Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

13 responses to “Seattle Bubble on Inman News”

  1. synthetik

    Q: Will there ever be a time when the discussion about bubbles goes away? Is this just a passing fancy?

    A: I imagine that we will stop discussing bubbles when they stop crapping all over our economy.

    [cartman] sweeeet. [/cartman]

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  2. Eleua

    I enjoyed all the interviews. The self-proclaimed “debunker” was particularly enjoyable. He spent his entire time talking about the motivations of the REBC (real estate bubble complex), rather than the fundamentals of the market.

    Reading his interview was just like watching 30 minutes of CNBC back in ’99/’00.

    You could feel the fear in his responses. My guess is he is stocking up on Depends.

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  3. synthetik

    Boy, this Glenn Roberts Jr. isn’t all that bright, is he? What will all the Real Estate Clerks do when their are no jobs available at Mcdonalds?

    “Most members of the Real Estate Bubble Complex (REBC) believe that if you don’t agree the market is ready to collapse that you’re still predicting prices will rise without end. It’s an inane argument. Prices have declined in some areas, but I don’t believe they will fall to pre-2004 prices.”

    So when is the next meeting of the REBC? I need to stop by and pick up my check…

    It’s not a bubble, prices are just declining.

    It’s not a civil war, just sectarian violence.

    It all depends on what the meaning of the word IS, is.

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  4. The Tim

    Boy, this Glenn Roberts Jr. isn’t all that bright, is he?

    Let’s be fair here. The words you quoted were those of Jonathan Dalton, Phoenix area RE agent. Glenn Roberts Jr. was just the interviewer.

    Give credit where credit is due. :^)

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  5. synthetik

    I also liked this statement from the SoCal Bubble Blogger:

    Q: How does this definition fit (or not fit) the national housing market? Which regional or local housing markets have exhibited the most bubble characteristics?

    A: Housing markets are local, but credit markets are national (and in certain ways global).

    This is a fantastic response to the Real Estate Clerks who love to say “ah, but RE is local!”

    Of course it’s local. And, of course, the cheap easy-sleazy money is national. Why do you think BK’s and foreclosures are going through the roof in places that saw little in the way of home appreciation? (flyover country anyone?)

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  6. SeattleMoose

    “Also, I do not claim to be an expert on issues of real estate or economics, and I have never received formal training nor held a job in either of those fields.”

    And it is precisely for this reason that I am a fan of your blog. YOU make MUCH more sense than all the “expert” talking heads that monopolize the media.

    The great value of an “expert” is to make sound judgements and predictions in their field of endeavor.

    Given this definition it is sadly ironic that someone who is humble enough to admit he not an expert but who is 100% correct is ignored while the “true experts” whose quotes are treated as gospel by the media are 100% wrong.

    Remember it took the innocence of a child to state the obvious….”The emperor has no clothes”…this parable succinctly sums up the human tendency to be delusional. As you stated…root cause is mass psychology.

    Great interview Tim and keep up the good work.

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  7. The Tim

    Thank you for the kind words, SeattleMoose. They are certainly welcome after the ravaging I’ve been taking over at RCG this afternoon.

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  8. SLTO

    fear is a very sour taste in the mouth… in a booming market they wouldn’t even bother responding to you…

    If the market was fungollyetally sound no level of blog speak can shake it’s foundations…

    However in a speculative market, the mass psyche is about selling at the top and not selling too early…

    this is where blogs like these make too many people lose sleep and eventually sell too soon…

    To all the potential sellers here… DONT SELL YOUR HOUSE… and if no one did I wonder how many homes these realtors will actually sell…

    On the other hand I wonder what education a realtor has to achieve to sell…

    is it a college or university degree? I ask coz I don’t know…

    I always find it interesting when people think experience is everything… it’s something but not everything…

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  9. SeattleMoose

    Word on the street….both Boeing and Microsoft employment are past peak and headed down.

    Have confirmed Boeing (engineering down with manufacturing holding steady).

    Waiting to confirm MS (Zune/Vista sales off and major design effort over).

    Sources are local head hunter/recruiters.

    Just more fuel on the fire.

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  10. witzend

    Selected tidbits from the “debunker”:

    A: Most of the markets that rose precipitously in 2004-05 featured investment purchased with positive cash flow

    A statement that is just begging for some kind of factual support. Translates to: ” there is no danger of mass-loan default” I suppose

    A:Most members of the Real Estate Bubble Complex (REBC)

    WTF!!!!????

    A:Members of the REBC seek capitulation, not agreement

    What a brutal bunch, the REBC!

    A:When your theme is doom, it’s hard to take any other stance even if statistics eventually point to a different scenario.

    Funny how the opposite could be said just as easily! Didn’t think that one through did he.

    A:the inability of many to understand the difference between a real estate agent and a lender

    Give me a break! But I think I see where you’re going with this. Answer to the intended statement: No you’re not an innocent party.

    A:At least those of us in the industry have some sort of accountability.

    Fading fast, my friend

    A:Traffic on my blog spiked when I dared question the REBC

    No one dares question the REBC!!! We have ways of making you capitulate, eventually.

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  11. Eleua

    I am curious about the term REBC.

    I’ve been using the term REIC for some time. It fits. It fully encapsulates how the financial interests of the REIC cabal are against their customers and the public at large.

    There is A TRAINLOAD of money in the REIC. How much money do the regulars at SB and other bubble blogs take in based upon being in the REBC?

    For me, all my bloviations have been pro-bono (you are welcome). I have no fianancial dog in this fight. For me, it’s just a bloodsport.

    When the pinnacle of some idiot’s argument is the identification of a sinister cabal called the REBC, you have to know that the motor is running, but nobody is behind the wheel.

    Keep in mind, this guy is a licensed professional. YIKES!

    If licensed airline transport pilots were this incompetant, we would have a fatal crash every other takeoff.

    Morons.

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  12. FlipFlop

    Excellent job Tim. The RE fangs are coming out leading me to believe they know you make sense. Thanks for doing this blog.

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  13. T,V & Mr.B

    Righto SLTO. Me thinks they doth protest too much

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