I started reading this blog after getting here from The Housing Bubble Blog over a year ago. I like the data and analysis oriented posts here. Less so at Rain City but they are still fairly tolerant and do make an attempt at addressing contrary questions.
At the Seattle P-I blog, the arrogance and attitude is stunning. They take offense to anyone not using their real name. Seriously, what is it about user names that so freaks them out?
You have a lot of patience, Tim. Its pretty impressive how you handled Sandy's responses to your posts. Over at Rain City, Sandy and Ardell cluck-clucked about how terrible these people wishing for price declines are. Sandy even signaled her disgust with an "Ugh!"
I think I'm done with the Seattle P-I blog. They can keep patting each other on the back for the brilliance of their posts (Smug? Now thats a swell word. Wish I'd thought of using that word, Fellow-Realtor!). I just dont think there's anything to be learned there.
At the Seattle P-I blog, the arrogance and attitude is stunning. They take offense to anyone not using their real name. Seriously, what is it about user names that so freaks them out?
It's a self defense mechanism. Some of the realtors come from a two-realtor family. Husband and wife, both realtors. Or one's a realtor and one's a mortgage broker. It would be hard to admit or even gesture towards a weakening housing environment when you know that would affect your standard of living significantly.
It's a similar thing for those in any industry. These Japanese cars they're importing are total crap and will absolutely not have an impact on GM, they must have thought. And, there is no way on earth that we could outsource IT work to India or China - it's just too complicated!
From what I've read here realtors are given as much respect as reporters, lawyers, used car salesmen, and other professions. So I don't see an "anti-realtor" tone on this blog. If realtors feel like they're not getting enough respect these days, perhaps they should be asking themselves why.
anamik wrote:
"At the Seattle P-I blog, the arrogance and attitude is stunning. They take offense to anyone not using their real name. Seriously, what is it about user names that so freaks them out?"
The biggest denouncer of anonymous users on the P-I blog is a guy named Mack McCoy, who is a real estate agent who sells houses in Ballard, and is married to another real estate agent. Although he rains invective on anyone questioning the Seattle real estate market, he is not a fool.
Check out http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/07/0 ... onspiracy/ from last summer - McCoy sold a house in Ballard for $700K, and bought a downtown condo for $450K. So whatever he says on the P-I blog, he had the sense to reduce his real estate exposure by more than a third at the top of the market.
Rereading that thread in any case is a trip down memory lane - it has a real fin d'siecle feel to it: meshugy and others repeatedly denouncing and mocking the unbelievers in RE. It has been only a little more than a year, but the terms of discussion have truly changed...
I see a lot of housing bulls pulling the "well, nobody can predict the future" move lately (Angie, Rhonda, Ardell, and now Sandy). They can't find a way to reasonably make their "interpretations" fit the data and so they just give up. "Nobody can predict the future" is a pretty crappy reason to not make reasonable assumptions about future events, or have discussions about future events.
I also have a pet peeve with people that claim we need balance and differing viewpoints. It's just a catch-all phrase that really doesn't apply everywhere and the person using it usually is just trying to avoid losing in an argument. In order to be "balanced" and offer differing viewpoints I guess we should teach kids astrology as well as astronomy in science class. I should visit racist and racially tolerant websites regularly to make sure I get a balanced viewpoint. :roll:
I see a lot of housing bulls pulling the "well, nobody can predict the future" move lately (Angie, Rhonda, Ardell, and now Sandy). They can't find a way to reasonably make their "interpretations" fit the data and so they just give up. "Nobody can predict the future" is a pretty crappy reason to not make reasonable assumptions about future events, or have discussions about future events.
Two fundamental laws of business.
1) The best way to predict the future is by extrapolating past experience. Use this strategy religiously.
2) You cannot predict the future, so do not even try.
She's referring to the discussion that took place on this post.
She says:
"I had thought once of taking one of your anti-realtor posts and substituting the word "realtor" for something else--some other group that has historically been despised. ...the overall level of discussion says more about the person writing than it does about the subject.
In other words, there is a point at which a belief becomes an "ism" and your website would indicate that you are beyond that point."
I don't get why they confuse "pro price declines" with "anti realtor". Real-estate professionals are most affected by volume--price is by far a secondary factor (the commission on 2 houses at $400K is worth far more than 1 house at $500K). Consider that prices, even in incredible bull markets, move by perhaps 20% per year, but Los Angeles just saw volume by 50% YOY, and Seattle's volumes are probably going to follow suit. Almost anyone in real-estate (except perhaps developers) would be earning more if prices rapidly decreased to the level where the market could start moving again. The longer it takes for prices to fall the longer they'll have to live with depressed volumes, the real bane of their existence.[/b]
Comments
At the Seattle P-I blog, the arrogance and attitude is stunning. They take offense to anyone not using their real name. Seriously, what is it about user names that so freaks them out?
You have a lot of patience, Tim. Its pretty impressive how you handled Sandy's responses to your posts. Over at Rain City, Sandy and Ardell cluck-clucked about how terrible these people wishing for price declines are. Sandy even signaled her disgust with an "Ugh!"
I think I'm done with the Seattle P-I blog. They can keep patting each other on the back for the brilliance of their posts (Smug? Now thats a swell word. Wish I'd thought of using that word, Fellow-Realtor!). I just dont think there's anything to be learned there.
It's a self defense mechanism. Some of the realtors come from a two-realtor family. Husband and wife, both realtors. Or one's a realtor and one's a mortgage broker. It would be hard to admit or even gesture towards a weakening housing environment when you know that would affect your standard of living significantly.
It's a similar thing for those in any industry. These Japanese cars they're importing are total crap and will absolutely not have an impact on GM, they must have thought. And, there is no way on earth that we could outsource IT work to India or China - it's just too complicated!
"At the Seattle P-I blog, the arrogance and attitude is stunning. They take offense to anyone not using their real name. Seriously, what is it about user names that so freaks them out?"
The biggest denouncer of anonymous users on the P-I blog is a guy named Mack McCoy, who is a real estate agent who sells houses in Ballard, and is married to another real estate agent. Although he rains invective on anyone questioning the Seattle real estate market, he is not a fool.
Check out http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2006/07/0 ... onspiracy/ from last summer - McCoy sold a house in Ballard for $700K, and bought a downtown condo for $450K. So whatever he says on the P-I blog, he had the sense to reduce his real estate exposure by more than a third at the top of the market.
Rereading that thread in any case is a trip down memory lane - it has a real fin d'siecle feel to it: meshugy and others repeatedly denouncing and mocking the unbelievers in RE. It has been only a little more than a year, but the terms of discussion have truly changed...
I also have a pet peeve with people that claim we need balance and differing viewpoints. It's just a catch-all phrase that really doesn't apply everywhere and the person using it usually is just trying to avoid losing in an argument. In order to be "balanced" and offer differing viewpoints I guess we should teach kids astrology as well as astronomy in science class. I should visit racist and racially tolerant websites regularly to make sure I get a balanced viewpoint. :roll:
Two fundamental laws of business.
1) The best way to predict the future is by extrapolating past experience. Use this strategy religiously.
2) You cannot predict the future, so do not even try.
She says:
"I had thought once of taking one of your anti-realtor posts and substituting the word "realtor" for something else--some other group that has historically been despised. ...the overall level of discussion says more about the person writing than it does about the subject.
In other words, there is a point at which a belief becomes an "ism" and your website would indicate that you are beyond that point."
Realism?