jon
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There is also the matter that a surprise for some people is not for another. Greenspan said he was surprised to find out that sub-prime had grown to 20% of the market. People might hear anecdotal evidence of bad loans, but until someone assembles co…
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You probably won't be able to time the bottom of the market, and by keeping this house you skip all the costs of selling this one and buying another later on. No telling what interest rates will be when you are ready to buy again, so it seems to me …
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Rents are higher in Seattle and headed up, while SD is flat. http://www.apartmentratings.com/rate/CA ... icing.html http://www.apartmentratings.com/rate/WA ... icing.html "Vacancy rates down, rents up at Seattle apartments" http://seattl…
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"Its an analogy of desktop linux trying to catch up with desktop windows. LOL" Its an analogy of desktop machines trying to catch up with mainframes. snort
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According to housingtracker.net, inventory is falling in a lot of bubble markets, including Riverside, Miami, LA, and so on. Prices are still falling there, except at the high end in some areas. The high end may be benefiting from the increased l…
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I don't see how this is a bailout. If the bank is willing to write-off the loss from 750K down to 425K, why not let them? All this bill does is help get around the red-tape of obtaining the same FHA backing that a mortgage on the same house would ge…
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very funny summary of the sub-prime mortgage mess: http://docs.google.com/TeamPresent?doci ... pauth=true language warning
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Open the negotiations by telling the owner you are moving out. That establishes the baseline at $0/month instead of your current rent, because no one will want to move into a place with a for sale sign on it. Then you can compromise at half-way betw…
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Those markdowns are just the risk inherent in a highly leveraged investment. The one thing that is sure is that inflation is headed our way: falling dollar, already full employment, election. Now Clinton friend Rubin heads Citibank, which stands …
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The spread between jumbo loans and regular opened up to a huge gap in October but has since partially closed. Graph rate trends over time: Jumbo vs. Conforming That should help high-end home sales and thereby bring the median price back up. Ac…
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It's surprising to hear about construction being slower than expected in this market. The only thing I can think of is the builder is trying to stretch out the work to keep his best people on the payroll during a slow time. That would suggest the wo…
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Surprisingly enough, the number is legit (sort of): http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/ ... n06t9.html That seems to count just about everything that has a roof. I wonder if those old missle sites are included. Washington state is under…
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Those calculators of expected long term returns are misleading. The average is brought up by outliers of where a very unlikely series of very high returns yields an astronomical number that pulls the average up. The median return is not quite as ent…
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That's a purty picture, but the regression says that when unemployment goes up prices go down, but right now both unemployment and prices are going down. What's going on is the economy is driving both, and this cycle the forces at work in the eco…
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The negative amortization loans are just too sleazy to allow people to peddle them on an unsophisticated general market. In the same way that there are regulations on how much you should have in assets before you are allowed to invest in options, th…
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I don't have a problem with most of it, but calling on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, thereby crashing the economy, just so people who retired too early can keep on enjoying their present standard of living while younger people are out…
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Did I miss anything in his posts? Coffee is for closers.
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Seems like the bulk of growth of MS headcount is outside the US. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/m ... cation=rss Apparently these numbers don't include contractors.
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There are puts and calls listed here: http://www.cme.com/daily_bulletin/Secti ... 007194.pdf http://www.cme.com/clearing/clr/spec/co ... NG&foi=OOF I think the interpretation of the levels of the CSI as a prediction of a falling price is …
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You could buy the condo now and at the same time buy put options on the Case-Shiller Index. There isn't a market for Seattle specifically, but you could use the nationwide one. That way, as housing market falls, the value of the puts will rise. The …
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E.g. if you can net $700/month (which would require about $1000/month in rent) for it in rent that's about an 8% return on $105,000. But rent goes up with inflation, and I think most would agree that it will go up even more. So if you figure …
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The prices on Altos seem well above the median of sales price, which makes sense because they are listings. With the exception of Mercer Island, a lot of the cost per square foot figures are not dropping as fast the the median price. The rising inv…
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I don't know how to get mortgage info, but it's parcel 0241500035 and has a notice of an on-site sewage system. They are apparently now calling it their "Beautiful 3 level water feature." I don't know the regs in this state, but on 1/4 acre with a f…
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The $370K sale probably came with a car. Judging by what's in that driveway, probably more than one.