January Foreclosures
The month isn't quite over, but I am posting the numbers so far are impressive.
This is a count of "Notice of Trustee Sales" in January of 2007 and January 2008. This is the document that is filed when a lender is foreclosing on a property. It gives a three month notice of the public auction for a property. Not all of these properties will go to auction -- many will be sold or caught up before the auction. Also, not all of these notices are for foreclosure. Apparently, there are situations where the property of a deceased person goes through this process. Still, this number is a good metric of people who have gotten into trouble with their property.
1/1/8 - 1/29/8: 404
1/1/7 - 1/29/7: 257
1/1/7 - 1/31/7: 264
Taking just the notices up to today and comparing them to the entire month last year, these foreclosure notices are up a staggering 53%.
This is a count of "Notice of Trustee Sales" in January of 2007 and January 2008. This is the document that is filed when a lender is foreclosing on a property. It gives a three month notice of the public auction for a property. Not all of these properties will go to auction -- many will be sold or caught up before the auction. Also, not all of these notices are for foreclosure. Apparently, there are situations where the property of a deceased person goes through this process. Still, this number is a good metric of people who have gotten into trouble with their property.
1/1/8 - 1/29/8: 404
1/1/7 - 1/29/7: 257
1/1/7 - 1/31/7: 264
Taking just the notices up to today and comparing them to the entire month last year, these foreclosure notices are up a staggering 53%.
Comments
http://www.metrokc.gov/recelec/records/
Here's where foreclosures are at now.
http://www.bizjournals.com/triad/stories/2008/01/28/daily13.html
2.2 million foreclosures last year! There are some 100 million households in America, but there are even fewer home owning households. This makes it clear that more than 2% of homes went through foreclosure just last year. Yowsers!
There are about 70 million owner-occupied homes. About 51 million have mortgages. So more than 4% of those were foreclosed on in 2007, and 2008 is certain to be worse.
The homeownership rate is back down to 2001 levels. So much for "innovation" helping us become an "ownership society".
My guess we will continue to plummet, and may end up close to 63%, back where we were in the early 90s, or maybe lower.
If prices decline by 30%, as Krugman and some of the IBs are forecasting, among all those homeowners with a mortgage they will, on average, have no equity in their homes. None.
Where does the "ownership rate" go then? The only ones really owning their homes will be the ones with no mortgage. 20%.
http://realestate.msn.com/Buying/Article2.aspx?cp-documentid=6119868
According to these charts, even the worst states saw less than 4% of their homes in foreclosure in 2007. So I'm a little confused. It seems like someone has the wrong numbers, or else things are being counted in odd ways.
Maybe the 2.2 million is total homes in foreclosure, but maybe for the states ranked chart, they treated second (or third or fifth) homes differently.
+62% YOY
Last Friday was the first of February. On Friday, 42 NTS were recorded.
On 2/1/2007, 12 NTS were recorded.
That starts February out at +350% YOY.
Historically, more NTS are recorded on Friday than any other day of the week. This February has fiveFridays. That only happens once every 28 years. I expect February's numbers to be skewed a little bit.