Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries from August 31st, 2006

Condos: Mini -> Micro -> Nano

By The Tim on August 31st, 2006 at 12:18 PM · 23 Comments

Downtown Seattle: decent jobs, passable entertainment, increasingly unaffordable housing. So what’s the solution? According to today’s P-I, the time has come for the incredible shrinking condo.

Park two of GMC’s biggest Sierra pickups next to each other. That’s a lot of truck, but a small condominium — at least by Seattle standards.

But a local developer is betting Seattle urbanites are primed to carve out their own two-truck chunks of Belltown. The moda condos, set to break ground in October, promise "New York-style living," with units as small as 296 square feet that start at $149,950.

"I think there’s unmet demand for affordable new construction in downtown," said developer G. David Hoy, president of HMI Real Estate Inc. "I also believe downtown needs more diversity."

You have to respect a guy that can so artfully spin what is essentially a glorified dorm room with phrases like "affordable new construction" and "diversity." I guess this is what it takes to get into a home downtown. I don’t doubt that there will be plenty of people anxious to get their very own 296 square feet of American Dream™.

I think I’ll get a few steps ahead of the curve, and look into opening an outlet where I can sell the affordable housing of the future.

(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 08.31.2006)

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CNBC : Online housing searches indicate bounce

By S-Crow on August 31st, 2006 at 9:16 AM · 6 Comments

CNBC’s Jane Wells is reporting that Internet data miners indicate the online search queries for “homes for sale” is up 42%, suggesting that the housing market is poised to pick up.

The reader who e-mailed me this article suggests maybe that the opposite is true. People are searching to see what homes are listed for in their neighborhood to gauge possible list prices.

According to some Internet data miners, online search queries could be a better economic indicator.

Over the past five weeks, there’s been a 42% increase in the number of Internet searches involving the phrase “homes for sale,” according to Hitwise, a firm which measures Web traffic.

I for one hope that the market continues on it’s track in the Puget Sound region, but my sense is that this Fall will be an indicator of where the market will go. Thing is, I thought that to be the case last year. So,what do I know?

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Anecdote Updates & YAWA

By The Tim on August 30th, 2006 at 2:24 PM · 27 Comments

I think it’s time to update you on some of the local action (or lack thereof) that I’ve been keeping my eye on. I’ll take these in the order that they were originally posted.

First up, we’ve got the park-backing property down the street from me. The last time I mentioned it (way back in mid-June), it had been languishing on the market for two and a half months, at a price comparable to recent nearby sales. Well it finally sold, closing about a month after I made that post. The sale price was $50,000 less than the asking price, and the poor deprived seller only made $72,500 (assuming 6% agent fees and no buyer closing costs rolled into the sale price) for doing nothing more than sitting on a property for two years.

Next up, the million-dollar new construction on my drive home. Apparently I wasn’t the only one that thought $1,625,000 was a ridiculous price, because so far the fancy house on three primly-manicured acres (with a waterfall!) has taken two price drops (for a total of $130,000—8%), and is pushing four months on the market. Will the seller end up slowly chasing the market down? We’ll see…

Of course we can’t forget my California-bound coworker. She and her husband moved down to their new home town about a month ago, but unfortunately for them, their house still has not sold. Oddly enough, although their house has been on the market now for 73 days, they are holding firm on the asking price at $490,000. Also worth mentioning is that at around the 1 month mark, their home was de-listed and re-listed, with no change to the listing whatsoever, in what (if I’m not mistaken) is a blatant violation of NWMLS rules.

Lastly, I may as well mention yet another workplace anecdote. This coworker requested a transfer to the greener pastures of Moses Lake, and therefore is selling his home in rural Snohomish County. Purchased in 2000 for $165,000, the original asking price for his “custom built 3 bedroom 2 bath rambler” on 1/2 acre across the street from a lake was $350,000. Three price drops (down to $305,000) and 51 days later, still no takers, and I recently overheard the increasingly distressed owner talking about the possibility of taking on two mortgages at once. I guess he’ll have to if he’s serious about the latest price reduction being the “*FINAL PRICE REDUCTION*” he is claiming it to be. On the one hand, I feel bad that a good person like that is having trouble selling with an impending move. On the other hand, he’s still asking for 85% more than he paid just six years ago. Is he just being greedy, or has he cashed out $120,000 in equity and honestly can’t afford to reduce the price further?

In case anyone would accuse me of it, I’m not cherry-picking the anecdotes that fit my view on housing. These are just the housing stories that I know from the circles I run in.

As you can see, the Seattle-area housing market is still hot, hot, hot!

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Local Media "Starting to Notice Cooling"

By The Tim on August 30th, 2006 at 8:53 AM · 19 Comments

Thanks to reader Peckhammer for pointing out an apparently self-contradictory article in today’s Seattle P-I. It begins quite predictably, with the usual examples that purport to show that the Seattle market is still hot, hot, hot

House hunter Vicky Tsai has paid for two inspections of homes she didn’t buy: one that she lost out on because she was outbid by $20,000 despite offering $50,000 above the asking price, and another that she passed on after deciding it was too small.

Inspectors and real-estate agents say that — at least for desirable homes in Seattle’s more sought-after neighborhoods — purchase offers "subject to inspection" may become as outmoded as offers contingent on the sale of another house. Instead, would-be buyers are paying for inspections before making a bid on the house as is, or forgoing inspections altogether.

"It’s becoming a way of life," inspector Fred Grant said while waiting to look over a West Seattle house earlier this month.

Darrell Marsolais, who owns PSI Home Inspection Services, said he has done more preoffer inspections this year than in past years.

"It’s just the Seattle market," he said. "Most any house that’s being offered in the core Seattle area, there’s always multiple offers."

Pre-inspections are "a way of life," there are "always multiple offers," etc… we’ve heard it all before. But wait! It seems that someone managed to sneak in a snippet at the end about the reality of Seattle’s slowing market:

The popularity of preinspections varies from house to house and price range to price range, [Sound Home Inspections owner George] Guttmann said. "Sometimes multiple bids are expected and people do preinspections and it turns out there weren’t multiple bids," he said.

He added that he’s starting to notice cooling in the housing market, with more signs noting price reductions. The latest statistics show slower sales and more houses on the market than a year ago.

Yeah, "the latest statistics," along with every month of statistics since April. After four straight months of obvious slowing, we’re still just getting a passing mention of it in the press. "Annoying News Coverage" indeed.

(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 08.30.2006)

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Lender Tightening within 60 days?

By S-Crow on August 29th, 2006 at 8:40 PM · 16 Comments

From today’s information at Calculated Risk Blog. It appears that federal regulation regarding non-traditional mortgages may be in place within 60 days. If this ends up having any teeth at all, it could make it more challenging for borrowers to qualify for interest-only loans or pay-option loans.

As one blogger responded: “talk about rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.” Maybe a little too late, the damage is already done.

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Bubble Link Roundup

By The Tim on August 29th, 2006 at 11:09 AM · 33 Comments

These don’t necessarily have to do with the Seattle area specifically, they’re just a collection of interesting housing-related links that I have come across in the last week or so and thought I would share.

Let me know if you like the "link roundup" kind of post. I often have stories that interest me but aren’t quite enough to make a full post about. I could see making a post like this maybe once a week or so. Lastly, for the record, I thought of this concept before Dustin started going nuts with the lists.

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