Around the Sound: Sales down in King, Kitsap, Island, and Skagit

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It has been a few months since we looked at the housing stats for the broader Puget Sound area. Now that the first quarter of 2018 is over, let’s update our “Around the Sound” statistics for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, Skagit, and Whatcom counties.

First up, a summary table:

March 2018 King Snohomish Pierce Kitsap Thurston Island Skagit Whatcom
Median Price $689,950 $475,000 $349,950 $341,360 $301,000 $365,000 $348,500 $368,000
Price YOY +15.0% +11.8% +18.6% +18.5% +9.7% +14.4% +12.0% +9.1%
Active Listings 1,687 679 1,269 337 445 258 282 414
Listings YOY -0.9% -14.1% -11.7% -34.3% -19.4% -11.9% -6.6% -8.8%
Closed Sales 1,883 903 1,302 346 399 131 153 220
Sales YOY -9.4% -1.5% +2.7% -8.0% -1.5% -21.6% -12.1% -3.5%
Months of Supply 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 2.0 1.8 1.9

Prices are climbing and listings are down across the board. King County actually had the smallest listings decrease among the Puget Sound counties, and one of the largest drops in sales. Sales also dropped significantly in Kitsap, Island, and Skagit counties.

Here’s the chart of median prices compared to a year ago. Every county turned in a gain, with only Thurston and Whatcom turning in single-digit price gains.

Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

Listings were down significantly from a year earlier everywhere… except King County. Every other county still saw fairly significant year-over-year decreases, with the largest coming in Kitsap.

Active Listings of Single-Family Homes

Seven of the eight Puget Sound counties saw sales fall compared to a year ago. This is the first time that sales fell year-over-year in many counties since April 2011.

Closed Sales of Single-Family Homes

Months of supply is low everywhere, but for the first time in a while, some counties actually did see a slight increase in this metric.

Months of Supply Single Family Homes

Finally, here’s a chart comparing the median price in March to the 2007 peak price in each county. Every Puget Sound has now exceeded the previous peak median price and is charting new territory.

Peak Median Sale Price Single-Family Homes

In summary: It’s still a better time than ever to sell a home in the Puget Sound, but there may finally be some tiny cracks beginning to form in the sellers’ market.

If there is certain data you would like to see or ways you would like to see the data presented differently, drop a comment below and let me know.

NWMLS: Prices surge as sales slip and inventory inches up

March market stats have been published by the NWMLS…

Despite the big bump up in prices to a new all-time high, there is some good-ish news for home buyers in the March data. Compared to a year ago, new listings are up, total listings were basically flat, and sales were down. The overall market is still definitely heavily skewed toward sellers, but at least last month’s trends are finally moving a little bit in buyers’ favor.

Consumer Confidence at levels not seen since the dot-com bust

It’s been quite a while since we last checked in on Consumer Confidence and mortgage interest rates, so let’s take a look at an update to those charts.

The overall Consumer Confidence Index currently sits at 127.7, down two percent in a month and up two percent from a year ago. The current levels are higher than any point since late 2000, just as the dot-com bubble was bursting…

March Stats Preview: Sales slip slightly from last March

Now that March is done, let’s look at our regular monthly “preview” charts. Here’s the summary for March: Sales look to be a bit lower than last year, even as the spring bump has begun. Listings are still struggling to make gains. Foreclosures are still nearly non-existent.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

King & Snohomish County Stats Preview

If sales start falling off, we could see some hope for buyers later in 2018, but right now it’s too early to make a call like that…

Case-Shiller Tiers: To. The. Moon.

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $373,070 (up 0.2%)
  • Mid Tier: $373,070 – $604,377
  • Hi Tier: > $604,377 (up 0.3%)

Case-Shiller: Seattle kicks off 2018 with surging home prices

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to January data that was released this week, Seattle-area home prices were:

Up 0.7 percent December to January
Up 12.9 percent year-over-year.
Up 21.8 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 0.6 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 11.3 percent.

Seattle still leads the nation in year-over-year price growth. The only other metro areas with double-digit price growth from a year earlier are Las Vegas at 11.1 percent and San Francisco at 10.3 percent.