Boeing Will Save Us
Many of you fellow Bubbleheads have posted actual data about the 787 program which completely disproves the subjective 'Boeing Will Save Us' claim made by the perma-bulls.
I am sure many of you caught this article today. As you know, the Boeing 787 is largely an outsourced plane. The link below actually digs into how these local outsourcees are being paid. Don't think I could afford a home on that kind of salary.
I especially liked this gem:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/boeingaerospace/2004076057_787jobs16.html
I am sure many of you caught this article today. As you know, the Boeing 787 is largely an outsourced plane. The link below actually digs into how these local outsourcees are being paid. Don't think I could afford a home on that kind of salary.
I especially liked this gem:
That means more than four-fifths of the non-Boeing aerospace-production workers earned less than the average wage of all Washington workers in 2006, which according to the Employment Security Department was almost $43,000.
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/boeingaerospace/2004076057_787jobs16.html
Comments
Yup...
first it's "all the high paying jobs coming into Seattle will support house prices"
now it's...well...see above.
soon...it'll be...McDonalds to the rescue!
How many "investment" properties are you sitting on Markor?
Here's what's going to happen on the Eastside: Microsoft will add 3,000+ new employees there in the next year or two. Most will not make enough to afford a house, so they'll rent. That will put upward pressure on rents. If rents rise then there will be upward pressure on house prices. Prices could still fall, due to bubble popping, increased rental supply, etc. But a fall is less likely, and a rise more likely, with each new below-average-wage worker added in a given time period.
That's fair. Software makers never get pinched in times of recession. Shoot, I bet MSFT will hire nearly 1 million new employees in the next 3 years. Soon, the entire Puget Sound will be one massive MSFT plant. They will build a huge dome to house the company/population in, forever limiting housing growth. Median income will increase to $300,000, and a soda will cost $100.
Buy now, while you can!
Sodas are free at Microsoft. Duh! What are you, a bear?!
The room for 7,000 new employees isn't anecdotal. Nor is the fact that they have continuously increased staff in Puget Sound in the past. Futurists should get adept at reading between the lines. Microsoft would lose in salary negotiations if it was common knowledge that they're greatly adding to staff. With record earnings, a boost in the stock price, and most importantly an aging work force in a fast-moving industry, they have a huge incentive to expand the staff. Shareholders would probably be furious if they didn't.
I'm committed to the Eastside for the next 10 years as a homeowner; that's it. But I'm not trying to sell anyone. The Seattle area could be a wasteland in 10 years. I just think the opposite is more likely.
As to my source for the 7,000 number, the article I linked to says that the 1.3 million sq. ft. Bellevue expansion provides room for 4,000. Microsoft is also replacing 300,000 sq. ft. of space around 148th Ave NE & NE 40th with 1.3 million sq. ft. (That's the plan posted on the public sign nearby.) That's (4,000 + 4,000 - ((3 / 13) * 4,000)) = ~7,000.
I think you're underestimating the effect the MS contractors have on the local demand for housing. Employees may increase, but contractors get laid off in droves when the market slows.
Yay <light applause>, so now we are the soviets?
The American Revolution would be a better analogy to the MS/Google conflict.
Well, we are certainly getting our asses kicked. I'd say it's more like the Germans and the French in WWII
If any of you guys are in search, get back to work!!!
Nuts to that. From your own article, it's clear that MSFT has over twice the market share of Ask.com...oh, that was the point.
For what it's worth, MSFT doesn't appear (to my outsider knowledge) to even be competing with GOOG in other areas. YouTube, Orkut (which is a loser itself), online office apps (Google Docs), and the android phone all seem to be pursuits that MSFT isn't interested in. I guess they compete directly for web email (Gmail vs Hotmail), and maps, but off the top of my head that's all I got.
Actually, I hope MSFT does start competing directly in some of those other arenas with Google. It seems like Google has little focus and finds it difficult to move past beta phase on any of their products until Microsoft becomes a direct competitor. At that point, their product gets lots of focus and becomes lights out better.
YouTube vs. Soapbox
Orkut vs. Windows Live Spaces
Android vs. Windows Mobile
Google Docs vs. Office
etc.
They try. When they stick to their traditional strengths they do okay (OS and Office Suite), but outside of that MS seems to come up short more often than not.
Regardless the idea that MS is going to save the housing market is ridiculous. Without the stock options working for them, the base salaries just don't support the housing costs around here. The jobs they add will increase demand for housing, but without the easy credit that demand is going to be for houses that cost less than they currently do.
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That's exactly right. The best case is that jobs remain plentiful, builders keep building new houses, and that we don't enter a recession but experience slower growth (maybe in the 2% range). That's pretty much the best case over the next couple of years. However, with financing for housing becoming more and more restricted, it doesn't matter what people *want* to do.
The whole "it's just supply and demand" manta works for Wheat, and it works for Nintendo Wiis right now. But housing has at least three components:
-Supply
-Desire (formerly known as Demand)
-Money
Money just wasn't part of the equation in the last few years. If you found a house you liked, and you had the desire to buy it, you could get the money. Increasingly, it is *money* that is restricting things. A lot of people want to get out there and buy a house - they have the desire. But they find the bank won't lend them 700K any more. They will, however, lend them 500K or 600K (if they wait and save a bit more, perhaps) so that will set the prices.
Sorry I didn't even realize there was a Soapbox. Is it even in the top 5 for video sharing sites?
Windows Live Spaces I thought was just a home page for an MSN account. I didn't think it was even attempting to compete with myspace/facebook (of which Orkut is a poor competitor).
You've actually got me with Windows Mobile, which is a more mature product.
I do not consider Google Docs and Office to be competitors, but I guess that's kind of a semantics thing. Yes, Google Docs would like to take users from Office, but it provides a drastically different service than Office does.