From Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking:
Percentage of Reduced Listings Per Market.
Ventura County:
10/22: 51.3%—> 11/18: 50.3%Sacramento Metro:
1/30: 30.5%—> 10/20: 49.0%—> 11/18: 49.0%Orange County:
1/30: 22.8%—> 10/20: 45.8%—> 11/18: 45.0%San Diego County:
1/30: 26.3%—> 10/20: 43.9%—> 11/18: 42.9%Phoenix Metro:
1/30: 28.0%—> 10/20: 43.2%—> 11/18: 42.2%Riverside County:
1/30: 27.3%—> 10/20: 40.2%—> 11/18: 39.5%Las Vegas Metro:
1/30: 21.0%—> 10/20: 40.0%—> 11/18: 39.9%Los Angeles County:
1/30: 21.8%—> 10/20: 39.6%—> 11/18: 38.8%Seattle Metro:
1/30: 17.1%—> 10/20: 33.0%—> 11/18: 33.9%Santa Clara County:
1/30: 13.6%—> 10/20: 30.8%—> 11/18: 32.7%
2006 Price Reduction history in Seattle, showing the clear trend.
11/18: 33.9%
10/20: 33.0%
09/14: 28.1%
08/13: 25.2%
07/13: 24.0%
06/13: 21.8%
05/13: 20.3%
01/30: 17.1%
(data courtesy of ziprealty.com)
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13 responses so far ↓
1
Rob Dawg
// Nov 25, 2006 at 6:48 pm
Could just be that we in Ventura County are just more honest about reporting a price reduction. Then again we are down 3.1% y-o-y so it could be that we are leading the way. With a $590k median price we have a ways to go before becoming affordable however.
There are compensations, how’s the weather? ;-)
2
seattle long term owner
// Nov 25, 2006 at 7:17 pm
lot of this are owners in denial thinking they still deserve the 30% YOY appreciation…
after a week of no interest, and an agent that doesn’t bother to lift a finger until it drops to a reasonable price, reality sets in…
Actually just coz there are less price reductions doesn’t mean anything… mass media is no longer in denial and the average joe can’t really ignore that anymore and some will actually price to sell from the getgo…
then there’s the mentality of looking only for those that have been reduced…
3
Eleua
// Nov 25, 2006 at 8:46 pm
Just more anecdotal “analysis”…
Without exception, every person I chat up about real estate thinks we are at the bottom and 2Q-07 will be the start of another huge run in real estate.
My take on that prediction is as follows:
1 part Bravo-Sierra
2 parts wishful thinking
These housing bulls never saw the slowdown coming, so why would they have the precience to call the bottom and the next recovery?
Look for shorts-staining panic at the end of 3Q-07. The ‘07 selling season is going to be a real flop.
4
Dukes
// Nov 26, 2006 at 9:44 am
Just a bit of anecdotal evidence of the Seattle slowdown.
My bro-in-law, as I have posted before is in real estate. He has recently moved from the Kirkland office of his co. to the Ballard office. He has ONE sale this year and he has now taken on part time work.
I learned of this through my wife who has spoken to him. I didn’t have the heart to bring it up over Turkey Day, but such is life. I have had the conversation with him in the past about real estate and he was very gung ho and over confident in my opinion.
Fundmentals are pointing to a huge shift, we all (or most of us) here have seen it coming. In due time this will play out…be patient. It will be very interesting to see what happens early next year.
5
SeattleMoose
// Nov 26, 2006 at 11:00 am
“Without exception, every person I chat up about real estate thinks we are at the bottom and 2Q-07 will be the start of another huge run in real estate.”
I have also heard this from several people at work. But in both cases when I asked them about the basis for such hope, they indicated their reply was based on the “normal” cyclical pattern of RE (goes up in spring as demand increases).
Simple logic really which would hold IF the existing market were indeed “normal”. Given the today’s market is the most bloated/overpriced market in the history of RE, it is just possible that calling the market normal is, well you know….:-)
2007 is going to be like a bucket of ice being thrown on the heads of complacent homeowners….
6
dalas
// Nov 26, 2006 at 1:24 pm
where is your source?
(data courtesy of ziprealty.com)
you derived this crap from ziprealty.com or did ziprealty.com provided the data from an actual “reliable” source.
how come I am not surprise that you guys post these kind of crap?
7
Crashcadia
// Nov 26, 2006 at 3:27 pm
The onset of recession will dash all hopes of a housing recovery in spring.
8
synthetik
// Nov 26, 2006 at 7:04 pm
Dukes -
Is your bro in law a newbie or well established realtor?
I’m hearing this kind of thing from new recruits that come into my clients’ offices in Florida, Mass and Arizona - but it’s even 20+ year veterans that hsve no sales.
Crashcadia -
You are correct. Even if we didn’t have a recession we’d still have a major housing correction. We’re going to have both and grinspin will be known as the double bubble central wanker. er., banker.
9
Eleua
// Nov 26, 2006 at 8:19 pm
This article on Ben’s blog really sums up where our market is going.
Once the X-Cal money dries up, sellers will have to compete with forclosures to sell their house. This is going to be a complete equity wipe-out.
I also believe this article only scratches the surface. Remember, the market isn’t in full retreat - yet. Also, we are still in a relatively healthy economy. Once the housing market is widely considered to be a loser, and the economy sucks enough to be noticed by the GOP and CNBC, there will be an incomprehensible amount of pain.
Remember, the bulk of the ‘Boomers” retirements are in their residential real estate.
10
synthetik
// Nov 26, 2006 at 9:07 pm
re: Troll Question
go to http://www.ziprealty.com and do an entire search for King County. This finds 9287 homes for sale. Then go back and check the box “show me reduced properties only”, which results in 3171 properties.
Simple math will tell you the results are now 34.16% reduced in King County.
11
Dukes
// Nov 27, 2006 at 12:03 pm
synthetik:
The bro in law has a little over 2 years in the biz. Just enough to make him overly bullish, plus he isn’t all that bright.
12
PugetHouse
// Nov 27, 2006 at 6:23 pm
eleua,
The article you cite is full of cherry-picked anecdotal evidence.
1. Perhaps the typical investment behavior in Green Valley Ranch, TX has been irrational. However, King County buyers have been forced into rather conservative behavior.
2. Perhaps X-Cal money is big in Kitsap, but not at all so in King. BTW, where are your numbers?
Although your first post seems plausible, your second looks a bit like sensationalism.
13
Jackson Wallace
// Nov 30, 2006 at 5:18 am
I’ve noticed a lot of homes coming up fior sale on western Queen Anne, going up towards Interbay, at least 10-20 in an area that used to have very few. While the prices are probably double what they were 6 years ago, they vary wildly. A friend in the area tells me places have been sitting on the market for a month or more, unheard of before. I’m not saying its anything tangible yet, butwe’ve only just begun to collapse. The only problem is buying in a bottoming market is keeping a job.
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