There has been an increase of 700 since the beginning of the month. We still have half the month left. If we see another 700 then we will hit 11800. I'm sticking with my 11600 prediction.
There has been an increase of 700 since the beginning of the month. We still have half the month left. If we see another 700 then we will hit 11800. I'm sticking with my 11600 prediction.
Yes, there a big increase last weekend. But, this weekend the increase was very moderate (around 100??). So, I wouldn't go by the increase over just one weekend.
My prediction is based more on the YOY increase the past few months. 45% YOY gets us to 11600. Maybe you have a theory on why things have changed this month?
Also, you make no sense. "wouldn't go by the increase over just one weekend"? Fine. How about using the increase of the past two weeks instead of the past two days.
I think 12k is a long shot. Most closings happen at the end of the month and that causes inventory to stagnate the last week and the first week of the month. Maybe 15% chance of getting there? However, inventory started increasing earlier in September as compared to August and June. Maybe it will also stop increasing later?
I put 11600 at 80% today. On 9/10 I would have put it at 50%. I think there is a 50% chance we will get to 11750. But predictions are more meaninful the further in advance you make them so I'll stick to 11600.
Conforming fixed rates are slightly higher over last week's rate quote. This following the Fed's move on Tuesday and yesterday's testimony to the House by Ben Bernanke and group topped off with a huge rally in the stock market. There was plenty of talk from the panel supporting a temporary raise of conforming loan limits to help ease the jumbo markets.
Rates and products change constantly during these volatile times in the mortgage industry. Just yesterday, many lenders issued four rate sheets (a "normal day" would be one). I highly recommend locking your mortgage rate and program as well as getting preapproved as soon as possible when considering obtaining a mortgage.
It looks like we've hit the 'closing period' for September. Inventory has been flat the past few days starting on the 24th. 11600 inventory is looking unlikely this month. I expect inventory to drop in October so this may be the high water mark for 2007.
Closing season started on the 20th in July and the 24th in August.
Wow. The Friday jump was big today. We are sitting at 11530. Can we get 70 more houses on the market this weekend to match my prediction? I don't think its likely, but then I didn't expect the jump of 90 today either.
What is the best guess were the inventory is going to wind up at the end of October? It seems to be climbing back up again. Based on the charts of resets for ARMS, I thought October and November would be big months for increases in inventory. Not sure if seasonality is going to hold up this year in the winter decrease in inventory. I guess the big question is what is the maximum inventory reasonably possible/probable for King County?
I have no idea where inventory will be at the end of October. Historically, inventory dips in the winter. Based on Tim's graphs, the dip usually starts around September/October. The dynamics are different this year and that makes it very difficult to predict.
I guess the question would be better asked; what are the closing (sales) in October going to be? There has to be some smart people at some of there home builders running the number right now as to were they need to price the houses coming on line this month to move the inventory.
The wave of arms resetting won't show up in inventory for a few months because usually a homedebtor will be able to scrape together a few payments before defaulting and it takes a while for the lender to foreclose. Plus since foreclosures are high, lenders are taking longer than usual to foreclose because they just don't have the manpower.
The wave of arms resetting won't show up in inventory for a few months because usually a homedebtor will be able to scrape together a few payments before defaulting and it takes a while for the lender to foreclose.
I read a stat that the majority of foreclosures on conforming mortgages typically peak 3-4 years after purchase. Even when payments aren't adjusting up, the financial strains of ownership eventually add up.
Combine the masses of underqualified buyers from the last 3 yrs with payment adjustments and the normal difficulties associated with maintaining a mortgage and it seems clear most markets will have a steady stream of defaults for several years.
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Doesn't look like we are going to hit 11,600 by the end of the month.
Yes, there a big increase last weekend. But, this weekend the increase was very moderate (around 100??). So, I wouldn't go by the increase over just one weekend.
Also, you make no sense. "wouldn't go by the increase over just one weekend"? Fine. How about using the increase of the past two weeks instead of the past two days.
I put 11600 at 80% today. On 9/10 I would have put it at 50%. I think there is a 50% chance we will get to 11750. But predictions are more meaninful the further in advance you make them so I'll stick to 11600.
I guessed really close to the August high of 10600 on 8/6.
I think it is likely that I am suffering from a case of confirmation bias.
I'm going to blame the lowered interest rates if I am wrong.
:twisted:
lowered rates?
It's Bernanke's fault!
Closing season started on the 20th in July and the 24th in August.
Either we're darn good, or just darn lucky . . .
I read a stat that the majority of foreclosures on conforming mortgages typically peak 3-4 years after purchase. Even when payments aren't adjusting up, the financial strains of ownership eventually add up.
Combine the masses of underqualified buyers from the last 3 yrs with payment adjustments and the normal difficulties associated with maintaining a mortgage and it seems clear most markets will have a steady stream of defaults for several years.