Need Help
Heres the situation:
I have two roommates both considering buying, one a condo in Seattle and the other an SFH in the Brier area.
They think I'm a loon and the only person they have ever talked to that does not believe real estate only goes up.
How can I can break this down in a clear and easy manner for them. That there are several things at play right now that more than likely will put downward pressure on prices.
They are both still under the impression that you don't need a down payment either...
I have two roommates both considering buying, one a condo in Seattle and the other an SFH in the Brier area.
They think I'm a loon and the only person they have ever talked to that does not believe real estate only goes up.
How can I can break this down in a clear and easy manner for them. That there are several things at play right now that more than likely will put downward pressure on prices.
They are both still under the impression that you don't need a down payment either...
Comments
If they can really afford it, and can still afford it in 3-5 years w/o having to refinance in the mean time, then I'd say let them go for it! It's a free country.
Your situation reminds me of the John Carpenter movie They Live from 1988, where Roddy Piper's character finds a pair of special sunglasses which allow him to see the 'truth' (that there are aliens living among us).
At one point in the story, he tries to convince his friend to try on the sunglasses, and the friend doesn't want to. This leads to a fistfight, with Roddy finally winning and putting the glasses on his friend's face by force, revealing the truth to him. A clever twist on the rose-colored glasses analogy.
Are you willing to go to this length, and (more importantly), do you have the pair of special glasses handy?
http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html
or
Play with the NYT Buy vs. Rent calculator and consider that in a recent Seattle PI article a commentator stated that it could take 10 Years before prices rise above their 2007 peak. That means that the housing appreciation factor you set in the calculator could be at the inflation rate, say 3-4%. I bet the rent option at the same rate looks pretty good from 7 - 30 years out if they invest their 20% at stock market rates (preferably overseas!).
Hope this helps.
I remember that movie.