Case Shiller for November will be out tomorrow
Last Tuesday of the month.
this one could be interesting. Last month figures were:
YoY = +3.3%
MoM = -0.9%
I've taken a look at it from two angles:
1) Inventory-driven approach: same as I've been using in the past. My model shows
YoY = +2.7%
MoM = -0.5%
2) Extension of current trend. The numbers above felt a little conservative to me, so as a check - I did a simple extension of the current trend of YoY rates - based on a polynomial equation fit to the line for the past year. That approach shows:
YoY = +1.7%
MoM = -1.5%
I expect we'll come in closer to the second set of numbers.
Any other guesses?
this one could be interesting. Last month figures were:
YoY = +3.3%
MoM = -0.9%
I've taken a look at it from two angles:
1) Inventory-driven approach: same as I've been using in the past. My model shows
YoY = +2.7%
MoM = -0.5%
2) Extension of current trend. The numbers above felt a little conservative to me, so as a check - I did a simple extension of the current trend of YoY rates - based on a polynomial equation fit to the line for the past year. That approach shows:
YoY = +1.7%
MoM = -1.5%
I expect we'll come in closer to the second set of numbers.
Any other guesses?
Comments
YOY +1%
MOM -2%
And I'll lean towards the first estimate assuming that variations in the current trend are noise in the first model.
they show 10/31 - 11/26 (last day avail) 28-day moving average for Seattle as +0.23% - basically flat for the November data they have released thus far.
could be surprisingly positive.
-1.4% mom, +1.8% yoy, good guessing. 2.68% off our July peak.
Every market showed exacerbated MOM declines from oct/nov than from sept/oct. Amazing.
Seattle, Portland (+1.3%) and Charlotte (+2.9) are still all hanging on to positive yoy.
September 1990 68.13 -0.7%
October 1990 67.59 -0.8%
November 1990 66.88 -1.1%
December 1990 66.38 -0.7%
January 1991 65.53 -1.3%
February 1991 64.60 -1.4%
March 1991 64.47 -0.2%
Who is to say what comes next, but considering that this data is from November and that there's a lot of winter (slow season) between November and Spring, I'm expecting that we'll see some more similar MOM declines for the next few months, at least.
If the Seattle C-S index has the same 1.43% MOM decline over the next six reports then we'll be negative YOY in January and -10% YOY in May, a month in which we'd also hit -2YOY. This of course assumes that the rate of deprecation will not keep increasing as it has over the last 4 reports. Hard to say though if that little blip we had in interest rates will moderate that somewhat for Jan/Feb.
The 'you are now underwater' honor is now bestowed upon any Seattle area home buyer who purchased since April 2007.
And actually, it's now the record MOM decline, 1.43%, jan-feb 91 was 1.42%.
Good point. Which headline do you think we'll see?
-Seattle house prices still going up!
-Seattle experiences biggest monthly drop in house price since records began!
Both are true, in their own twisted way. YOY is still up, and the records only go back 17 years or so.
I'd be careful with that sort of statement. Keep in mind that when Shiller uses "Seattle" in his index it actually includes all of King, Pierce and Snohomish counties. Surely you are not going to argue that every single person who has purchased in these 3 counties since April 2007 is underwater, are you?
I'm sure there are plenty of cities and neighboorhoods that have fared quite well since April 2007. My guess is that it's mainly Pierce and Snohomish counties that are dragging the "Seattle" numbers down.
My gut wants to agree with you, but the median King County price is -10% down from July. Sure, we all know that median price is a bit whacky, but still, it does seem like King County is having a bad time of it too.
I agree that things aren't all rosy in KC but it is important to remember that King county includes Auburn in the South all the way up to Bothell in the North, from the Puget Sound on the West to the Snoqualmie Pass area to the East. All I'm saying is that there's a lot of land in KC and I still don't think that close-in areas like Seattle/Bellevue/Redmond/Kirkland are doing all that bad. I think it's mainly the outlying areas that are getting hit the hardest.
That said, I remember Deejayoh doing an analysis of the correlation between C/S and median prices and showed how close the relationship was. However, I can't remember if he looked at just KC median or if he looked at the 3-county median. Deejayoh, maybe you can clarify this for me if you know off-hand...
Mon_YoY___MoM
Dec 0.6% -1.18%
Jan -0.9% -1.51%
Every city in the country has falling prices. We are no different, and nothing is changing this month. Interest rates are low - but inventory is still rising.
Case Shiller is based on closed sales for a 90 day average - so Oct-Dec = "November"
Closed sales for Oct/Nov/Dec/total (SFH only)
King 1659 /1525 /1340 /4524
Snoh 692 /659 /570 /1921
Pierce 753 /696 /617 /2066
Kingco =53% of sales
"draggee", or "dragger"?
Actually, you're a bit off on this. From page 6 of their methodology: "The index point for each reporting month is based on sales pairs found for that month and the preceeding 2 months. For example, the December 2005 index point is based on repeat sales data for October, November and December of 2005"
good clarification. you are welcome to rerun the numbers. I believe my point still stands.
but back up quite a bit from what they were doing for the last couple weeks.
I've been following a zip code with a mix of high, medium and low end housing for a 3 months now. There are a lot of listings right now with prices similar to what the place sold for in 2005-2007. A good number of short sales too. I could make my spreadsheet available if we could attach files in case anyone is interested.