Why Puget Sound RE will be gold in the future...
I think the potential for the Puget Sound are is huge. I'll list the factors, please tell me if the thinking is flawed:
1. For the short term, the Iraq war. From what I understand, a lot of the army military operations were consolidated at Fort Lewis. In fact, I heard that the stryker brigade is one of the few successful operations in Iraq and that originates from Fort Lewis. This war/occupation is going to last a long long time despite what politicians say. So funding for Fort Lewis should last just as long.
2. Ports. Seattle/Tacoma has the 3rd largest port collection on the west coast behind LA and Long Beach. As a major artery for goods to flow through especially as we forever become more and more dependent on Chinese goods, Puget Sound area can only grow and become more vital as the LA ports are nearing capacity.
3. Microsoft/Boeing. They are only 2 companies, but they are the dominant leaders in vital industries that will never ever go away. Even after the sun explodes, these two companies and their future technologies will be embedded in the craft that we eventually will depart in(ok, that was a little crazy, but you get the gist).
4. Global warming. Will suck the closer you get to equator. Fortunately, the Puget Sound is nowhere near to the equator and the weather is going to be just great. Canada will become more wealthy as oil becomes more and more valuable and their tundra become livable and arable land. The border(american) cities will benefit from this via the trickle down principle.
5. Illegal immigration. When I visited the South Puget sound area, who did I see building the buildings? Caucasians! Being from socal, that was a new sight from me. Despite how people say they aren't prejudiced, there will still be a white flight from the border states as california, arizona, texas becomes 40,50,60% latino. Whites could go to idaho or montana, but why not an area where the weather will be more temperate due to the pacific?
1. For the short term, the Iraq war. From what I understand, a lot of the army military operations were consolidated at Fort Lewis. In fact, I heard that the stryker brigade is one of the few successful operations in Iraq and that originates from Fort Lewis. This war/occupation is going to last a long long time despite what politicians say. So funding for Fort Lewis should last just as long.
2. Ports. Seattle/Tacoma has the 3rd largest port collection on the west coast behind LA and Long Beach. As a major artery for goods to flow through especially as we forever become more and more dependent on Chinese goods, Puget Sound area can only grow and become more vital as the LA ports are nearing capacity.
3. Microsoft/Boeing. They are only 2 companies, but they are the dominant leaders in vital industries that will never ever go away. Even after the sun explodes, these two companies and their future technologies will be embedded in the craft that we eventually will depart in(ok, that was a little crazy, but you get the gist).
4. Global warming. Will suck the closer you get to equator. Fortunately, the Puget Sound is nowhere near to the equator and the weather is going to be just great. Canada will become more wealthy as oil becomes more and more valuable and their tundra become livable and arable land. The border(american) cities will benefit from this via the trickle down principle.
5. Illegal immigration. When I visited the South Puget sound area, who did I see building the buildings? Caucasians! Being from socal, that was a new sight from me. Despite how people say they aren't prejudiced, there will still be a white flight from the border states as california, arizona, texas becomes 40,50,60% latino. Whites could go to idaho or montana, but why not an area where the weather will be more temperate due to the pacific?
Comments
2. Perhaps.
3. High paying job isn't being created in Seattle as much as everyone likes to think it is. Read up the pretty recent archive on this blog.
4. ...
5. Just plain bad observation without fact.
The ports won't be all that profitable if we go into a global recession and imports/exports drop significantly.
The major employers in our region are HIGHLY vulnerable to recessions. Boeing's order book can drop like a rock during recessions. Likewise, even Microsoft feels pain when the economy is stressed. Back in 2002 (when the economy was barely even feeling a mild recession) Microsoft really scaled back on hiring. It was hard to get approvals to hire anyone at the time. Just watch what happens if we have a major recession...
A growing population doesn't mean much. There are plenty of places in the US with growing populations but that doesn't necessarily equate to rising house prices. Arizona, Las Vegas, and Florida have been experiencing massive population influxes. Just look what's happening to their real estate market.
As far as global warming goes, who knows what will happen. But the shear uncertainty of the whole thing (who it will effect, how, etc) makes it a poor basis on which to make investment decisions.
I've got major issues with this post.
1. A military base is not a significant forcing function for real estate. Most personal live on base, and they are paid low wages which generally preclude them from buying real estate or even renting a normal home/appt.
2. This is a significant source of jobs today. I am hesitant to proclaim it will grow forever. It is not possible for us to continue importing more from China forever. If we started exporting more to China and they imported the same however, then employment would grow. Long term however, this is not a 'human labor' growth industry, as most of the work can be done better by robotics.
3. This has been covered agonizingly. Detroit led the world in automobiles and Kansas in corn. Both have a future, but it hasn't helped real estate prices.
4. All predictions are at this point computerized models. They are not consistent, and there is not valid way to argue this point. Global warming could just as easily bring massive winter storms as bring balmy weather to this region. Nobody on this site (or indeed the world) are qualified to make such exact economic predictions regarding global warming.
5. That's just insane. Your argument is "white people hate immigrants so they will flee southern states"???? I'm just flabbergasted.
I've lived in the Bronx and I've lived in the San Fernando Valley. Both areas used to be all white suburbs. Now both are predominantly latino urban settings where those with means, send their kids to private schools AND they move out or move into the hills. Do you have a better explanation for this phenomena?
#5 is just outlandishly bad assumption, really not worth discussing and beyond the scope of most people's awareness.
Shades of Mexican
Yes actually. In short, poor people live in cheaper neighborhoods. A number of social ills follow around poor people (for many reasons). 'Whitey' leaves because the schools degrade and the neighborhood becomes more dangerous. It just so happens that often immigrants start out poor.
Let me just fill you in on why people are against illegal immigration. Everyone knows deep down that the economy is ready to go to pot. They are scared, and when that happens they blame whoever is pushing wages down. Step in illegal immigrants. For the record, Americans have had issues with mass immigrations for a long time. Irish are white, but they weren't cut any slack. Finally, it's threatening when your language stops being spoken. LA has what, 100 Spanish radio stations? Watch the South Park 'Wetbacks' episode to get a much more realistic picture than your current one.
I found this link because I was doing research to see how the present parallels with the Great Depression era, if at all. Scroll down to Feb. 1931.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/rails/timeline/index.html
http://tinyurl.com/34js7h
inflation is at 14%
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yeah right. 14%.