Potential Hou->Redmond move
I realize I'd be moving backwards from a housing market prospective. I'm 26 and was looking at buying a house in Houston. I could get a decent 3bdrm for $120k and rent out a room or two to friends for $400/mo and come out ahead of renting even in the short term. However, I grew up in the Northeast and Houston is just way to hot and flat for me. I'm looking at jobs on the West Coast and in Colorado. I have an interview in Redmond next week.
However, real estate in the Seattle area is really discouraging, as everyone on here knows. If I like Seattle, which I think I would if I can handle the rain in the winter, I'd like to buy within a few years. I'm sick of bouncing around renting rooms for $400/mo until the roommate gets married and kicks me out. There's never enough space and I have to move every couple years. However, continuing to do that in Seattle would still be the best way to ride out the bubble.
1. Most people on here don't think homes in the Redmond area will hold value. Is there anyone that does? For example, I think Houston will hold value because of the booming oil industry and because it's so cheap to begin with. My impression of Seattle is a strong economy and very limited land for expansion. That may prop up housing prices for a longer period of time.
2. Are there any decent suburbs to the east of Redmond that are undervalued (relatively speaking)?
3. Given what I see as a delay in Seattle's decline in housing prices, how long do you think it will take the market to bottom out there? Do you think after Southern California bottoms out Seattle will continue to decline because it seems to have taken longer to start declining?
4. How much do you think Seattle is overvalued? I would never buy if my future home was suddenly worth half of what I paid. I might be willing to buy if the risk of loss was low.
Is there anyone from Houston on here? Are you happy you moved from a lifestyle perspective (not a career one)? If I devoted $300k down here, I could live in a mansion, or just take the extra money and travel the world and take vacations to the north in the summer to avoid the Houston heat and hike in the mountains. I mean, I'm too cheap to do that, but I "could" and still come out ahead.
Prices really are making me consider just settling in Houston. I'm a numbers guy and something tells me if I move to Seattle, I'd never buy a house (which I want to do) because it's always going better to just rent a room from someone and invest the difference.
For completeness sake, I'm 26, I have 100k in liquidable assets (say I'm willing to devote 30k to a down payment because I'm not selling many stocks when it's bottoming out), I make about 70k and am interviewing for a position in Seattle that pays somewhere in the 75k-90k range.
Sigh, why can't there be a nice area that's also cheap and has a good economy!
However, real estate in the Seattle area is really discouraging, as everyone on here knows. If I like Seattle, which I think I would if I can handle the rain in the winter, I'd like to buy within a few years. I'm sick of bouncing around renting rooms for $400/mo until the roommate gets married and kicks me out. There's never enough space and I have to move every couple years. However, continuing to do that in Seattle would still be the best way to ride out the bubble.
1. Most people on here don't think homes in the Redmond area will hold value. Is there anyone that does? For example, I think Houston will hold value because of the booming oil industry and because it's so cheap to begin with. My impression of Seattle is a strong economy and very limited land for expansion. That may prop up housing prices for a longer period of time.
2. Are there any decent suburbs to the east of Redmond that are undervalued (relatively speaking)?
3. Given what I see as a delay in Seattle's decline in housing prices, how long do you think it will take the market to bottom out there? Do you think after Southern California bottoms out Seattle will continue to decline because it seems to have taken longer to start declining?
4. How much do you think Seattle is overvalued? I would never buy if my future home was suddenly worth half of what I paid. I might be willing to buy if the risk of loss was low.
Is there anyone from Houston on here? Are you happy you moved from a lifestyle perspective (not a career one)? If I devoted $300k down here, I could live in a mansion, or just take the extra money and travel the world and take vacations to the north in the summer to avoid the Houston heat and hike in the mountains. I mean, I'm too cheap to do that, but I "could" and still come out ahead.
Prices really are making me consider just settling in Houston. I'm a numbers guy and something tells me if I move to Seattle, I'd never buy a house (which I want to do) because it's always going better to just rent a room from someone and invest the difference.
For completeness sake, I'm 26, I have 100k in liquidable assets (say I'm willing to devote 30k to a down payment because I'm not selling many stocks when it's bottoming out), I make about 70k and am interviewing for a position in Seattle that pays somewhere in the 75k-90k range.
Sigh, why can't there be a nice area that's also cheap and has a good economy!
Comments
I spent 3 years in Houston as a kid, it was way too hot and flat for me as well, Seattle is very very different. I was raised in very sunny areas (LA, Houston, and eastern Washington) and moving to Seattle has been very difficult for me. The rain and overcast skies is very hard to take for me since I am used to sunny skies. The people out here are very different and seem to live in almost an idealistic fairy tale world.
Personally, I am looking to leave Seattle in the next year or two. If I stay in the U.S. I will probably be moving to Denver or to the east coast (HQ is in the DC metro area), otherwise I am looking for a possible overseas assignment.
I spend a lot of time in Denver for work (will be spending a couple weeks there this month) and really like it. I prefer snow and cold and sun vs. overcast and rain. I will say that the summer time in Seattle is hard to beat. It just doesn't last long. If the housing market here was more affordable, I would probably have to rethink moving. However, I don't believe that this city has anything worth paying a premium for.
I've read cheerleaders saying we've hit bottom and that now is a great time to buy, or that we're going to see 60%+ declines. Me, I think we have not hit bottom, but we may see the biggest declines in the next few months, then a slow downward drag til summer of 2009, then flatness for a couple of years after that.
You know, you could move out here and rent a house for far less than the cost of a mortgage, and just look around at houses..There are areas that will hold value better than others, but that too is subject to debate. East of Redmond is pretty but not at all cheap...I'd say off the top of my head that neighborhoods that are a fairly short drive to either Bellevue or Seattle and have less expensive house prices now will fare better, but who knows? Like Tukwila and the West Hill of Renton.
I am originally from the Houston area. I initially moved here for work, but have been looking about getting back down there. Salaries are on par with what they are here. Don't buy the bullcrap that it's a pay cut to move south. I received an offer with a firm last April for around 20% over what I make now for basically the same job, unfortunately, other issues prevented me from doing this. I would do this now if I found the right opportunity and I could sell my house. I should be able to get almost double what I paid for it 5 years ago, right Realtors? For 300K, I can get a REAL mansion with a pool. Yes, it does get hot there, but I'll take sun over dreariness any day. Hell, it gets hot almost everywhere but here. Property taxes are quite high (almost double than here), but I'd rather put my kids in public school down there than up here.
I like my job right now. I'm strictly looking at moving because I want to make more money and live somewhere "nice". However, if all the income goes to a higher mortgage payment on a small house, maybe it's not worthwhile.
Also, as discussed, if the rain grates on me I'd be very disappointed with the move. I like being outside and playing sports a lot and if leagues are cancelled for the winter I might get bored and not be happy. On the other hand, I'm assuming the mountains are very pretty and there's lots of hiking (and outdoorsy girls
Maybe CO is more my speed, like Matthew. I just haven't had any bites on jobs yet
Anyone ever been to Mountain View CA? If I take a job with Microsoft, in theory I could transfer there someday.
Seattle seems to be lined with these crappy craftsman POSs.
David is correct, salaries in Houston are almost identical as Seattle (I believe they are actually higher in Houston), but yet houses cost half as much and are much higher quality. Again, its a trade off... You are basically living in an extremely hot and humid climate that is nearly unbearable from June, July, and August. But in my mind, the only time that is even slightly desirable to live in Seattle is the same time period.
The summers in Seattle are hit and miss. When you get them, they can be kick ass. When they suck, like this past summer (non-existent) it makes you want to get the f*** out of town and head to Hawaii. Nothing like having to wear sweaters or run the furnace on Memorial Day that can make an individual just go f-ing batty.
Regarding the Mountain View question, it's the Valley, so home prices are even more insane than they are in Seattle. Then again, you're a few miles away for a true world class city, so you're paying a premium. Traffic f-ing sux 2.
OMG, if you think real estate is overpriced in Seattle, just take a peak at what 500K will get you in Mountain View (small, old condos); then look at what $1M will get you and you'll really be in for a shock (a "regular" house). Google is based in Mountain View, which has really driven prices up. The schools here are really hit or miss, so houses in the good school districts cost a lot more. Rents for apartments have been going up. There are a lot of cr@ppy apartment blocks in Mountain View (and a few trailer courts!), and crime is on the high side.
But if you want perfect weather year round (not too hot in summer, not too cold in winter and very little rain or clouds) great access to high tech jobs, be within 45min of San Francisco, 4 hrs to Tahoe and 1.5 hrs to Napa, and 1.5 hrs of Monterey/Carmel, then move to Mountain View. Just expect to pay for it.
You can get used to the rain and overcast, but most don't ever like it. I've lived half my life in the desert. Hated the overcast for the first year I lived in the Seattle area. Now I prefer it, and get a little cranky in the summer. When I retire I want to move to someplace that gets rain more often.
You're right about the hiking; it's excellent here. I think it's even better in the Sierras in CA, but you're a lot further away from the mountains if you work in the San Fran area.
The other thing is, Microsoft has implied they'd pay for an MBA. My current employer does not until you're well into management already.
As for spending a weekend. I'm taking vacation time Thursday-Tuesday to see the city and go hiking (skiing if it's still open?) with a few friends who live there. We'll see how I like it when I interview! Luckily the weather looks overcast and rainy (so it should be fairly representative). Of course, this all might be a moot point if I don't get an offer. Otherwise, I'll just buy a house in Houston and take a month off each summer to visit friends who live in more hospitable climates (while pinging for job offers in Colorado, CA or the northeast).
Not here you won't! The roads here get icy in the snow, and the people who don't know how to drive in it make life miserable for the others. Typically it will snow a few days a year here. When it happens during a workday, I usually stay in the office until 10 PM and then snake my way home past all the parked cars (people who gave up).
As you should anywhere, make sure it's in writing.
I've heard great stuff about the Boulder, CO area. Since you're a numbers guy, maybe you can make a spreadsheet to better assess what your standard of living in each place would be, considering what you like the best (e.g. hiking, access to the ocean, etc.) and the wage you think you could get. You might consider smaller places like Boise ID or Bozeman MT, where a small wage can go further (at least after the housing bubble fully pops). I'd also consider the access by plane to other places you like. For example, Seattle is convenient to Hawaii and San Francisco but not Miami. A friend of mine chose Las Vegas in large part because it's a non-stop flight to many places he likes (even Hawaii), and it's convenient to excellent Southern Utah hiking. Include state taxes & sales taxes into the equation.
It was a real adjustment for me to even consider buying here, coming from Richland where homes were 50-70% less expensive than in Redmond at that time. I was lucky and bought a POS fixer that I could afford (and is costing me less than rent would today, so I'm stuck here
And forget about moving out to the boonies thinking you're going to get a better deal. My wife works in Carnation and I work in Monroe, so we know the outer Eastside areas pretty well. There are new housing developments outside Monroe (5-15 minute drive just to get into Monroe) where the houses START at $500K!!! :shock: You can go farther east, say to Sultan, before prices get somewhat reasonable, BUT then you have the two-lane county road commute from hell every day (I see the poor suckers sitting there 2x/day as I am reverse-commuting from Redmond, and my wife sees the same on her commute).
Even if I did have the means to do so, I don't think I would buy right now--I'd search long and hard for a good landlord (somebody not in financial dire straits who values a long-term tenant that will take good care of their property) and hunker down while prices correct.
When I first was going to Houston I got excited about the heat and humidity (I get cold easily and I have really really dry skin and a bad cough in the winter that's exacerbated by dry air). After living in Houston during the summer I found that the humidity was fine, but there is such a thing as too hot. Nobody ever goes outside there during the summer which is just sad. It seems that all they do there is go out to eat and shop.
Conversely when Microsoft flew my wife and I out to Seattle for the weekend, it was unusually cold (an apartment complex we visited had paint peeling off the doors because it had gotten so cold at night) and yet as we drove by the Kirkland waterfront there were lots of people out and about. The Seattle area seems so much more alive than the Houston area. Plus we decided we would rather have crappy winters and nice summers instead of crappy summers and nice winters.
The Bay Area has really really really nice weather. Really nice. It's also really well located. Close to the coast and mountains and big cities. But that's about it. Housing is expensive, food is expensive, state income tax is high.
My in-laws live in Denver and it's really nothing special. Many people claim they get 300 days of sunshine a year, but that's the same amount that San Jose gets and I'm certain the weather isn't as good in Denver. It's super dry there too. Actually the first time I went to Denver I expected it to look like here in the Pacific Northwest, but instead it just looks (and feels) like Utah. Except the mountains are on the other side.
I think prices will fall about 50% here, but it'll still be way more expensive than Houston. IMO you get what you pay for though.
What really sold me was the Microsoft gym, as it alleviated concerns about meeting people and finding athletics in the winter, since something tells me that ultimate frisbee and soccer in a constant rain would be less than fun.
I was in town Thursday night through Tuesday early afternoon. I loved it. It smelled so fresh, I got to see snow for the first time since I went home for Christmas on top of Mt. Si. We had a clear day that we could see Ranier from there as well. I got to go skiing for the first time in years, and I gave myself a quick tour of Seattle and visited some old friends.
Barring the bubble, I can't see how anyone would want to leave there. It's even prettier than Denver. It's nice having tree-covered mountains instead of just rocky ones. I was really looking forward to the move, except we had two consecutive nice nights in Houston so I'm slightly second-guessing mysefl, but that's just me being nervous about telling my boss!
Now I want to see the Boulder, CO area and compare. C'mon, they gotta have lots of trees there!
The winters here are pretty rough.
Denver is only pretty if you're comparing it to Houston.
That's a great idea, although only really feasible if you leave work reasonably early and live out that way. Which trails do you do up there, BTW? I'm a fan of snow lake myself...
One of the things I like to do on the long summer evenings is to head out to Rattlesnake Ledge after work and have a mini-picnic at the top. It only takes an hour or so to get to the top, it's a great work-out, and the views are pretty nice too! Exit 32, I think. Biking up to the old Snoqualmie tunnel is another summer favorite of mine too. But that's not so much of an after work thing...
I've lived in a few different places in the world, and WA really is the best place in the world I've lived, in *summer*!
I look forward to hearing your opinion again this time next year. I think most people would agree that the climate from April to October is pretty good. It's the other half of the year that many people find disagreeable.
I used to find the winters depressing, but now I love it. If I could bottle that mind flip I'd make a mint!
Normally I would agree (though frisbees can hurt when you catch them in the snow), but my concern is finding people to play with in Redmond. In Houston, it's easy to find people after work because it's still hot out.
I'm not too worried about the depressing winters as I grew up in Buffalo (more cloudy, less rainy), just finding stuff to do outside. I'm also worried about cycling because the hills were steeper than I expected. I'm going to have to upgrade my $80 Huffy.
As for Boulder, Boulder was quite nice from what I remember. There were hot hiker-girls everywhere, but that's to be expected in a college town. The same is probably true at random schools in WA. I'd probably get sick of looking at Aspens faster than evergreens though.
I wish the string of nice days in Houston would stop though. I can't believe I'm encouraging an early hot and humid summer, but it would make me stop second guessing myself!
It'd be pretty hard to leave the JPL area, which is arguably better than Seattle. Of course, civil servants out there deserve a higher salary than they get (not saying you were a civil servant, just an observation).