perplexd
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sniglet wrote: Sorry, but I just don't see how the raw materials are going to keep rising in price since the inflation they've been experiencing is merely an extension of the credit bubble as well. No, I think all asset prices (including oil, copp…
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Here's a nice real life example. This house just went on the market a few days ago for 599k: http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/print ... -id=872142 I'm renting the house directly behind it for $2100. Looks fairly comparable to me. By the ti…
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Perhaps I should have said if you put $50k in the bank, the banking system probably loans out $500k to 2-3 million based on those reserves.
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No, if you put 50k in the bank, and the bank loans out 49,500, and the person they loan it to spends it, and deposits it in another bank (or maybe the same bank), and then 49,450 is loaned out from those reserves, and so on. It could be different…
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Sure they can, because the reserve requirement is far less than 100% The link you provided says This percentage of required reserves directly affects how much money they can "create" in their local economies through loans and investments. …
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sniglet wrote: mike2 wrote: As long as the mortgage loans can be securitized and sold, the reserve requirements don't put much restriction on how many loans can be issued. The faster they can sell the securities the more new loans they can or…
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The meaning of 'lost money' is obscure to me with respect to whether 'lost' means it was destroyed or simply transferred to someone else. If we have new money created by new loans but never destroyed, then inflation can be our only ultimate desti…
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I used to make a very similar argument, but the answer "somebody probably lost money" isn't really satisfactory. Who lost money and was the money just moved around or actually pulled out of the economy? If it wasn't removed from the economy, then I'…
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I think you have to factor in the 80k, too, but he trouble is that people think houses are "good investments" because they "always go up". Unfortunately, I think this is always the hurdle you can't clear in these conversations. The closest you ge…
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Ultimately, we still need to buy oil, though, and people will stop selling it to us if our currency is obviously worthless. Chinese and Indian demand for energy is growing like 6% a year and they can actually pay for it with real goods and services.…
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Y2K was people preparing for the unknown. Resource shortages based on science (which is what peak oil is) is a completely different thing. Also, why is the dollar forever? You realize it has lost 97% of its value since inception of the Fed in 191…
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Regarding the inflation vs. deflation, here's something to chew on. I used to argue the delfation case under a massive credit-loss scenario, but here's the counter argument that has me stumped and almost permanently in the hyperinflation camp. It…
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What I find a bit amusing is the concept that gold isn't intrinsically good money because you can't do anyting with it. This is one of the things that makes it great for money because it means it doesn't get used up, and it is hard to find and mine,…
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biliruben wrote: I just simply don't see any intrinsic value in gold. Can't eat it, can't build anything but fancy necklaces. And the intrinsic value of these green pieces of paper in my wallet? Oh, right, I can start a fire with them. …
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sniglet wrote: perplexd wrote: The issue is the ratio of how much energy you put in versus how much you get out. BTW, when is the last time you threw up a bunch of nuclear plants? Not exactly. Some form of energy are more convenient tha…
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sniglet wrote: There is no reason that natural gas has to be the energy input needed to process tar sands/bitumen. You're right, it doesn't need to be nat gas, but that's not the issue. The issue is the ratio of how much energy you put in v…
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Alan wrote: Oil shale is prevalent but not economic right now. As prices rise new forms will become economical to process. Absolutely not true. Oil shale is basically a mining operation. Tar sands use natural gas to steam-clean the tar from…
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The Tim wrote: synthetik wrote: If oil is replenishing somehow, why haven't we made any new discoveries? We have. That's a drop in the bucket. We've used more oil than we found globally in every year since 1985. If oil is natura…
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Is someone out there burning money and not telling synthetik or me about it? Last I checked, money printing was in overdrive by every central bank on the planet. Now that they aren't backed by gold, the fiat currencies are only backed by confiden…
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biliruben wrote: Illegal immigrants ARE the builders. They are much less the buyers. But when you do the rent/buy math, they make all the difference, and if you do the buy-to-rent-out-as-investment math, things look even worse if a big chu…
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Yes, I noticed Lubbock on there as well. I should mention that all of these places are probably most 'undervalued' by people who understand what the next energy crisis is going to do to the viability of constant, year-round air conditioning...
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I think these are just fronts for agents. I actually bought my first house from an agent via a very similar web site in 2001. Basically, they pitch it like a 'deal' to get people who don't think they can afford a house interested and talking to a re…
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Yes, I find I have the same reaction to TA. The trend is your friend until it isn't -- pretty worthless, but I do read some TA articles and sites sometimes and I think they are useful backups to reveal whether the fundamentals are going to be in con…
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The best possible thing about having a mortgage right now is the prospect of a tanking dollar so you can pay back your fixed 30 in cheap money. The money banks would just LOVE to give you a 2% discount and have you agree to pay it back in swiss fran…
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It was probably an awesome time to take out an ARM, if anyone would offer you one.
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Jazen wrote: Not much of a catalyst to precipitate it though, was hoping for something more disasterous. This could be part of it as well: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2639 High oil combined with higher interest rates = bad news.
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Truth-telling is not a money making business. Never has been.
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finance wrote: The key difference currently for the stock market valuation is that the P/E ratio for the S&P500 is about 17.5 or the avg over the past 20 years...so overall the market is about fair market value. Thus it is not significantly o…
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Inflation measures have been B.S. for some time. Keep in mind that COLA adjustments to Social Security, Medicare, Government pensions -- you know entitlements are the largest items in the fed budget by far right? -- these items all get relatively ch…