph the past few weeks...
I'm seeing a stair step. Inventory rises steeply for a few days. Then it levels off for a few days. Then it climbs again. Then it levels off.
8/8/07 Wednesday - bottom of the first climb
8/10/07 Friday - top of the first climb
8/15/07 Wedneday - bottom of the second climb
8/17/07 Friday - top of the second climb.
So the pattern is way too short to make a prediction with any sort of confidence, but I'll do so anyway. Inventory will rise around 100 units between Wednesday and Friday this week. We may get very close to 10600 by Friday.
Any theories as to what is causing this stair step behavior?
Probably just a reporting frequency artifact. If anyone in the chain of reporting only works Wed-Fri, they could stall for 4 days, then get to their inbox and take 3 days to work through it. This is just a guess of course.
A more nefarious guess is that nothing is selling at all and real estate agents are recommending that sellers post on Wed/Thur/Fri. The result is new posts go up on those days and no sales are made on other days. Mwahaha
Probably just a reporting frequency artifact. If anyone in the chain of reporting only works Wed-Fri, they could stall for 4 days, then get to their inbox and take 3 days to work through it. This is just a guess of course.
A more nefarious guess is that nothing is selling at all and real estate agents are recommending that sellers post on Wed/Thur/Fri. The result is new posts go up on those days and no sales are made on other days. Mwahaha
When I listed my house for sale I had it posted on Thursday so that it would appear on Friday when a lot of people sift through listings looking at places to visit that weekend.
I would imagine that houses are added (and sold, even at a lower rate) every day, it's just that there is the "end of week" boost due to people like me doing the weekend thing...
As more and more homes come on the market and the fear sets in, it will be soon time to buy and pick up some bargains! Get the finances in order now and be ready. The perfect time will come and smart investors and buyers will make a ton of money. There are even some good bargains out there now, but it's too early. 8)
As more and more homes come on the market and the fear sets in, it will be soon time to buy and pick up some bargains! Get the finances in order now and be ready. The perfect time will come and smart investors and buyers will make a ton of money. There are even some good bargains out there now, but it's too early. 8)
Given that you are in the RE industry, how long do you think one has to wait to pick up the bargains?
Amazing that you be posting 2-3 years away from the time period of when to Pick Up a MORTGAGE.. ... Lets call it what it really is~!! Renting Money to hopefully pay the note off in the future.
Im amazed at what terms that throw arround the real-estate office.. ... No real training in what finacially makes sense.. 0 in What a real investor calls investing.. ITS ONLY JUST EMOTIONAL PURCHASE-- And you will be priced out forever..
Please, Investing for what negitive Cash$$$ flow....please.... :idea: give us some actual common sense OF WHY YOU BE POSTING THIS SOON.. ... Those Arms are in the process of HAVING THEIR SLEEVES ROLLED UP... Its a slow process that takes time- this isnt the time to call the end of this process in anything less than 24-48 months would be just to soon..
By this time the Local Car Lot might need some Closers~~ and whats your name, maybe a Used Prius would be in Order~~?.. that Car Lot Position might be gone as well, IF YOU DONT HURRY.
Amazing that you be posting 2-3 years away from the time period of when to Pick Up a MORTGAGE.. ... Lets call it what it really is~!! Renting Money to hopefully pay the note off in the future.
Im amazed at what terms that throw arround the real-estate office.. ... No real training in what finacially makes sense.. 0 in What a real investor calls investing.. ITS ONLY JUST EMOTIONAL PURCHASE-- And you will be priced out forever..
Please, Investing for what negitive Cash$$$ flow....please.... :idea: give us some actual common sense OF WHY YOU BE POSTING THIS SOON.. ... Those Arms are in the process of HAVING THEIR SLEEVES ROLLED UP... Its a slow process that takes time- this isnt the time to call the end of this process in anything less than 24-48 months would be just to soon..
By this time the Local Car Lot might need some Closers~~ and whats your name, maybe a Used Prius would be in Order~~?.. that Car Lot Position might be gone as well, IF YOU DONT HURRY.
Sometimes Forget-- I take for granted many people here understand the Financial Basics... ..
of Cash Flow- how Ownership is Merely an Idea ( Control is the Only thing thats Real ) .. its a subject in its-self.. Its though control where many make there fortune. Its the Middle Class and Poor that think Ownership is the vehicle to wealth... Control a lot Own Very little.. depending on the Situation "Ownership is Expensive and risky.. ESPECIALLY NOW~!!
Its all Really ends up being a contact in the End that gives different levels of rights.. You can "given the circumstances write special provisions that give you increased rights. In a recession it especially brings out the Desperation in people.
I actaully have taken 2 properties With Sublease agreements and made money on the spread rerenting them.. VERY LITTLE RISK.. Works nicely on in some Condo's and Townhouse villages, especially since most people hate yardwork, especially if they feel like there not in a position of ownership.
Lets get off the John Burley- Kiyosaki..
I think everyone here is fairly familiar with (When the Tide Goes Out you find out how many people are Swimming naked.)..
Comments
Kpom -
what's your source for price:rent ratio?
Seattle has one of the highest ratios in the country, according to this
http://www.housingtracker.net/affordability/?sort=price-rent&dir=down
sits right between LA and Miami.
We know the current crazy price:rent gap occured due to expected gains in property values. Now that's dropped to 5 percent YOY in the Seattle area -- and will likely continue on down, and perhaps even drop.
So an investor in a new property in 2007 would have raise the rent a ton to make up for the crazy price:rent ratio that now exists; and the slower appreciation rate.
My question is: how much? If the market levels out, how much would rents need to increase on average for an investor to make money on a new Seattle SFH or Condo with the goal of renting it out?
If that rent increase seems possible to you, then the housing market is doing just fine...
New York Times article, May 27, 2005, which had a table from Economy.com. Seattle/Bellevue-Everett's home price/rental price ratio had gone from 12.8 to 19.0 from 1Q 2000 to 1Q 2005, while the nation had gone from 11.6 to 17.1. (San Francisco went from 12.5 to 34.1, and West Palm Beach-Boca Raton went from 11.6 to 29.4.)
This does seem to be at variance from the table you cited - obviously, the NYT article is a couple of years older, and I don't know how the other article defines "Seattle". The one thing that I find curious about the other table is that it has the price to rent ratio for Cape Coral, FL being lower than Seattle - from everything I've read, Cape Coral is Ground Zero for the housing bubble, and I don't think that people have capitulated enough in Cape Coral to bring the ratio down yet.
I'm seeing a stair step. Inventory rises steeply for a few days. Then it levels off for a few days. Then it climbs again. Then it levels off.
8/8/07 Wednesday - bottom of the first climb
8/10/07 Friday - top of the first climb
8/15/07 Wedneday - bottom of the second climb
8/17/07 Friday - top of the second climb.
So the pattern is way too short to make a prediction with any sort of confidence, but I'll do so anyway. Inventory will rise around 100 units between Wednesday and Friday this week. We may get very close to 10600 by Friday.
Any theories as to what is causing this stair step behavior?
A more nefarious guess is that nothing is selling at all and real estate agents are recommending that sellers post on Wed/Thur/Fri. The result is new posts go up on those days and no sales are made on other days. Mwahaha
When I listed my house for sale I had it posted on Thursday so that it would appear on Friday when a lot of people sift through listings looking at places to visit that weekend.
I would imagine that houses are added (and sold, even at a lower rate) every day, it's just that there is the "end of week" boost due to people like me doing the weekend thing...
...Strategically, what is the best time to list your home for sale?
The answer is as soon as possible after midnight on Thursday morning....
I'm guessing that it'll cross 10500 before 3pm today.
Eastsider wins a cupie doll!
I'm guessing we will see a surge of 70 or so around 2am tonight.
I'm guessing that it'll cross 10600 before 10pm today.
10,600 as of 9:11.
haha, 9:11 NEVER FORGET! :P
Given that you are in the RE industry, how long do you think one has to wait to pick up the bargains?
Im amazed at what terms that throw arround the real-estate office.. ... No real training in what finacially makes sense.. 0 in What a real investor calls investing.. ITS ONLY JUST EMOTIONAL PURCHASE-- And you will be priced out forever..
Please, Investing for what negitive Cash$$$ flow....please.... :idea: give us some actual common sense OF WHY YOU BE POSTING THIS SOON.. ... Those Arms are in the process of HAVING THEIR SLEEVES ROLLED UP... Its a slow process that takes time- this isnt the time to call the end of this process in anything less than 24-48 months would be just to soon..
By this time the Local Car Lot might need some Closers~~ and whats your name, maybe a Used Prius would be in Order~~?.. that Car Lot Position might be gone as well, IF YOU DONT HURRY.
WTF?
I was quite obviously (or so I thought) being facetious.
of Cash Flow- how Ownership is Merely an Idea ( Control is the Only thing thats Real ) .. its a subject in its-self.. Its though control where many make there fortune. Its the Middle Class and Poor that think Ownership is the vehicle to wealth... Control a lot Own Very little.. depending on the Situation "Ownership is Expensive and risky.. ESPECIALLY NOW~!!
Its all Really ends up being a contact in the End that gives different levels of rights.. You can "given the circumstances write special provisions that give you increased rights. In a recession it especially brings out the Desperation in people.
I actaully have taken 2 properties With Sublease agreements and made money on the spread rerenting them.. VERY LITTLE RISK.. Works nicely on in some Condo's and Townhouse villages, especially since most people hate yardwork, especially if they feel like there not in a position of ownership.
Lets get off the John Burley- Kiyosaki..
I think everyone here is fairly familiar with (When the Tide Goes Out you find out how many people are Swimming naked.)..
Lets Just Leave it that~!!