Inventory up 40% - yup, I agree
I think sales will be down closer to 25% - only because last September was a pretty crappy month - down 20% from the year before. 25% drop puts the total at about 1700 - which would be the worst Sept since 2001.
Median price? who knows! With sales dropping like that it's impossible to say what has happened to the mix. I suspect the jumbo issue is hitting the top of the market disproportionately - but can't say how it will show up. Best guess M2M is down 2%, maybe 4% on the high end
Media will focus on the YoY number in any case - which could be north of 10% - because the 11 month total since Sept 06 is 11.9%...
I thought that too - but in looking at Tim's spreadsheet, I saw last Sept pending sales were ~2200 - and 40% off that would be 1320, which would be the lowest sales total since 2000.
USA Today data might have been for King/Snoho/Pierce counties.
Last month the supply of houses was up 40.2 percent year-over-year — lower than July's high of 45.8 percent, but still nearly double inventory increases seen at the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile sales are lagging. Last month offers were accepted on 1,541 King County houses — a 32 percent drop from the previous September's 2,271 sales.
Last month the supply of houses was up 40.2 percent year-over-year — lower than July's high of 45.8 percent, but still nearly double inventory increases seen at the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile sales are lagging. Last month offers were accepted on 1,541 King County houses — a 32 percent drop from the previous September's 2,271 sales.
I love it when a plan comes together.
off the top of my head, I think those are the worst sales numbers since ~2001 - and all of the low months are in Dec and Jan. Prepare for ~1000 unit sales levels...
I just plugged the numbers into Tim's spreadsheet.
Median price on KC SFH is down 5.7% this month.
That's about twice what I expected. Wiped out half of the year's gains.
To temper the enthusiasm, Sept looks like it is usually one of the weakest months of the year for price increases. It was negative in both 2005 and 2006 -which were banner years for appreciation, and close to zero in 2004
Comments
Sales down 30% YOY.
I pulled the sales number out of thin air.
I think sales will be down closer to 25% - only because last September was a pretty crappy month - down 20% from the year before. 25% drop puts the total at about 1700 - which would be the worst Sept since 2001.
Median price? who knows! With sales dropping like that it's impossible to say what has happened to the mix. I suspect the jumbo issue is hitting the top of the market disproportionately - but can't say how it will show up. Best guess M2M is down 2%, maybe 4% on the high end
Media will focus on the YoY number in any case - which could be north of 10% - because the 11 month total since Sept 06 is 11.9%...
this is all KC SFH
I thought that too - but in looking at Tim's spreadsheet, I saw last Sept pending sales were ~2200 - and 40% off that would be 1320, which would be the lowest sales total since 2000.
USA Today data might have been for King/Snoho/Pierce counties.
I love it when a plan comes together.
off the top of my head, I think those are the worst sales numbers since ~2001 - and all of the low months are in Dec and Jan. Prepare for ~1000 unit sales levels...
Median price on KC SFH is down 5.7% this month.
That's about twice what I expected. Wiped out half of the year's gains.
To temper the enthusiasm, Sept looks like it is usually one of the weakest months of the year for price increases. It was negative in both 2005 and 2006 -which were banner years for appreciation, and close to zero in 2004