The Seattle Job Market Myth

We are frequently told how Seattle is adding so many jobs and population. This is hardly a scientific report, but WA state doesn't even make the top 15. The list only goes to 15 by the way.

Comments

  • But everyone works at microsoft or boeing!!! heh :?
  • Meanwhile, Microsoft recently signed on for another 500K sq. ft. of leased space in Bellevue. By 2010 or so they'll be using 1.8 million more sq. ft. than they are now, just on the Eastside. Room for 10K new employees, but staff is so crammed in now they surely won't hire anyone, shareholders be damned.
  • I know, I know MSFT! MSFT! MSFT!!!

    Look at this list for a second though.

    1. South Dakota
    2. Idaho
    3. Wyoming
    4. Nebraska
    5. Utah
    6. Hawaii
    7. North Dakota
    8. Virginia
    9. Montana
    10. New Hampshire
    11. New Mexico
    12. Delaware
    13. Maryland
    14. Iowa
    15. Vermont

    There's nary a CA, FL, NY, WA, MA, AZ, et all on the list. This is simply a ranking of unemployment rates by state. Well, Seattle has a higher unemployment rate than every state on this list, including both Dakotas, Idaho, Montana, and Nebraska. These are hardly bastions for overpriced real estate. Mostly they aren't even coastal states at all.
  • There's nary a CA, FL, NY, WA, MA, AZ, et all on the list. This is simply a ranking of unemployment rates by state. Well, Seattle has a higher unemployment rate than every state on this list, including both Dakotas, Idaho, Montana, and Nebraska. These are hardly bastions for overpriced real estate. Mostly they aren't even coastal states at all.
    That's a little misleading. Idaho, for example, is a heavily dumbass state (a certain political party). They'll jump to do hard labor for $10/hr. They even voted themselves a "right to work" state so the unions got weakened or dissolved, lowering wages and bringing in loads of new federal minimum wage jobs. By contrast people in King County will stay unemployed until someone pays them the $40+/hr they need to make a decent living here.

    Also, Boise houses are expensive for what you get. They had a big housing bubble there too.
  • Interesting discussion, not sure of it's relevance to home prices. in 2006, the Seattle MSA finally got back to the employment level of 2000. So there was basically no net job creation for 6 years. Yet in the same time frame, home prices rose 72%. The same trend held nation-wide.

    It seems pretty clear to me - based on data - that job growth has been a non-factor in driving real estate prices for the whole of the boom. Why anyone thinks we can count on it now to sustain current price levels is beyond me.
    jobsvhomepricescz9.png
  • deejayoh wrote:
    It seems pretty clear to me - based on data - that job growth has been a non-factor in driving real estate prices for the whole of the boom. Why anyone thinks we can count on it now to sustain current price levels is beyond me.

    But, but...didn't you notice that Markor was making fun of...wait, which political party was he making fun of.
    Markor wrote:
    That's a little misleading. Idaho, for example, is a heavily dumbass state (a certain political party).

    But I thought Idaho usually voted republican. The donkey symbolizes a blue vote. You've got a mixed metaphor (insult?) there and I just can't abide by it.

    Anyways, back to handling this deejayoh character. You're graph is nice and all, but does it show just how hard the people around here work? I think Markor said it best.
    Markor wrote:
    They'll jump to do hard labor for $10/hr.

    See, people in Idaho work hard. Say, was that, have you? Your dissing people for working hard? Oh, no I got it now, it's a sideways slap in the face of Seattlites who won't work at all for less than $40 an hour, and won't hardly work even then. Markor proves again that lazy societies produce higher housing costs.

    And just in case you still think that no statistical correlation between two events supports the argument that they are not 100% causal, well Markor explained it to me this way.
    Markor wrote:
    Also, Boise houses are expensive for what you get.

    That's right. Look at the total junk they are trying to hock in the heart of Boise. Come on! A 1532 sq ft SFH in Boise proper for $154,000. Compared to that, houses are cheap for what you get in Seattle. I mean, compare that total rip off to this gem in Des Moines just a 45 minute drive from the employment centers in Seattle and Redmond. At a thrifty $153,950, you save $50 compared to living in Boise.
  • Look at the total junk they are trying to hock in the heart of Boise. Come on! A 1532 sq ft SFH in Boise proper for $154,000.
    Good example, I was a few blocks from there recently. It's a decent location.

    Yeah, that house looks cheap until you consider everything, esp. the relatively crappy wages and job choices. At that price I'd still choose the Seattle area. If you paid cash for the house there, so you could survive on $12/hr, then it might be a better deal; lots of Californians and others thought so too, until the bubble started deflating.
  • The highest state on the list with plunging RE prices is... Virginia!

    Prices in Fairfax County have dropped so dramatically that we're now at the same level as Seattle. (gasp)

    I can't complain. Prices in my neighborhood were at the $500K level a year and a half ago. Today? The house across the street is listed at $375K. On noes. We'z be ghetto now. I don't see a bottom until we hit $275K.

    (median income for this zip code is $110K/yr)
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