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Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home price index

meshugymeshugy
edited March 2007 in Seattle Real Estate
Look how well Seattle is faring (currently at Peak):


0303-biz-websubCHARTS.gif

Some areas continue to do well. Prices in Seattle rose 12.1 percent last year, the only double-digit rise, although Portland, Ore., came close with a 9.9 percent gain. In 2005, by contrast, half the areas recorded double-digit gains.

Wow, if we aren't special then how do you explain that?

More info here:

When It Comes to House Prices, the Bloom Is Off the Cactus

Comments

  • TJ_98370TJ_98370
    We ARE special. We arrived at the party fashionably late!
  • synthetiksynthetik
    if you understand that we've peaked recently, they why don't you sell?

    Shug, how about a wager?

    I'd wager $1,000 that your home will not be worth more than it is today by the end of the year. Whoever is wrong donates $1,000 to The Tim's blog.

    What do you think? Since you seem to believe in never-ending appreciating, this should be an easy one for you.
  • deejayohdeejayoh
    Seattle trend
    11.1% for the year
    Nov-Dec: 0%
    Dec-jan: 0%

    11% in ten months, 0% in the last two. As they say "the trend is your friend"
  • meshugymeshugy
    deejayoh wrote:

    11% in ten months, 0% in the last two. As they say "the trend is your friend"

    and "the season is the reason."


    Even in the hottest years price changes little over the winter...
  • deejayohdeejayoh
    and "the season is the reason."
    Even in the hottest years price changes little over the winter...

    remove seasonality,and look at Nov-Jan changes year to year you will see big years are generally correlated to good Nov/Jan.

    That said, I think we are in untested waters today. March will be interesting

    _______Nov-Jan____Year
    2001_____0.3%_____4.5
    2002_____-0.2______4.1
    2003_____-0.1______7.1
    2004______0.7_____11.4
    2005_____2.0 ______18.5
    2006 _____1.7 ______12.0
    2007 _____0.0 ______ n/a


    Sorry bout the funky formating. This forum doesnt like tables
  • AlanAlan
    That data would support Shug's prediction of single digit appreciation.
  • deejayohdeejayoh
    That data would support Shug's prediction of single digit appreciation

    Alan

    yup, everything else constant - I would agree. I even think we will see a few more months of appreciation

    The unknown is what impact tighter lending standards, decreased consumer confidence, economic slowdown, etc will have on the longer term rate of appreciation.

    That is why I say March numbers will be interesting. Not the end of the story, but a good indicator on at least the first item on my list above.

    D
  • AlanAlan
    The articles I have read about bubbles say the beginnings and ends are impossible to predict. Unless someone comes up with a theory how current income levels can support current prices and can support that theory with data, I remain in the bubble camp. That being said, I agree with Shug that the market seems strong right now. I make no claims about when the bubble will pop, but everything I know tells me that it will.

    I expect the lending industry problems to have an impact. I do not know how long that impact will take to express.
  • deejayohdeejayoh
    D: nodding vigorously to express agreement
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