This thread has gone completely off base. The original question was 'is this the bottom?'
As such, I expected it to be a weekly reminder thread (like craigslist stats and their ilk). Each week, someone would add a brief post specifying whether or not we've hit the bottom. This would be a great resource, because anyone looking to buy could just check this thread to know if it's time.
Things are deteriorating more quickly. The water is very murky and I can't see the bottom, but we're heading there. I'd say at least another year before we hit bottom, and then we may linger at the bottom for a while, 'sleepin with the fishes.
I am putting my house on the market, and so I studied this comps this weekend.
Even my pessimistic arse can't keep up with how far and fast this market is falling. My "price well below the market and get it sold" price that I thought would be low is now unrealistically high. I estimate Snoreline has declined 15% since last summer, and my house is losing a $1000 dollars of value a week. Motivation to stay up all night painting last night.
I can feel the temptation to chase the market as my house moves from a decent 4-year profit to a pretty clear loss, taking costs into consideration.
So the biggest 4 year Seattle house appreciation boom just plain wasn't.
Except for Ballard of course. Where's our Meshugy? I miss him.
Except for Ballard of course. Where's our Meshugy? I miss him.
I was in his neighborhood a few weeks ago, and considered leaving a Seattle Bubble business card in his door with a special "we miss you" note written on the back. Didn't follow through though :^)
Even my pessimistic arse can't keep up with how far and fast this market is falling. My "price well below the market and get it sold" price that I thought would be low is now unrealistically high. I estimate Snoreline has declined 15% since last summer, and my house is losing a $1000 dollars of value a week. Motivation to stay up all night painting last night.
I can feel the temptation to chase the market as my house moves from a decent 4-year profit to a pretty clear loss, taking costs into consideration.
So the biggest 4 year Seattle house appreciation boom just plain wasn't.
Thanks for the honest assessment. It's rare to see, and even rarer from someone who's pan is in the fire.
If you sell now you can still effectively make a mint if prices fall another 20%. Plus you'll have the advantage of knowing the odds of that happening are high. At the peak, this was still debatable; even if you know there's a bubble, you don't know when it will peak, and since the inflation of bubbles seems to accelerate toward the peak, it's risky to not be a homedebtor at the peak. Your reward/risk ratio for selling may well be the highest after the peak, and when it is apparent that the peak has passed.
I had an offer on my house near the peak, but it fell through. Had it not I would almost certainly have bought another house (I was relocating in the area, but also wary of the bubble), and probably would have lost more money over time than having sold earlier this year and renting for a spell. Of course time will tell.
My advice: make your house squeaky clean and price it in the bottom 25% of comps. If it doesn't sell after 3 weeks or 20+ buyers have seen it, lower the price by 3-5%; repeat.
If the house suits you fine, if you can make the payment without financial hardship, then why sell?
Is everyone just trying to chase some appreciation train?
Live in it, love it, and enjoy it.
I'm selling because my house is too bloody small. I'm in a nice situation where I can sit back and watch the market for a year or so, mortgage and rent-free. Hunt for the right house, and buy with around 50% down, depending on what this one goes for.
Why wouldn't I sell in this situation?
I think your advice is good, Markor. I've got it looking pretty shiny and almost ready to list. I'm still debating how much to stage, and where to price it. There aren't really any legit comps, as it's pretty unique, but I'll list it towards the low end, and slash 5% more if it doesn't sell in 2 weeks, I think.
Hey! I'm the one posting every week whether or not this is the bottom. My post last Sunday made it clear that it was not yet the bottom. You'll just have to wait a couple days to find out where we stand now.
Looking at the MLS price history, it appears as though this house has gone STI and pending a total of six different times since it first went on the market. There are no posted photographs of the outside of the house, but barring it being hideous or about to slide into the sound, a nearly 2500 foot house on Puget Sound for 550,000 dollars doesn't seem too high.
Looking at the MLS price history, it appears as though this house has gone STI and pending a total of six different times since it first went on the market. There are no posted photographs of the outside of the house, but barring it being hideous or about to slide into the sound, a nearly 2500 foot house on Puget Sound for 550,000 dollars doesn't seem too high.
Where can I see the MLS price history of a house? Or is it not for us mere mortals?
While Redfin gives an incomplete price history, I think you might have to be an NWMLS subscriber or member ( agent, broker, appraiser, etc.) to have that info readily available.
But I'm always happy to share my toys. I'm there daily anyway, I've got no problem at all looking up something extra...just let me know.
As a character witness for RCC, I can say with all sincerity that RCC predicted MANY times we are not at the bottom. I don't even know who Ardell is.....and I read these boards daily.
Just trying to give credit (if you can still find it ) where it is due....
Thanks for the vote of confidence Moose. And I will continue to predict 'not-bottoms' so long as it is 100% obvious. Which I expect to be true for a while still.
Comments
Did you buy it Alan?
By the way, I win!
As such, I expected it to be a weekly reminder thread (like craigslist stats and their ilk). Each week, someone would add a brief post specifying whether or not we've hit the bottom. This would be a great resource, because anyone looking to buy could just check this thread to know if it's time.
I am putting my house on the market, and so I studied this comps this weekend.
Even my pessimistic arse can't keep up with how far and fast this market is falling. My "price well below the market and get it sold" price that I thought would be low is now unrealistically high. I estimate Snoreline has declined 15% since last summer, and my house is losing a $1000 dollars of value a week. Motivation to stay up all night painting last night.
I can feel the temptation to chase the market as my house moves from a decent 4-year profit to a pretty clear loss, taking costs into consideration.
So the biggest 4 year Seattle house appreciation boom just plain wasn't.
Except for Ballard of course. Where's our Meshugy? I miss him.
Thanks for the honest assessment. It's rare to see, and even rarer from someone who's pan is in the fire.
I'll keep you updated.
I had an offer on my house near the peak, but it fell through. Had it not I would almost certainly have bought another house (I was relocating in the area, but also wary of the bubble), and probably would have lost more money over time than having sold earlier this year and renting for a spell. Of course time will tell.
My advice: make your house squeaky clean and price it in the bottom 25% of comps. If it doesn't sell after 3 weeks or 20+ buyers have seen it, lower the price by 3-5%; repeat.
Is everyone just trying to chase some appreciation train?
Live in it, love it, and enjoy it.
More like it's money on the table that is soon to vanish.
I'm enjoying the rental house more than the house I owned!
Why wouldn't I sell in this situation?
I think your advice is good, Markor. I've got it looking pretty shiny and almost ready to list. I'm still debating how much to stage, and where to price it. There aren't really any legit comps, as it's pretty unique, but I'll list it towards the low end, and slash 5% more if it doesn't sell in 2 weeks, I think.
Ardell's right. We are far from the bottom.
Hey! I'm the one posting every week whether or not this is the bottom. My post last Sunday made it clear that it was not yet the bottom. You'll just have to wait a couple days to find out where we stand now.
Over 1000 days on Redfin.
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/print ... -id=132017
http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/print ... id=1667087
15210 SE 178th St
Renton, WA 98058
Last Sale: $339,950 (11/30/2006)
Asking $249,950
(And what is with the $50 discount from $250k? Do people still fall for that?)
Think this is more of a short sale but I can see the lack of value period:
Split Entry
Corner lot
1500 Sq Ft.
80% of the Courthouse Steps foreclosures I see are 1000-1600 sq ft.
Where can I see the MLS price history of a house? Or is it not for us mere mortals?
But I'm always happy to share my toys. I'm there daily anyway, I've got no problem at all looking up something extra...just let me know.
As a character witness for RCC, I can say with all sincerity that RCC predicted MANY times we are not at the bottom. I don't even know who Ardell is.....and I read these boards daily.
Just trying to give credit (if you can still find it