Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries from January 31st, 2008

Seattle To Get In On Bailout Action

By The Tim on January 31st, 2008 at 9:50 AM · 50 Comments

Looks like the City of Seattle is getting in on some of the home “owner” bailout action.

The City of Seattle is offering a helping hand to homeowners facing foreclosure.

The pilot program would offer $5,000 loans to 40 families.

Wow, $5,000, huh? That will let some overstretched buyer keep making their adjusted-ARM payments for about… six months. After which, they’ll either need to find another sucker to front a loan, or they’ll end up in foreclosure anyway. Or maybe they’ll just take the $5,000 and get in touch with You Walk Away. Cha-ching.

“When a home forecloses on a block, within hours the value of the homes on that block are reduced by $5,000 each,” said Mayor Greg Nickels.

Oh, goodness. We wouldn’t want the value of other homes to go down. That would be terrible, just terrible. It might even lead to… actual, affordable housing! We can’t have that. Gotta have people relying on the government to get them into “affordable” housing.

Bah.

(Lori Matsukawa, King5, 01.30.2008)

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Redfin Flourishing Despite Downturn, Dirty Tricks

By The Tim on January 30th, 2008 at 9:53 AM · 45 Comments

A couple of national outlets have had interesting stories about Redfin in the last few days. Since you’re not likely to read about it in the “we pretend Redfin doesn’t exist” local agent blogs, I thought I’d highlight them here. First up is a New York Times story that claims the bursting of the real estate bubble isn’t stopping Redfin (or Zillow, Terabitz, and Trulia) from growing.

It was late October, and Redfin, an online real estate brokerage firm based in Seattle, had received just three months earlier a $12 million investment led by the marquee venture capital firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson. In the interim, the mortgage industry melted down, foreclosures spiked and housing sales slowed to a crawl. Now, one of Redfin’s biggest markets, Los Angeles, was battling a series of wildfires and Redfin’s sales had stopped cold.

Redfin was not the only victim of bad timing. Venture capitalists poured about $50 million into three other real estate Web sites last year — Zillow, Terabitz and Trulia — only to watch the market enter a historic slide.

Now, although most of the real estate industry wishes it could fast-forward through 2008, these online start-ups are surviving nicely. Each company recently reported strong sales and increases in Web traffic. Trulia surged to the top by the end of 2007, from sixth place in 2006, according to Nielsen Online.

Although these sites are not growing as quickly as they might have during a bullish market, they are at least growing.

“In September, we thought it was maybe the beginning of a very long downturn,” said Glenn Kelman, Redfin’s chief executive. “But for whatever reason, the last few months have been very strong for us.”

The second story, from Forbes, chronicles some of the unique trials Refin has faced as they have positioned themselves as an alternative to traditional brokerages.

Glenn Kelman, Redfin’s chief executive, knew it wouldn’t be easy to shake up the real estate brokerage business. Tradition-minded and protective of their turf, Realtors don’t take kindly to discounters. Still, says Kelman, he scarcely anticipated the dirty tricks aimed at his online discount brokerage.

In southern California Redfin’s for-sale signs are often knocked down, stolen or smashed. In Seattle a traditional Realtor posted Kelman’s address online, and a sturdy Redfin yard sign at his house was soon hacked down. In a national forest near Yosemite National Park someone affixed fake Redfin bumper stickers to signs, trees and rocks to make the company look like a shameless promoter and defiler of the environment. After Redfin staffers removed the stickers, which they have never used to pitch the Seattle company, the trickster started tossing the signs, attached to weights, into branches of sequoias. “I never considered how violent the reaction to us would be and what that would mean to our customers,” says Kelman, 37.

Yikes. If that’s how some of these real estate “professionals” act, I guess I can understand why many of my bubble-blogging counterparts around the country have chosen to remain anonymous.

(Bob Tedeschi, New York Times, 01.28.2008)
(Christopher Steiner, Forbes, 01.2008)

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New Design for Seattle Bubble

By The Tim on January 29th, 2008 at 7:04 PM · 67 Comments

As you may have noticed, I have switched the layout for Seattle Bubble over to a new design. The motivation for this move was to reduce clutter and make the site easier on the eyes.

If you have any problems, comments, compliments, or any other thoughts about the new layout, please air them here, or send me an email.

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Case-Shiller November: Seattle Playing Catch-Up

By The Tim on January 29th, 2008 at 1:00 PM · 64 Comments

Home prices in Seattle continued their slide in November, according to the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Down 1.43% October to November.
Up 1.77% YOY.

That’s the fourth month-to-month decline in a row, and a year-to-year increase of barely more than half of October’s already paltry 3.30%. Here’s the usual graph, with L.A. & San Diego offset from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. I had to re-align the vertical axis, since San Diego is now seeing nearly -15% year-to-year declines. Ouch.

Case-Shiller HPI - West Coast
Click to enlarge

And yet again, here’s all twenty cities tracked by Case-Shiller, with no time-shifting.

Case-Shiller HPI - All Cities
Click to enlarge

Yowzers. It looks like a race to the bottom. But don’t pay attention to all that “doom and gloom” data. Just follow your gut and jump right into an enormous loan on a depreciating asset. You know you want to.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 01.29.2008)

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Gregoire: “The economy is strong. Buy your home.”

By The Tim on January 29th, 2008 at 9:37 AM · 22 Comments

Everybody’s pal Christine Gregoire gave a pep talk to the Washington Realtors last week in which she made some interesting comments.

Gov. Chris Gregoire told about 400 Washington Realtors on Thursday that she has been working to meet goals the group has for transportation, affordable housing, education and quality of life.

Gregoire, who spoke a day after Republican gubernatorial challenger Dino Rossi went before the group, cited a report in Fortune magazine and said the state is a good place to do business. She also offered encouragement for an industry slowed amid recession fears.

“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” Gregoire said, quoting former President Franklin Roosevelt and referring to national recession fears. “It is a very frustrating time, I know, for you, and it is for me. … I’m struggling to get the message out to Washingtonians. The economy is strong. Buy your home.”

From the Associated Press account of the same meeting:

Addressing the politically powerful Washington Realtors, the Democratic governor said she sometimes wishes people wouldn’t watch the evening news because of all the “doomsday” talk of a home mortgage meltdown and a pending recession.

Gregoire said that in actuality, the state economy has seldom been so strong, with record low unemployment, 222,000 new jobs created in the past three years, and national publications praising the business climate here.

She conceded that the national news is having a psychological effect on home buyers, even though there are relatively few mortgage failures here.

“This is a very frustrating time,” the governor said, adding “Our economy is strong — buy your home. … There is no good reason for a slowing of home purchasing in the state of Washington today.”

Now why do you suppose Mrs. Gregoire would promoting the idea that Washington State residents go out there and throw caution to the wind, ignore the warning signs of declining prices, and jump into that real estate market right now? Obviously one likely reason is the usual pandering of politicians telling people what they want to hear. In this case, the people in question are a room full of “professionals” whose income depends on suckers consumers continuing to buy homes all the way down the declining price slope.

I think there may be another reason though. I think Mrs. Gregoire may really be on the Realtors’ side here, not just talking the talk. Here’s a story that appeared in yesterday’s P-I(emphasis mine)

Gov. Chris Gregoire and leading Democrats in the House and Senate have reached one early agreement in this year’s budget negotiations: It’s time for a reality check.

Anticipating a bleak revenue forecast, they’ve agreed to start looking for places to trim the $33 billion budget they passed last year. They say they want to have their priorities in order in case the slowing economy forces them to find efficiencies or even cut programs altogether.

Gone are the halcyon days of a skyrocketing real estate market and a ballooning economy that had led to back-to-back-to-back upward adjustments in the state’s revenue forecasts.

And gone is the free and easy feeling about spending, the unflinching commitment to “targeted investments” that Democrats have enjoyed for the past three years.

Gregoire already has called for frugality this election year and has asked lawmakers to adopt her budget that leaves $1.2 billion unspent.

But her budget also calls for $244 million worth of new spending.

Is it really any surprise that Mrs. Gregoire, who has overseen a 33 percent increase in state spending since taking office (source), would want people to ignore the “doomsday talk” and just buy, buy, buy? What do you suppose has enabled spending to increase by so much? Could it perhaps have been the high-flying home prices and red-hot pace of home sales in 2004-2006 (every one of which puts more money into the state coffers)?

And now Mrs. Gregoire wants us to ignore reality so she and her pals can fund their pet projects. Yeah, that sounds like a great reason to keep this bubble alive. Who’s with me?

(Brad Shannon, The Olympian, 01.25.2008)
(Associated Press, KGW.com, 01.25.2008)
(Chris McGann, Seattle P-I, 01.28.2008)

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Poll: You win a free home anywhere in the Puget Sound area. Where to you choose?

By The Tim on January 28th, 2008 at 9:57 AM · 74 Comments

Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.

You win a free home anywhere in the Puget Sound area. Where to you choose?

  • Downtown Seattle (11%, 54 Votes)
  • North Seattle (Queen Anne, Magnolia, Ballard, etc.) (34%, 164 Votes)
  • West Seattle or South Seattle (4%, 21 Votes)
  • Mercer Island or on Lake Washington (18%, 88 Votes)
  • Eastside (Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond, etc.) (18%, 85 Votes)
  • Far Eastside (Carnation, Fall City, etc.) (2%, 10 Votes)
  • Southside (Renton, Tukwila, Kent, Auburn, etc.) (1%, 6 Votes)
  • South Snohomish County (4%, 17 Votes)
  • North Snohomish or further (2%, 10 Votes)
  • Kitsap County (2%, 11 Votes)
  • Pierce County (1%, 5 Votes)
  • Thurston County (3%, 6 Votes)

Total Voters: 477


This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 02.02.2007.

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