so when will close-in Seattle prices start to go down?

edited October 2007 in Seattle Real Estate
Hi all -- we have been following the market for months, waiting for it to go down (we need to live near Wallingofrd for school, plan to own for 8-10+ years). I'm doing my research, even going so far as keeping track of the averages of three map searches on redfin.com. The search criteria is 2+Bed, 1+Bath, 1750 ft2 minimum, up to $650K (we were preapproved for a 30-year conventional and have the rest in cash). The three map areas I search are Pine to 45th NE, 45th to 103rd, and 103rd to 140th (that's pushing it, but the golf course could make up for the inconvenience of being further from the kids school). I just checked the searches again tonight, and they have barely budged since my last check Sept. 18! In fact, price per square foot has gone UP to $232 north of 103rd! What are your thoughts on this? Why are prices *seemingly* dropping like rocks outside of Seattle, but we are still facing the same prices, prices per feet, etc in city? Is there any hope? Dare I ask, will we be "priced out forever" if we wait any longer for this market drop to happen? I'm starting to feel that at this rate, the kid will be in high school by the time we buy, and being near Wallingford won't matter anymore...

Comments

  • Wait till tomorrow, I heard rumors that all prices will slash by half tomorrow at around 1pm.

    Everything is speculation.
  • pumpkin wrote:
    Why are prices *seemingly* dropping like rocks outside of Seattle, but we are still facing the same prices, prices per feet, etc in city? Is there any hope?

    In any downturn the outer areas will always go down first. The closer you are to the job cores the longer you'll be waiting for any possible cuts in prices.
  • MrRational wrote:

    In any downturn the outer areas will always go down first. The closer you are to the job cores the longer you'll be waiting for any possible cuts in prices.

    I hear this sentiment a lot, but I wanted to add to it. It has to do with scarcity. For SFHs, they aren't building all that many more near urban centers so supply is fairly constant while demand increases.

    Condos are another story completely. The supply of condos in urban centers is increasing rapidly, while demand is currently decreasing (specuvestors leaving the market).
  • Thanks, yeah, our lack of interest in townhomes/condos seems to be a problem. We can't compromise though, since we have a dog and spent too many years as renters sharing walls with others. Hubby is a construction defect litigator, so he is not interested in any homes built after 1980 or so...

    I'm wondering if the jumbo loan problem will ever put a cap on Wallingford/Phinney prices? Maybe at some point soon those of us with large down payments will win the day, except we still can't go over $650 (nor do we want to). *sigh*
  • Are you planning a redfin only buy?

    I bought in january, during the storm. Completed an offer STI below the asking price when weeks earlier everything was a bidding war. In any market, some people need to sell fast.

    If redfin cost 1.5% and $125 per house visit, I think in a complicated market when you are ready to buy it would make the most sense to try and find a good realtor and negotiate either a fixed price or 2% rate or some such thing I might add a speed clause where if you buy very quickly the rate is much lower. I easily went and looked at 40+ houses in a period of about 18 months after a long redfin watching period, and our realtors after watching our reactions to places and prices we looked at started to find things that matched what we wanted and could afford. Pretty soon they were emailing us properties and setting up routes where we could visit 5 or 6 properties in a couple of hours and go back about our lives.

    Redfin was often behind a day or two and full of the low "start a bidding war on your home depot renovation" listings now it looks as though redfin is full of listings priced too high. Somebody has to weed out the crap, I'm glad it was not me.

    If you are only using the internet, I found looking at a short timeframe zillow recently sold properties search using bed bath criteria gave me a better feel for where prices actually were than listings. Even in a hot market the listing price was really the "MSRP", should be even more true now.

    I think with some patience, you could get what you want for under $600,000.
  • Thanks, Garth- I am working with an agent (starts with a W), but have been using the redfin searches to monitor averages and get the long view of the market with statistics. My husband asked why I'm not going through redfin since I'm already doing so much research myself, but the fact is I don't want to have to pay each time I want to view a house -- I've already seen about 20 with the agent. They were all **** considering their asking prices; I'm so amazed that $600K in the 98103/05/15/13 zip codes means we're slumming it!
  • I think this is wrong.

    Look at the trends and be patient. People do want condos. Aging boomers for instance. Many want to downsize, but have been waiting because condo prices are so ridiculous.

    Now they will start downsizing thanks to the fire sale on condos that should be running through at least 2010 (if you look at forecasts for new condo construction in 2008 and 2009, this ship is very big and it's sinking fast).

    Add this SFH inventory to the weak market we're seeing now and...look out below.

    The problem for you is the bottom here could be a lo-o-o-ng way off. 7 years or so.

    I hear this sentiment a lot, but I wanted to add to it. It has to do with scarcity. For SFHs, they aren't building all that many more near urban centers so supply is fairly constant while demand increases.

    Condos are another story completely. The supply of condos in urban centers is increasing rapidly, while demand is currently decreasing (specuvestors leaving the market).
  • george wrote:
    People do want condos. Aging boomers for instance. Many want to downsize, but have been waiting because condo prices are so ridiculous.

    I have heard this asserted by dozens of real estate agents, condo developers, and city officials - but I have personally never seen one piece of data that suggests it is really a trend. Lots of empty condos are betting on it...

    I think this article speaks to reality

    http://www.nbnnews.com/NBN/textonly/200 ... ntall.html
  • A little time w/my friend Mr. Google found this study, which seems pretty comprehensive - and seems to conclude there is not any real basis for the assertion. First real data I have seen, FWIW (warning, 5mb PDF!)

    Housing Trends Among Baby Boomers
    Overall, when the tabulations in Figures 12A–17B and Tables 8–10 are viewed in combination, they indicate that on a national scale empty-nest retirement-age suburban homeowners are not flocking to urban areas in great numbers. In particular, over the last decade, in a given five-year period, the results indicate that only 2.1 percent of all empty-nest retirement-age suburban homeowners can be expected to move to an urban area. Moreover, this suburban-to-urban flow of homeowners represents just 5 percent of all retirement-age empty-nest homeowners located in central cities. In fact, when the urban-to-suburban flow of empty-nesters is taken into account, the net migration effect from the suburbs to urban area is –7.2 percent. That is, any return of empty-nesters to the urban core is not enough to stem the tide of urban-suburban flight
  • In all my bubble-blog browsing, I've come across a handy exurb-suburb-urban deflating bubble depiction, but I cannot seem to find it!

    Has anyone else seen it?

    It shows how exurban houses far from the main city/employment center decrease in value first, then the closer suburban houses, then the urban housing.

    In general, that is what happened in the Boston area, with the less desirable communities (suburban and exurban) getting hit faster and harder and the more desirable suburban (i.e. excellent school districts) weathering the storm a bit better, but still price drops all around.

    Now, I'm watching it happen in the SF Bay Area, and it is a similar pattern, but no price drops (yet) in the highly desirable suburban (i.e. excellent school districts) communities. There are just too many dang millionaires here, and I'm beginning to wonder if there ever will be price drops in some communities.

    Anyways, sounds like the deflating bubble is happening according to that depiction in the Seattle area...? With the first price drops in Pierce County, then Snohomish should be next, then King.

    Wish I could find that depiction.
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