Inventory up 44% YOY. (10,400 SFH on market)
Sales down 9% YOY. (2,577 SFH sales)
I should mention that inventory as reported by the NWMLS has been ~250 below the sidebar ticker the last two months, hence my 10,400 guess translates to a 10,650 sidebar ticker at the end of the month.
I am reluctant to venture a guess on changes in the median, since it appears to be affected more by the change in sales mix than in actual home values.
Kingco SFH median for July was about 10.6%. Safe to say it will be less than that, but I'd bet you won't shave more than 2% off - so say 8%-ish
In terms of the chart Alan referred to, I have a better model for Case-Shiller now, which predicts M2M performance instead of Y2Y. Historical accuracy is r^2 just a shade under 80%
For June, it was pretty accurate -
____ Pred__ Actual
M2M_.53%__.65%
Y2Y__8.1%__7.9%
Corresponding August figures are .25% and 6.1% - almost a 3 point drop.
Since August is a "hot" sales month I am betting we won't see all of this change reflected in the median. C/S index is for all of King/Snoho/Pierce county SFH. The correlation between C/S and Kingco median SFH is only about 70%, mostly because C/S uses a 3 month rolling average to calculate their data so their numbers smooth out much of the volatility you see in the median
After reading how volume has dropped off in LA and OC (50% and 33% respectively) I am rethinking my forecast. I think we are going to see the tightness in Jumbos affect the volume on the top end - which is going to shift down the median. will be easiest to see in Bellevue and Mercer Island.
will be interesting. I expect the numbers should be out today?
After reading how volume has dropped off in LA and OC (50% and 33% respectively) I am rethinking my forecast. I think we are going to see the tightness in Jumbos affect the volume on the top end - which is going to shift down the median. will be easiest to see in Bellevue and Mercer Island.
well, now we have some numbers (SFH stats):
Mercer Island (area 510) - Pending sales off 46%, Price down 7.5% - from $1mm even to $925k
West Bellevue (area 520) - Pending sales off 19%, Price down 4.7% - from $1,418k to $1,352k
Those are 100% jumbo territory, the two highest priced areas in the state. Both saw declines in price for the first time I can remember.
I think the Jumbo spread has narrowed back now. It will be interesting to see if they pop back up next month.
Anecdotally (from an economist friend who lived here then), during the early 1990s downturn the high-end SFH and the condos, particularly the new condos, are the segment of the market that took the biggest bath.
Comments
Sales down 5% YOY.
Median price up 6% YOY.
(edited in response to question below.)
Sales down 9% YOY. (2,577 SFH sales)
I should mention that inventory as reported by the NWMLS has been ~250 below the sidebar ticker the last two months, hence my 10,400 guess translates to a 10,650 sidebar ticker at the end of the month.
Median price up 4% YOY.
Just give me a minute to get a CD ready so I can burn this to a disk and rub your face in it when it turns out to be wrong... :evil:
Oops, did I type that out loud? GAH!
In terms of the chart Alan referred to, I have a better model for Case-Shiller now, which predicts M2M performance instead of Y2Y. Historical accuracy is r^2 just a shade under 80%
For June, it was pretty accurate -
____ Pred__ Actual
M2M_.53%__.65%
Y2Y__8.1%__7.9%
Corresponding August figures are .25% and 6.1% - almost a 3 point drop.
Since August is a "hot" sales month I am betting we won't see all of this change reflected in the median. C/S index is for all of King/Snoho/Pierce county SFH. The correlation between C/S and Kingco median SFH is only about 70%, mostly because C/S uses a 3 month rolling average to calculate their data so their numbers smooth out much of the volatility you see in the median
I'm glad my somewhat hazy memory of DJO's chart was close.
will be interesting. I expect the numbers should be out today?
well, now we have some numbers (SFH stats):
Mercer Island (area 510) - Pending sales off 46%, Price down 7.5% - from $1mm even to $925k
West Bellevue (area 520) - Pending sales off 19%, Price down 4.7% - from $1,418k to $1,352k
Those are 100% jumbo territory, the two highest priced areas in the state. Both saw declines in price for the first time I can remember.
I think the Jumbo spread has narrowed back now. It will be interesting to see if they pop back up next month.