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Shorting CFC

casey1167casey1167
edited March 2008 in The Economy
Does anyone know if there are mutual funds out there that are short on Countrywide? Sort of the same as a Mutual fund like BEARX would be on the market?

I just was trying to figure if I could short CFC through my 401(k)
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Comments

  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    401k wouldn't let you short. It might be a little risky to short CFC now. If you are bearish in general, look at some Dedicated Short Bias funds. I would probably wait until FED rate cut on Dec 11 and get in when the market rally.
  • casey1167casey1167
    Well, CFC closed down 10.5% today. Not to sound greedy, but I would have liked to be part of that action....
  • bilirubenbiliruben
    Yeah - I covered at 15 for a 50% gain, but I wish I'd been greedier. Also covered FED too early.
  • casey1167casey1167
    Last I read 18.50% of outstanding shares of CFC are shorted, but it seems like most people were covering at $9.

    I just don't see how CFC is going to be a going concern long term.
  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    Well would've, could've, should've. Holidays sales data was up "8%", Hang Seng rose 1000 points, the market could've gone the other way.

    I have C puts that I sold two weeks ago, how's that for kicking myself. I took some profits when CFC dipped to 8+ last week, now I am just going to ride what I still own to the ground. Did I mention I own WM puts since August? Thanks Seattle Bubble, couldn't make it without you. :) I have a piece of GS action too, plenty of meat left, short that if you have the balls. Thanks Chuck.
  • perfectfireperfectfire
    I bought some SKF about 2 weeks ago and am already up 18%. Thanks market ticker!

    I'm looking into some more target plays. Trying to figure out what bank/lender is most likely to go the way of CW in the next months.
  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    edited November 2007
    Well my friend, tomorrow might be your chance to short CFC. Nikkei just up 500 points in minutes to close when news of Citibank securing "investment" from the Arabs at the low low rate of "11%". :) Such "good news" would pop the market and financial stocks. You do know that we are just chatting right?

    My lawyer make me put this-> :lol:
    Disclaimer: Performance quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee futureresults. Investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate, so that an investor's shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance may be lower or higher than the performance quoted.
  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    All right guys, I hope you put your money where your post is and short some CFCs today or buy puts. I did add to my position. CFC hits $9 briefly, and closed in green. Guess what, this two piece of germs just came out after market.

    WFC pretty much being spared so far, not anymore.
    http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071127/wellsfar ... .html?.v=4

    And CFC press today said what happened at FRE has no effect on them, the heck it doesn't.
    http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071127/freddiem ... .html?.v=1

    Can you say booyah? or is it kaching!
  • casey1167casey1167
    AwaySooner (A/S), I think you should share the wealth. I mean really, please feel my pain.

    Unfortunately, I personally can not short, all I got is my 401(k), but I am hoping BEARX has more shorts in CFC then they did a few months ago.

    So A/S, in your opinion what is going to happen to CFC in the short, and long-term?

    Citibank got a deal with the Arabs 2.25% higher than the one CFC got with BAC I believe.

    If anyone wants a good laugh, watch Peter Schiff on youtube. The guy make all of you look like total Bulls on the market. Chick Little could learn a lesson from him....
  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    Oo wee, more news. The market would be sea of red tomorrow.
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071127/bs_nm/usa_fed_dc_1

    Sorry my friend, my portfolio is peanut size. Just trying to add to my down payment fund. Gives me a lot of pleasure profiting from all these greedy unethical mortgage companies, because of them, good family like myself can't get a house at a fair price. Yeah yeah I am the envious renter, I don't like to overpay anything, let alone a 30 years mortgage.
  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    Well well, Fed Vice Chairman hinted rate cut this morning and market rally. WFC up big after write off, isn't that nice? Show you this is like a giant casino, risky business it is.
  • Lake Hills RenterLake Hills Renter
    Some talking head on CNBC (I know...) yesterday said it was a "no brainer" that the Fed would lower the fed funds rates to 0% to fix the credit mess, and that we'd get a 50bp cut in Dec. When asked about inflation, he said it wasn't a problem because the Euro and Canadian Dollar would be inflating too because they are having the same problems. So we'd just be inflating against the currencies of emerging markets, which is no big deal.
  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    Well maybe the OPEC and the Chinese wouldn't like it so much huh? It might just push them to add other currency like yuan, yen and euros to their basket. Iran and Chavez would be jumping up and down in joy. The worse thing is, it wouldn't do a thing for the housing market, and now we have inflation problem on top of recession.

    Regardles of rate cut, what do they think going to happen to financial companies when Q4 earning report is out? Profit is not improving and they are piling on the debt. By the way, it has to be audited this time around (not that they can't still cook the book). Santa Claus is going to sucker punch a lot of bagholders after new year.
  • lamontlamont
    Lake Hills Renter wrote:
    Some talking head on CNBC (I know...) yesterday said it was a "no brainer" that the Fed would lower the fed funds rates to 0% to fix the credit mess, and that we'd get a 50bp cut in Dec. When asked about inflation, he said it wasn't a problem because the Euro and Canadian Dollar would be inflating too because they are having the same problems. So we'd just be inflating against the currencies of emerging markets, which is no big deal.

    The ECB has set inflation targets. It may be difficult for them to meet those targets if the US continues to massively devalue the dollar, but they will most likely resist devaluation until it becomes too economically painful, and the euro will still appreciate:

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/55ff8ca6-9d10 ... fd2ac.html
  • Lake Hills RenterLake Hills Renter
    Looks like the rate cut talk is definitely out there:

    Stocks Jump As Rate Cut Hopes Increase

    Wall Street barreled higher Wednesday, driving the Dow Jones industrials up more than 200 points for the second day in a row after a Federal Reserve official hinted that the central bank may lower interest rates again.

    The market was elated after Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn told the Council on Foreign Relations that recent financial turbulence has reversed some of the improvement seen in markets in previous weeks, and could squeeze credit for households and businesses. He said tight financial conditions may merit "offsetting" policy from the central bank.
  • casey1167casey1167
    Market goes up $331.01, or 2.55% and yet CFC goes down $.25 or 2.79%..... what is going to happen to CFC when the market starts going back down again?? I would say Mr. AwaySooner is going to take us all out to Prime Rib with all the money he is making on his shorts....
  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    I actually don't short anything, my portfolio is too small, I leverage with options. Unfortunately, I also own WM, GS, and WFC puts, it's not pretty today. Thank god most of them are Jan, April puts.
  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    The CFC saga continue, market is flat and CFC is up 0.42 as of now, simply because they paid BAC dividend. LOL. I didn't know making payment to loansharks in a death spiral financing is a good news. This game is rigged I tell you.
  • casey1167casey1167
    AwaySooner, the funny thing is, I thought I read that by not paying the dividend it would help CFC because it would make a buy out of CFC by BAC come about faster, thus increasing the value of the stock.... Go figure...

    Oh, but waite young Luke, the "Hope Now Alliance" is coming to the rescue... all is going to be saved.

    My bet is it will take all weekend to figure out exactly what the "Hope Now Alliance" is going to really do, and how freezing rates for "some" borrowers is going play out for the rest of the field....

    All of these "fixes" are just making more of a mess, which get us back to CFC...
  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    Casey, aren't you glad you didn't short CFC? 11.22 after bailout news today. By the way, I just added more Puts, I am doubling down. I don't get to go to Vegas anyway. Either way I can't afford a house. :)
  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    I shorted CFC so much I am going to need a bailout soon. My portfolio is red and I would like the brokerage to give them back to me. :) Today I add more to my position, double or nothing.
  • casey1167casey1167
    Back in the day, I shorted Snapple when Snapple was the rage.... it was hard to hold the short, as Snapple kept on going up for about a month, but five months into it, the stock dropped in half...

    Be patient AwaySooner... fundamentals will kick in sooner or later...

    The 9/30/07 quarterly income statement they have on Yahoo show that CFC lost $1,967,702,000 before income tax benefit. Funny thing is, all the news reports the loss AFTER income tax benefit... yes the income tax benifit is real, and they have enought taxes paid in over the last few years to realize the benifit (unlike GM) but the $1,967,702,000 number is the nut they are going to have to fix going forward.
  • casey1167casey1167
    http://countrywide-foreclosures.blogspo ... le-on.html

    They passed the three billion mark....

    Sort of a cool little chart. It is funny all the "nerd" and the "chicken little's" of the world are now thought to have a brain....
  • casey1167casey1167
    Well, CFC at 8.42 at the end of closing today.... I hope AwaySooner is covering those puts he was talking about on 11/30/07... back when CFC was at 11.22
  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    edited January 2008
    Back to report that I am all out on Friday. Sold a bunch of puts. I am all cash this weekend, as you can imagine, I can't stop smiling. :lol: I am going to take the wife and kid out for a nice dinner.

    Now if next week we bounce due to the 50 point cut and stimulus package talk, I'll jump in again, but it might get worse though. Lots of J6Ps are going to read the news this weekend and start calling their brokers. Either way, I am playing it safe. Money in the pocket they can't take it back. FED is the biggest market manipulator. Funny that Bush plan the talk before the job report is out, Kohn spoke in New Orleans, and FED increasing TAF for $60bil. All come out on the same day? Free market my ass.
  • perfectfireperfectfire
    Me too. Sold my profitable puts on CFC, C, DSL, JAVA, GYMB, DHI, and CROX. Hoping for a Monday bounce to get back in again.
  • casey1167casey1167
    Oh, if one could only time selling puts on CFC.... got below $7 today...

    BAC... CFC close the year at $8.94, so Bank of America will have to post a comprehensive loss on investment in CFC of over a billion dollars... (I believe the stock was convertable at $21)
  • AwaySoonerAwaySooner
    $5.47! I picked up a few puts for BK plays, I was late to the party and still make some money. :lol:
  • deejayohdeejayoh
    http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/id ... 3220080110

    news of the day not good for short positions. Trading at $7.55. we'll see how long this lasts
  • casey1167casey1167
    Deejayoh..... if BAC buys, then price doubles, if BAC pulls out, CFC drops off the market in weeks, not months.

    CFC is in the land were only inside traders are making smart plays on the stock.

    Given that today the trading volume has been around half the O/S shares, there are a lot of bets at the moment.
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