Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

130 responses

  1. UW. Statistical Analyst.

  2. I work at Microsoft as a Financial Analyst-Server and Tools.

  3. hmmm. bili, methinks I should send you my spreadsheet to get an expert opinion on statistical validity!

  4. Patent Attorney (software-focused), Real Estate Investor.

  5. Financial Analyst for a Commercial Real Estate Investment Fund

  6. Boeing. Enterprise Software Performance Consultant.

  7. I have three jobs (I was recently downsized so I picked up another one):

    Seitel Leeds & Associates (IT Consulting Firm) – Accounting, technical editing, web content management

    Gig Harbor Boat Works – Bookkeeping

    Epiphany Parish of Seattle – Mezzo-Soprano Soloist

  8. wells fargo – asset manager

  9. Key Controls, Tampa, FL. Sales/Applications Engineer

  10. Microsoft, Software Design Engineer.

  11. Microsoft, Software Design Engineer.

  12. You are doing fine, DJ.

    You are holding to the number 1 rule; particularly when the data is sketchy. That’s to keep it simple!

  13. sw engineer, security

  14. Physician in Tacoma

  15. hi. i work on the east side as a technical writer.

    i would like to get an opinion from this community. ive commuted to bellevue from tacoma for 10 years. vanpool, etc. it doesnt work anymore. i need to move to keep my job. ive got a house in tacoma that is being sold. i will have a good downpayment for a house, and i dont expect to be moving again for at least 5 years. so if i buy and there is a market correction, and then values go back up, i ought to be ok. but i could also rent. renting would be good if the market is going to go down more than a few percent. but if the market just stays flat, i should have bought (i think buying is better, just for the security of not being forced to move if the landlord has to sell, and also so i can add personal touches to a house you cant do as a renter).

    so what does the community think? are we going to lose 5-10% of value on the eastside (renton/bellevue), or will the market just stay flat for 4-5 years?

    with the number of construction cranes in downtown bellevue, there is going to be a glut of office space here. even if a developer goes bankrupt, someone will buy the building and rent out space. cheap office rents will bring jobs, which will keep price pressure on homes.

    thanks for your thoughts!

    mike

  16. Realogy, Microsoft Relocation Center

  17. Mechanical/Nuclear Engineer working as a Systems Engineering Manager [I don't work for Boeing...lol]. I invented computer mainframe controls in 1978 for gage manufacturing development of the 757/767 wing; as this was before CATIA and CADAM were invented.

  18. Former EE, adjunct prof at SPU, web admin @ Mars Hill Church, and wedding and portrait photographer.

  19. Small real estate development and consulting firm specializing in land strategies

  20. Manage a group of Software Engineers. Military/Aerospace applications.

  21. Microsoft, Software Design Engineer.

  22. Technical Project Manager – Can’t say what the company is though since we’re in the middle of a buyout. ;)

  23. King County, developer

  24. Screenwriter, though I’ll b at UW in a psych Phd program, so career will likely change over the next few years.

  25. Wife and I own and operate Legacy Escrow Service, Inc. in Everett. We are an authentic independant escrow company (not owned by a title co, real estate broker, mortgage broker or any other financial services business).

    My other job is housing engineer at my shack. (code for remodel, repair and maintenance guy–which reminds me, I have to get back to installing the bathroom countertop.

  26. Sandle stitcher for St. Joesph’s Convent. One day I hope to get my real estate license so I can cash in on the real estate boom.

  27. Software engineer. Smallish company in Poulsbo.

  28. PM, Microsoft

  29. Importer/Exporter, Vandelay Industries.

  30. Proposal Manager for a local boat builder

  31. I’m still laughing about Vandelay Industries. Nice one. I am a high school history teacher…someone’s got to represent the Humanities up in here.

  32. Financial Analyst Consultant at Cingular “the new at&t” in the Strategic Real Estate Dept (working with cell towers, not in the RE industry and paid an hourly rate, not commission). I do Rent Reduction and Site Sales for redundant sites (dont want our customers to have too good of reception, lol) for Cingular through our vendor…saved the company a little over $1M over the past year (auditing the deals) due just to our vendors overbilling us, those bastards.

    Starting a FT job in AUG as a Risk Analyst II at a super cool company downtown Seattle (working with large companies to broker professional insurances).

  33. Haha, Vandelay!

    I’m an SDET at Microsoft, on a team writing/designing test automation framework for test labs — aka code monkey.

  34. Systems Architect for a Telecom Service Provider

  35. Why are all bubbleheads geeks?

    No rodeo clowns or stock car drivers in the bunch.

    mikek – My wild guess is that the market will fall 20-40% on the eastside over the next 3-4 years and won’t see the current price again until 2014 at the very earliest. Probably closer to 2017, or perhaps 2080. Probably never, taking inflation into account, given that houses don’t really appreciate in the long run more than 1% or so over inflation, and we’ve seen 200% over the last 10 years. Given that, I would probably rent. I have no clue whether my guess is even close or whether your personal situation is such that you can sustain a 20-40% drop and it owning would be worth that. Just my a wild guess, but that’s all anyone can give.

    For what it’s worth, I currently own a house and am not selling. I am, however, waiting to buy a nicer house until 2010 or so.

  36. Former Navy Officer.
    Part time airline pilot (MD80) NYC.
    Almost full time stay-at-home dad.
    Full time economic gadfly.

  37. Disabled…seriously.

    Not on gooberment dole (SSDI). Don’t believe in taking money out of peoples pockets as there are others in this country that truly need it.

    Only in Seattle to hopefully regain my sanity.

    Not a geek nor an expert in anything.

    Probably will get into auto racing someday.

  38. SDET, MSFT.

  39. Computer-based scientist, in the middle of a career transition.

    Which leads me to a question, you Microsofties: are the empire’s hiring practices as arbitrary as they seem? They took a big Zune on my head recently with not one, but TWO full-day interview loops, only to tell me that they’re “pursuing other candidates,” and that I should “apply again in one year” (yeah, right. Fool me once, shame on you…)

    The interviews all went rather well (this was for a PM position), so I was a bit thrown by the result. If anything, I got the distinct impression that I wasn’t young and pliable (read: cheap) enough for their tastes.

  40. Marriage and Family Therapist (is that geeky or not?). Husband is a marketer at Xbox. DINKs with masters degrees and we still can’t afford a decent house in this county…

  41. Another friend of mine got the same impression. He’s was over qualified for the job, but wasn’t willing to work cheap.

  42. sw engineer in security.

    Oh, and I just bought a condo downtown :)

  43. Why are all bubbleheads geeks?

    No rodeo clowns or stock car drivers in the bunch.

    I do drag race occasionally at PR, does that count for anything?

  44. Yeah, it’s funny, biliruben — I strictly avoided all conversations of salary (as did they), so it’s not like they knew that I was expensive. But I do have an advanced degree, and I’m not 23, so….

  45. IT Specialist at the Portland VA Medical Center here.

  46. Mechanical Design engineer at AcousTx. Working on a new technology to save lives:

    http://www.acoustxcorp.com

  47. scientist, UW

  48. Domestic Engineer/Money Manager:) Wife’s an Acct. Director/Insurance Industry. Comm. Deg./Wazzu.
    Apple Computers.

  49. Customer Service Rep, PSE

  50. Raising funds to buy distressed properties in Seattle…the Seattle Vulture Fund…

  51. industrial designer, major fitness company in Woodinville, renting 700 sq ft apt in Capitol Hill, looking to buy in later summer/early fall, despite 40%-80% drop in prices.

  52. Marketing specialist/ Independent wealth management firm.

    Strangely, additionally, I am the daughter of a former Navy officer who, until recently, flew MD-80s out of NYC!

  53. Um, medical Dr. in Vancouver, WA (work in Portland, OR).

  54. I am a Certified Financial Planner for a national brokerage firm in Langley, British Columbia.

  55. biliruben,

    does riding my John Deere tractor around the yard count as Rodeo? Or, do I actually have to ride my daughter’s horse and go around the arena to qualify. lol.

  56. Horticulturist, entrepreneur, surly cynic extraordinaire.

  57. Google (in Kirkland)

  58. I’m sure I am not the only one, but I am fairly impressed by the level of education and employment of the people on this board.

    Compare that to the average background of your average realtor… The few I can think of that chose schlepping real estate did so as a list ditch option for employment.

  59. eProject, Web Developer

    I’m a participant of Koei-Kan Karate-Do, does that make me special?

  60. I always suspected I was in the company of much greater minds than myself on this forum. I almost feel that I should bow out now.

  61. software engineer in sunnyvale, ca

  62. Director of Quality/IT at a small software company, but have an Econ BA from UCSD and MBA from UW.

  63. Independent software consultant. Lately doing a lot of database/analysis/business intelligence stuff. Among my grandfather’s favorite sayings is “if you’re so smart why ain’t you rich?” For me (and I think for many other geeks) the draw of the bubble phenom is that even though we’re not financial experts, we can intuitively sense when some system’s behavior is not rational, and then feel compelled to understand it’s inner workings by dissecting the numbers behind it.

  64. Architect, downtown, Seattle (with a medium sized firm to remain anonymous).

    As one whose income is dependent on the actual state of the construction industry, I’m suprised I don’t see more architects on these boards!

    Oh and I proudly rent.

  65. Mechanical engineer. Most of career spent in development and maintenance of lightweight torpedo propulsion systems for the U.S. Navy.

  66. Land planning consultant

  67. “I always suspected I was in the company of much greater minds than myself on this forum.”

    It certainly strikes me as odd that a lot of the people here have the Strong Jobs ™ that are supposed to make us all rich enough to buy $600,000 townhomes.

    What’s up with that?

  68. What’s up with that?
    they’re smart enough not to buy them for $600k!

  69. Special Agent for a 3 letter federal agency in the Seattle area.

  70. Investigating mortgage fraud? ;)

  71. Land Acquisitions PM- Centex Homes

    Haven’t been here in a while. Things sure are getting interesting. Does Meshugy still post here?

  72. I don’t do white collar crime… But I know some people that do :)

  73. Microsoft, Software Design Engineer.

    (not a duplicate comment)

  74. Release manager @ Microsoft

  75. I think prices are getting more realistic in Seattle. I just saw a cardboard box going for just $120k, near Greenlake, behind Alberson’s. If you twist your neck just right you get a nice view.

  76. Landscape Architect working in transportation planning for the city of Seattle.

  77. Governmental Accountant/CPA.
    In 2005, I sold my home, which I’d owned for approx. 13 years (purchased with a 15 year mortgage). I’m currently sitting on the sidelines, while I housesit for almost zero cost. I don’t plan on buying another house until prices return to normal.

  78. Boeing, Software Engineer

  79. This former actor, current singer/songwriter, writer/editor who recently moved to Seattle has been wondering where all the other artists are … there aren’t any — you’re all software engineers!!!! Seriously, though, I enjoy this site.

  80. I fight forest fires for a living.

  81. Translator, Chinese Mandarin, one each

  82. Real estate and land use attorney here.

  83. We fled the housing scene of seattle after mucking around in it for 3.5 years of torture in a basement apartment near a supposedly good school. We were the buyers from hell, backing out of house purchases at the 11th hour–perhaps 10 or so.

    I’m in Zimbabwe now..though actually in the NE trying to see if I can possibly live somewhere but seattle. all i can do in seattle is technical editing at microsoft, and I’m too old for the stress.

    I finally, after 2 years of trying to get back in–I left it in ‘96 but it seemed to be the only way we could buy a house and stay there—was offered a job in october–at the same wage I had had 10 years before (“she’s been out of the field for 10 years,” he said…i guess so..but that wage, which seemed good 10 years before didn’t seem so hot now).

    In Zim, I will volunteer with the mothers of the disabled, substitute teach, and edit some text books while my kids go to school and my husband, who used to be federal govn in seattle, retires.

  84. I would love to see the occupational and educational background of those that are true believers in the perpetuity of the real estate escalator (prior to them getting their RE license).

    I must say that this thread has compiled an impressive list. I draw the following conclusions:

    a: Seattle IS special.
    b: You have to be a freaking genius to notice the RE bubble.
    c: I need to go back to school for another 10 years before I show my face in public.

  85. Analyst at a bank in Seattle.

  86. physician in King County

  87. Now I am starting to second guess my lowly BS in Finance…

  88. Business Analyst, MSFT

  89. Hey AP – fellow singer/actor/writer here! BA in Music with a business minor… gotta earn a buck somehow :)

  90. Business InfoSystems Analysis, standards, development, for a local gov agency. Indie politically.

  91. College prof in Vancouver, BC.

  92. Boeing, Software Engineer

  93. porn star, but thinking about getting into this flipping houses business – it looks really promising…blech….

    actually, I have an eight-word title which is just a fancy way of saying “sales”….

  94. Retired CEO

  95. Owner of a recruiting agency; wife works in marketing for local fortune 500

  96. >b: You have to be a freaking genius to notice the RE bubble.

    If you think this is bad, you should hang out over at http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com. I think almost everyone is worth well over $1M and average age of posters is probably 40-50.

    Replyhttp://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com. I think almost everyone is worth well over $1M and average age of posters is probably 40-50.’,'96′); return false;”>Quote
  97. Biliruben:

    20-40% down on the Eastside in 3-4 years???!!! Oh man, I am pulling for you. And Statistical Analyst is the closest we have to Crystal Ball Engineer in this board. I’ll be sitting on the sidelines!!!!

  98. Microsoft, Lead Program Manager II, adCenter.

  99. code monkey, redmond

    found the pink ponies but it turned out they were an hour away from my job :-)

    So far it’s well worth the drive to come and go from a decent house on a nice acre lot… It’s also a hassle free, traffic free beautiful drive.

  100. Bookseller, retired.

  101. Portland accounting guy (cost, general, IT, reportwriting) from the Bay Area (moved in 1994). I’ve been watching bubbles since I was driven out of the Bay Area by high housing prices. My favorite is Bend, Oregon, which to me has “no visible means of support.”

  102. Independent software developer.

  103. Financial Analyst at random Eastside Corp.

  104. Video game designer.

  105. RSDE, Microsoft

  106. IT Director, software startup, Seattle area

    (own the same home I bought right after September 11th, at below asking. Not planning on moving my family, despite doom and gloom potential)

  107. Aerospace Buyer.

  108. Physician in San Francisco. I just enjoy reading about another ‘bubble-proof’ city. Anyone taking bets on which market will crash first? And which city is MORE special, according to the RE cheerleaders?

  109. Another PM @ Microsoft

  110. Senior Product Designer, Microsoft

  111. blueskitten – BA in Music, too. My other major was history (yes, seriously, no practicality here) … if I could do it again, I’d choose business or engineering. But I’d keep the music part! :)

  112. Wow, there are a lot of new bubbleheads here since I last participated on the site. Sorry for being away, but I have been just way too busy as a hospitality sales and marketing director for a local hotel. which is actually bad news. I have had to spend way too much time trying to get business into the hotel. As strong as the industry was last year and the begining of this year, it has dropped off substantially. The phones have stopped ringing. Not only in this city, but my counterparts in San Diego and Chicago say the exact same thing. In the many, many years that I have been in this industry, I can tell you all this…Hotels are the first economic indicators of things going sour. the first place companies start cutting back when profits aren’t as high are meetings. And beleive me, they are cutting back big time. When MSM finally admits that we are in a recession, you will all now know that it actually started in February of 2007. That is the month things stopped. Period. Like someone flipped a switch. I told my superiors back then and they didn’t listen to me. now they are begining to scratch their heads.

  113. Background in physics & materials science. Currently Chief Cat Herder for a start-up laser power beaming company.

    My wife and I owned a 2-family house near Boston before we moved out here 2.5 years ago (we were lucky that my wife’s job move forced us to sell our house pretty much at the top of the Boston market, although we’d only been in for a few years). So I’ve been a landlord, and we’ve been renting since we moved here.

    I’ve believed in a housing bubble for years, but have been wondering about Seattle not being in synch with the national changes. This blog helps me see the delay in effect between here and national data; I think we’ll keep renting for a couple more years.

  114. Systems Engineer, Boeing. Well, the title says Software Engineer.

    I spent a year doing requirements and interface management on a software team, and then a year coding eight hours a day on a systems team. And now I do system documentation and research under a software design heading on a systems-engineering subteam of a software team.

  115. CPA, large public accounting firm

  116. Identity and Directory Management, AT&T.. About as exciting as watching the Wenatchee Slug Race Festival.

  117. Software Engineer, of course. Retired from WA state consortium of school districts. About to remodel and sell my house (owned 21 yrs), and move my dream 3 acres in the wilds of southern Utah.

  118. I sell and install solar panels in Charlotte NC. Left Seattle last year but it’s hard too look away from the impending train wreck.

  119. I’m temporarily employed before I embark on an epic backpacking quest to drink beer in Western Europe.

    I enjoy statistical evidence for a hypothesized upcoming decrease in the housing market in the Seattle area that has yet to be realized.

  120. Financial institution regulator

  121. Apparently somebody posted under my name, as I was on a camping trip away from the internet when that last comment was posted “from me”…wierd

  122. Lawyer – Vancouver, British Columbia. Who has the worst bubble?

  123. EMT~ I drive an ambulance all around the city and amuse myself at 3am looking at real estate flyers. The truth is better than fiction! :)

  124. Radiology Supervisor — Harborview

    Enjoy all the intelligent comments posted here. It’s nice to see housing prices go down for a change.

  125. Another IT PM here

  126. Sr. Software Engineer – Fluke (I do Firmware!).

  127. Microsoft,electrical engineer

  128. Boeing – Stress Analyst on the 787 Dreamliner

  129. Private IT Consulting Firm – Director

  130. Software developer for Serials Solutions.

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