Seattle Bubble

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69 responses so far ↓

• 1 Ken Mott // Feb 29, 2008 at 8:21 am

  Hope this for starters.

  First hotel-condo project in Seattle being put on hold.

  http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004249876_1hotel29.html

• 2 laxtosnoco // Feb 29, 2008 at 8:42 am

  I saw a television ad on the morning news today for the Tacoma-Pierce County Association of REALTORS. Interestingly enough, they were sponsoring the business news segment. I was still a little groggy with sleep, but I swear the ad said something like: even if prices are down a little bit, that means even if you have to sell for less, you can buy for less too!

  It then ended with an exultation to “Get the Facts Straight!”

  What are some of these ‘facts’? (From: http://www.tpcar.org/)

  “Home prices in Washington have increased an average of 8.1 percent since the same time last year.” Really??

  “Why Washington Is Different
  The home market isn’t keeping pace with the growth of the state’s population, which is continuing to increase at 1.8 percent per year.”

• 3 deeplennon // Feb 29, 2008 at 9:00 am

  a-hah! An appeal for votes disguised an open thread!

  Just joshin’ ya.

• 4 AndySeattle // Feb 29, 2008 at 9:01 am

  Listening to the Adam Carolla show this morning and a couple of funny statements come to mind… The show was in Las Vegas and Adam was interviewing George Maloof owner of the Palms. They were chatting about some new project that Maloof is about to complete… A Condo/Hotel.

  Maloof seemed apprehensive about the success, but Adam just said something like (and I’m paraphrasing): “Well heck, real estate always goes up! You’re going to make a killing!”. Maloof’s response was something along the lines of: “Well I hope so…”.

  I love Adam but man… What is this kool-aid that everyone is drinking?

• 5 Ben // Feb 29, 2008 at 9:14 am

  http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime

  A few other bubble / RE sites have had this link (I forget where I saw it originally).

  Redmond, WA is specifically mentioned in the article on page 3.

• 6 deejayoh // Feb 29, 2008 at 9:24 am

  When does that "golly" contest end? I’m getting tired of voting ;-)

• 7 Cougar // Feb 29, 2008 at 9:25 am

  OFF - Open Forum Friday! Starts the weekend OFF to a great start ~ ;)

  RANT - putting toll booths back on the 520 bridge. 520 can’t even handle traffic as is without stopping to pay a toll! Why can’t we bring back the water taxi? Kirkland and Bellevue business owners are seeing less people from Seattle because they don’t want to fight the traffic to shop, now tolls? Do you think that will impact Eastside housing prices?

  RAVE - We won’t have a water shortage this year, you would think our electric bill would reflect that, probably NOT!.

• 8 Jess-Pumpkin // Feb 29, 2008 at 9:50 am

  Hey, a colleague just informed me that she lives a block from the house I bid on and didn’t get this week, and she’s friends with the next-door-neighbor. Turns out the house had, uh, water problems the last two winters. It makes sense now why the upstairs was updated but the basement was still in the 40s. I live to bid another day~~~~

• 9 softwarengineer // Feb 29, 2008 at 9:57 am

  HI TIM: YOU DO GREAT WORK

  I’ve advertised your website all over the WWW and hopefully, I’m getting you many hits too.

  RE: previous blog(s) on household incomes:

  How many of the bloggers averages 3.5-3.6% annual household income increases fro 2000-2007, like the charts from MSM allege?

  You should survey this Tim.

  Here’s a great URL on the anomalous household income figures they feed us and why a 3.6% may just be embedded 401K or retirement promises that could grow or crash, but aren’t really wages:

  Bureau of Economic
  Analysis (BEA) URL:

  http://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2008/01%20January/0108%20_spi_text.pdf

  “…Washington and stock grants
  Washington’s high 3.6 percent growth rate was largely the result of stock grants in the information industry, which boosted that industry’s earnings 45 percent. Evidence has been accumulating over the last several years that these grants are a fairly predictable seasonal matter, and BEA is planning to adopt new seasonal adjustments for that industry for the next quarterly state personal income release. Under a new compensation policy adopted in 2003, Microsoft has been granting large amounts of stock to employees in the third quarter
  of the year. Previously, Microsoft made such grants in the second quarter of the year. The information industry’s strong earnings growth rate in Washington, combined with the industry’s large size in the state, is reflected in the industry’s 2.2-percentage- point contribution to the state’s third-quarter personal income growth rate. In contrast, the information industry contributed a mere 0.1 percentage point to national personal income growth in the third quarter…”

  Hey, you bloggers from MSFT getting big stock options? Or is Bill Gates’ monstrous portion making Seattle’s wage growth look artificially much rosier than it actually is for real estate?

  Another good survey Tim.

• 10 kaleetan // Feb 29, 2008 at 10:45 am

  How about this for an idea…On the sidebar next to inventory, Post the median price of a home when you began this blog and then have running total of your “opportunity cost” .

  For instance, since we are at the Peak your cost might be 100-200K, but as prices begin to fall it should come back to zero( uh huh…right)…Then factor in all the hours you spent researching and blogging about how high prices are and multiply by the minimum wage….Add that to your “opportunity cost”..Then label the total dollar amount… How much equity I would have if I would have just bought a house and not blogged one word.

  200-300K ??

  You have yourself

• 11 Ray Pepper // Feb 29, 2008 at 10:52 am

  A Few Comments:

  1. Anyone see the movie Teeth yet? Is it truly a love Story?

  2. When is the BIG Buffet Dinner sponsored by Bubble? I have about 23 shirts left!

  3. For God Sakes Washington….Go out and LOOK FOR YOUR NEW HOME! But NEVER and I repeat NEVER CALL THE NAME ON THE SIGN!

  (this is my latest attempt at getting people to understand what we do. The 75%
  causes gears to grind in people heads!)

  http://www.500Realty.net

• 12 Lake Hills Renter // Feb 29, 2008 at 11:23 am

  I’m generally a fan of Keith Olberman, but he really comes down on people for not supporting a government bailout of FBs. That’s one where issue I definitely disagree with him.

• 13 vboring // Feb 29, 2008 at 11:24 am

  @Cougar

  yes, electric rates are lower this year in nominal dollars (for SCL customers, anyway), but more for financial reasons than water ones. we’re nearly done cleaning up the debt created by the Ca free market fiasco.

  i have gas heat, though, so my energy bills on a whole are way up, thanks partially to the ongoing Ca “free” market fiasco (most of the new generation in Ca is natural gas, so that helps push our prices up).

• 14 rose-colored-coolaid // Feb 29, 2008 at 11:58 am

  AndySeattle, I also enjoy Adam Carolla on my morning commute. I missed that bit, but it’s not unknown for him to be sarcastic. Just from your paraphrase, my interpretation was Adam noticed the guy was nervous, and said why be nervous this is a slam dunk, and the guy didn’t notice the sarcasm and just kind of went along with it.

• 15 The Tim // Feb 29, 2008 at 12:30 pm

  Ahh, Kaleetan, I have missed you.

  In your absence however, you apparently missed this post. Summary: The change in home prices since I started this blog has little to no bearing on my personal financial situation. Thanks for your concern though.

• 16 Everett_Tom // Feb 29, 2008 at 12:43 pm

  Here’s an interesting link, (sent to me by a Real Estate Agent no less! -> See they aren’t ALL out to get us..)

  http://www.zillow.com/quarterlies/QuarterlyReports.htm?city=Lynnwood,WA&s_cid=emm-2007049ABuzzQuarterCity-cityreportbutton

  It’s got the Zillow Index change over the last year… Many (Most?) are negative numbers for this area.. not new, but another way to look at breaking up the data by region.

  besides.. it’s got a pretty map..

• 17 Olaf // Feb 29, 2008 at 1:19 pm

  Kaleetan reminds me of that stereotypical movie scene in which the hero (investigative journalist, private detective, good-guy spy) is tied to a chair and the villain berates him, “You just HAD to go nosing around, didn’t you? You couldn’t just leave well enough alone! If you’d just bought in and shut up, nobody would be the wiser!” Etc.

  Perhaps Tim may have broken even if he’d bought a house back in ‘05. But only barely — only if price increases quickly recover to keep pace with inflation, which seems unlikely. But think about the good he did for the rest of us — for the commonwealth, so to speak — by doing his research and warning the rest of us off of buying overpriced houses in ‘06 and ‘07.

  Sometimes there’s value in pursuing something bigger than your own, personal profit. I know that idea is anathema to the pure-market capitalists out there, but they’re just soulless money-droids, anyway.

  So on behalf of most people reading this, let me just say, THANK you Tim, for taking the time to do the research and share it.

• 18 Olaf // Feb 29, 2008 at 1:31 pm

  Unrelated item:
  Northrop-Grumman/Airbus just beat Boeing for the Pentagon’s giant contract for the refueling tankers. That effectively ends the manufacture of 767s in Everett… and will ultimately depress even further the number of Boeing employees in this region.

  But don’t worry — Seattle is special. The economy here just goes up, up, up.

• 19 David McManus // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:04 pm

  Heh, yeah I was just about to post that, Olaf. Here’s the link:

  http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004251273_webtankerwin29.html

  Well, WM isn’t sh*t, neither is AMZN or MSFT. Who’s left? Tell me again why we’re special and this recession and housing downturn isn’t going to hit us just as hard as the rest of the country?

  Tim, how about a poll predicting the year we start seeing the billboard “Will the last person to leave Seattle, please turn out the lights?”

• 20 WestSideBilly // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:10 pm

  The voting software Metroblogger is using is garbage. How hard is it to code in a cookie when you vote so people can’t vote 100 times? I think I’ve already voted 10 times in this current one, as it’s always open when I load SB.

• 21 WestSideBilly // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:15 pm

  RANT - putting toll booths back on the 520 bridge. 520 can’t even handle traffic as is without stopping to pay a toll! Why can’t we bring back the water taxi? Kirkland and Bellevue business owners are seeing less people from Seattle because they don’t want to fight the traffic to shop, now tolls? Do you think that will impact Eastside housing prices?

  My impression was that the tolls would only be installed westbound. Shouldn’t affect business. It *will* affect traffic on I90 though. I’ll drive a couple miles out of my way to avoid a $5 toll for the privilege of driving on a congested highway.

  I’m not sure it would affect Eastside housing prices because the effect is essentially equal. If you live on one side and work on the other, you have to pay it once a day. So anyone crossing the lake in the commute is affected. Some people might relocate, effectively reducing the traffic on the bridge, but I don’t think $250-300/year in tolls is enough to justify the costs of buying a new house.

• 22 The Tim // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:19 pm

  …but I don’t think $250-300/year in tolls is enough to justify the costs of buying a new house.

  Ah yes, that’s true. But of course we all know that people don’t think rationally when it comes to decisions involving housing. The psychological effect of paying $5 every time you cross is probably much larger than the actual financial effect.

• 23 WestSideBilly // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:24 pm

  Northrop-Grumman/Airbus just beat Boeing for the Pentagon’s giant contract for the refueling tankers. That effectively ends the manufacture of 767s in Everett… and will ultimately depress even further the number of Boeing employees in this region.

  Unbelievable. I love the Air Farce. Make a very specific request, and choose the entry that least matches the specifications you requested. B-2 bomber, take 2! N-G must have some great insiders at the AF.

• 24 WestSideBilly // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:40 pm

  While I’m at it…

  Tim, since you upgraded the software a few weeks ago, I’ve noticed the site does not refresh as smoothly. I’ll reload the front page and it’ll show new posts, but an inaccurate comment count. F5 will get the comment count correct, but when I view the comments it’ll display the cached comments from my last viewing. The ‘recent blog comments’ has the same issue.

  I haven’t changed anything on my end, though it’s possible my employer changed their cache setting. Anything on your side that may be different?

• 25 WestSideBilly // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:40 pm

  As a perfect example, I just posted that and it’s not displaying - it only shows up through 22. :)

• 26 The Tim // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:45 pm

  Hmm, I haven’t noticed any differences… When you say “since you upgraded the software a few weeks ago,” do you mean when the whole look of the site changed? I did upgrade to the latest version of WordPress, but I don’t think that should have affected the caching.

  Has anyone else noticed similar problems?

• 27 David McManus // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:54 pm

  I posted a comment and it didn’t even show up. it would probably have been #19.

• 28 TJ_98370 // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:56 pm

  I’ve noticed that sometimes a comment will be displayed on the “Recent Blog Comments”, but when I click on it or scroll down the comments to where that comment is supposed to be – it hasn’t been posted yet. This happens maybe 5% to 10% of the time.

• 29 TJ_98370 // Feb 29, 2008 at 2:57 pm

  My favorite recent quote:

  “A year ago it was no borrower left behind. Now it’s no borrower is getting on the train.”
  - Adam Levin, president of Credit.com.

• 30 The Tim // Feb 29, 2008 at 3:00 pm

  I posted a comment and it didn’t even show up. it would probably have been #19.

  That one has a simple explanation: it got mistakenly caught by the spam filter. I have de-spammed it, and it now appears in its rightful place at #19. Sometimes that happens to legitimate comments. I usually scan the spam filter a couple times a day to fish out any mistakenly flagged comments like that.

• 31 WestSideBilly // Feb 29, 2008 at 3:37 pm

  Tim, I’ll be honest and say I don’t know exactly when it started. I’ve only noticed this in the past few weeks. It could have been the site upgrade, which I guess was more than a couple weeks ago. It’s not a huge deal, but it’s an extra click about 1 out of 3 times I open a page.

• 32 Alan // Feb 29, 2008 at 5:07 pm

  The change in home prices since I started this blog has little to no bearing on my personal financial situation. Thanks for your concern though.

  Come on, Tim. Tell the truth. Hasn’t your rent increased in the triple digit percentage range over the past year?

• 33 Cougar // Feb 29, 2008 at 5:21 pm

  WSB -
  I just happen to be old enough to remember having to pay a toll on the 520 that ended in 1979. Traffic was a problem then and will become a nightmare now. I commuted from Redmond to Seattle and called it quits last year. Riding Metro the commute time varied from 35 minutes to 90 minutes. With the estimated $4.38 billion required to replace this aging 1963 bridge we will have 1) a toll for many years, 2) a tax hike. For many, the quality of life sitting in traffic and having to pay $5+ may be the turning point for increased housing inventory on the Eastside. Traffic is already at a stand still on Lake City Way and the great gridlock of I 90 and 405 is no better. I now peacefully work from home and my blood pressure has lowered dramatically! I am in vote for a water taxi but there isn’t any budget left because “funds” have been earmarked for this bridge courtesy of our governor.

• 34 WestSideBilly // Feb 29, 2008 at 5:54 pm

  Tim, just to add to my comments above…

  From time to time when I load the comments page, my name and e-mail are no longer remembered. I’m starting to think this may be a cookie issue, but not sure if it’s on my end or what’s going on. This never happened with the old software and I rarely experience cookie issues with the other sites I visit.

• 35 Garth // Feb 29, 2008 at 5:55 pm

  Tim’s plan sounds so good, until you realize he can do it because he has free rent, it is a little harder when you have to pay. :)

  http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2008/02/06/time-for-an-announcement-or-whats-with-the-ads/

• 36 s.data // Feb 29, 2008 at 6:01 pm

  CRACK!…listen, it’s the sound of a condo market about to collapse…or so I hope.

  I’ve been tracking listings at Mosler Lofts (condos) in Belltown and I’ve been amazed at the number or units for sale (+-24) but absolutely no change in prices. Well, two units were re-listed as new, but are actually price reductions! Don’t get me wrong, I wouldn’t buy at these prices, but I’ve been waiting for signs of change and I’m hoping this will be a trend.

  Unit 407 - originally mls27200718 listed at $349,950…now new and improved MLS 28034138 for $329,950

  Unit 611 originally listed at 398,000 now 375,000

• 37 WestSideBilly // Feb 29, 2008 at 6:04 pm

  WSB -
  I just happen to be old enough to remember having to pay a toll on the 520 that ended in 1979. Traffic was a problem then and will become a nightmare now. I commuted from Redmond to Seattle and called it quits last year. Riding Metro the commute time varied from 35 minutes to 90 minutes. With the estimated $4.38 billion required to replace this aging 1963 bridge we will have 1) a toll for many years, 2) a tax hike. For many, the quality of life sitting in traffic and having to pay $5+ may be the turning point for increased housing inventory on the Eastside. Traffic is already at a stand still on Lake City Way and the great gridlock of I 90 and 405 is no better. I now peacefully work from home and my blood pressure has lowered dramatically! I am in vote for a water taxi but there isn’t any budget left because “funds” have been earmarked for this bridge courtesy of our governor.

  I spent a lot of time in Chicago the last 6 years, which has more toll ways than any other city as far as I know. They suck. Chicago has gone to “open road tolling” so if you have one of their transponders you don’t have to stop, similar to what WA-DOT is using on the Tacoma Narrows bridge. I hate traditional tolls mainly because they create congestion, but they do pay for a lot of roadwork without a general tax hike. If 520 adds open road tolling, I don’t see it making congestion any worse than it already is, which admittedly is pretty "golly" bad.

  I love Seattle but my #1 pet peeve about this whole area is everyone refuses to acknowledge that the entire transportation infrastructure here is trashed and pony up for it. We’re going to have to have tolls because for some reason you can’t have a tax here without a general vote. And who’s going to vote for increasing their own taxes? I envision that eventually both the 520 and I-90 bridge will be toll, I-5 will have tolls, I-405 will have tolls, 99 will have tolls (to pay for a new Viaduct), etc.

  IMO, ferries across the lake are not a great solution. How many cars do they really take out of the loop and at what cost?

• 38 WestSideBilly // Feb 29, 2008 at 6:06 pm

  s.data - what’s the threshold where you would consider buying?

• 39 Ira Sacharoff // Feb 29, 2008 at 6:09 pm

  There are plans in the works for a lot more foot passenger ferries, even across Lake WA…King County has formed it’s own Ferry District..Will it solve traffic problems? No, but that’s not the point. The point is that it gives people options o that they don’t have to personally drive in the traffic.

  On another note, I too have noticed that at least one thing I posted never appeared. I figured that it was karma for thinking I was being cool and clever.

• 40 s.data // Feb 29, 2008 at 6:28 pm

  WSB -

  ya know, I really don’t know the answer to that. I currently have a relatively affordable rent in the same neighborhood, and I’m able to save towards a pretty decent down payment. I don’t want to pay 3x my current rent for the same lousy 600 sq ft. I’m committed to looking at the end of the year…If I can get to the point where I feel like I’m trading up, and not completely getting ripped off, then I’ll pull the trigger.

  I look around and think, why would anyone buy at these prices. I’d like someone to answer that one.

• 41 Cougar // Feb 29, 2008 at 7:02 pm

  Hi Ira,

  It’s called the King County Ferry District. Unfortunately the Eastside is at the bottom of their list as follows:

  * Passenger-only ferry service linking downtown Seattle with Vashon Island. Washington State Ferries currently operates the Vashon passenger-only ferry, but the Legislature in 2006 voted to end state funding for passenger-only ferries on June 30, 2007. The Legislature agreed to extend the Vashon service if King County would assume financial responsibility for the Vashon ferry by July 1, 2008, and assume full operation of the route in July 2009.
  * Year-round operation of the Elliott Bay Water Taxi linking downtown and West Seattle, starting by 2010.
  * Five future demonstration routes linking Seattle with the local shoreline communities of Kirkland/Eastside, Kenmore/North Lake Washington, Shilshole/North Puget Sound, Renton/South Lake Washington, and Des Moines/South Puget Sound, with funding sufficient to turn successful demonstrations into permanent routes.
  We won’t see this happen for many years to come if at all. I would predict a toll on I 90 as WSB said before the water taxi get’s underway.

• 42 Denny Retrograde // Feb 29, 2008 at 9:42 pm

  The Seattle Condos & Lofts blog estimates Hotel 1 lost 80 out of 100 unit reservations since September. Hotel 1 developer Paul Brenneke is quoted to the effect that fear of the housing downturn’s acceleration has kept him from even trying to get a construction loan at this point.. A giant hole in the ground along Second Avenue from Stewart to Pine, and the owner’s scared to build on it. Maybe a nice municipal swimming pool?

• 43 Angie // Mar 1, 2008 at 7:32 am

  Yeah, that Air Force order is really bad news. Good grief.

  So, we’re in the home stretch of refinancing our house (sign papers next week). It’s been an interesting experience to say the least, and since the mortgage industry and lending practices are of interest to the assembled, I thought I’d throw out some observations and anecdata.

  By way of background, my husband and I have bought a couple of houses and been through a couple of refinances, so we have a little bit of experience in this sort of thing and have had business dealings with several different lenders. This experience was completely unlike anything we’ve done before.

  We chose this lender because of their low rate (obviously), and they proudly advertise their low fees as well. What we didn’t realize at the outset, but which seems clear now, is that they’re saving money on customer service. We never met a bank employee face to face; we applied online, spoke to customer service agents by phone, and had a few email transactions. Phone calls to the general customer service line had hold times of 15 minutes and more; messages to the processor’s direct line were never returned (well, once, out of several attempts to make phone contact.)

  In fairness, we acted when the rates were super-low in late January, and I understand that brought in a flood of business. Part of that lack of responsiveness may be due to an unusually high workload. But even so, it was incredibly nerve-wracking for this huge, time-sensitive process to be so opaque, and for it to be so hard to get information.

  Doing it all “online and hands off” has other consequences, too. Mortgage fraud is clearly a hot topic as the subprime mess has come undone. I’m amazed that lenders are choosing to be so incredibly hands off in the aftermath. We are honest as the day is long (of course!) and have full documentation, but I imagine it’s a million times easier to give fake data when the process is all on line.

  The flip side of that is that it’s INCREDIBLY unnerving to be sending off our most sensitive financial information to web sites, email accounts, and random fax numbers, without knowing who the hell is on the other end. The lender we chose to work with is a well-established institution in the area, but that’s no guarantee that someone isnt’ spoofing their site or something. I worry that if this is becoming the new “industry standard”, it’s going to open the door to a ton of consumer fraud, if it hasn’t already.

  Another consequence: missing a few things in the application process. Again, we applied online, on our own, from our own living room. We’ve been through this a few times, but there were a few questions that we misjudged in the application process, and those had some consequences. For instance, when supplying info about our finances, there were questions about our retirement savings. We dutifully supplied it, and lo and behold, this was interpreted as meaning that we’d be taking money *out* of those accounts for a down payment–which we had no intention of doing. Also, there was no entry to indicate that we wanted to pay our insurance and taxes out of pocket, rather than through escrow. We had to press that point ourselves and with the communication problems described above I was never totally certain that message would get through (though thankfully, it seems to have worked.)

  Another example: we somewhat misjudged the payoff amount for our old mortgage. We entered a ballpark figure that we thought was “about right”, and expected that this would be adjusted to the exact amount when the details came into focus. (This amount changes depending on the day of payoff and how much interest accrues since the last payment.) That’s been standard operating procedure in our past refinances. This time? Nope. Our guess was off by ~$1000, which we need to provide in cash at closing. That’s not going to sink us, but I can easily imagine a situation where a naive borrower’s lack of information, or a simple slip of the finger, could really screw someone over, without detailed, critical oversight.

  When the dust clears, I’m hoping we’ll slip into a comfortable routine of automatic payments and everyone will live happily ever after. But the process of getting there…not so fun.

• 44 Ira Sacharoff // Mar 1, 2008 at 9:05 am

  So Angie, if you were to do this again, would you be more inclined to pay a bit more and have more ease of mind dealing with a lender you could actually see, or one who had better customer service?

• 45 david losh // Mar 1, 2008 at 9:07 am

  Just when I was thinking there was nothing here of interest Angie points out one of my pet peeves about internet based business models. I don’t buy Amozon books because they can turn out to be crap when I get them. The same for clothing, or shoes which I do buy on line because stores no longer carry a full selection. My wife and I travel so we have used the expedia mess only to be repeatedly disappointed.
  When it comes to homes and mortgages it’s a little harder to return the bad product. For many years I did use an eloan mortgage processor. It just made sense. She did live on Mercer Island so we could fix things readily. I had been working with her about two or three years before we met. She was a large woman who chain smoked in a big house with her dogs. Elending suited her perfectly; my rates were low, the fees transparent, and closing was quick.
  In the mortgage business all available programs are now listed on line. It seems simple. In fact a child should be able to make a loan to you, and in many cases that is exactly the case. Cheap labor can hide in any online business. Mortgages change daily. As Angie points out there are some time sensitive issue. Information that should be double or triple checked can get lost.
  It all seems or looks so easy. Why can’t it just work out? Why don’t people just do thier jobs and close a loan? I don’t know, but the investor makes money either way.

• 46 The Dude Abides // Mar 1, 2008 at 9:16 am

  Hi folks.
  I am a full time investor and can probably be accused of being a patriot…but in the same week, he EU fines Microsoft $1.5 bil and we give Airbus a potentially $150bil contract. Well done USA. I do not own BA, NG or MSFT. This upsets me.

• 47 local Realitor // Mar 1, 2008 at 9:33 am

  David Losh: I really cant understand at least half of what you post on this blog. I really cant. Btw, we LOVE Amazon. Both the books and the stock.

  Keep rambling.

• 48 Herman // Mar 1, 2008 at 9:47 am

  I check listings every day. I’m really starting to see some price erosion in Seattle. It’s like going back in time. I just saw a SFH drop to $299k near the junction in west seattle. Last Fall there weren’t any under $400k!

  And a house in Queen Anne has gone from $919k to $795k over eight months.

  Finally.

• 49 Ray Pepper // Mar 1, 2008 at 11:40 am

  OPEN THREAD STILL? GOOD!!

  ****500 Realty News ALERT!!****

  We are in negotiations for a building in Tukwila……..

  Everyone lets get together now and clap….”500 Realty is coming to town…Sing with me…. Hi Ho the Merry OH…………..

  Best part….. The NEW 500 Realty T SHIRT will be passed out at our Grand Opening in August……Set time aside………Mark your calendars… Hot Dogs for everyone!…….

  Follow the search Lights!

  Ray Pepper
  Broker
  http://www.500Realty.net

• 50 david losh // Mar 1, 2008 at 1:04 pm

  Do you really love Amozon? Of course it’s an industry standard. Cheap books is what the consumers want. I used to buy books and keep them on a shelf, lend them out, or give them away.
  To me cars, books, clothing, or shoes have become more and more disposible so I don’t keep things much any more.
  Mortgages have also gotten to be kind of the same thing. There was a Mortgage guy who commented on this blog that he was proud of the fact he hadn’t done a neg am ARM or was it ARMs in general. I don’t know, but I had six ARMs between 2004 tp 2006. It’s a part of the Real Estate business.
  I also noticed that when I clicked on the Mortgage guys link it was a capture site requesting information. He’s a smart guy. Once you give your information to him, he owns it. Now let me ask you what’s more valuable, his loan, or your information? How many businesses can use your information? What can we sell you today? Why are you looking for a loan?
  My ramblings or short comments are all about the internet business. I was told that if I wanted a career in Real Estate I had to blog, so I’m here to learn. Many of the people who come to this blog advocate internet Real Estate business models such as rodfun. Eloan, Etrade, Esurance, all make money by the ease of the internet. Who do these businesses benefit? Is it for the consumer, or investor? Yet we love Amozon, because we get less service, lower quality, and pay reatail for the convenience.

• 51 Gary // Mar 1, 2008 at 1:13 pm

  You know Ray, I have been definitely amused by you and, I have to hand it to you for having such tenacity.
  Especially when you are regularly poked at here.
  I think I just may have to take you up on that offer for the hot dog.

• 52 matthew // Mar 1, 2008 at 2:30 pm

  S.data-

  I am also tracking prices and inventory in Belltown. Inventory as of 2 weeks ago in my zip code (98121 - according to redfin) was 195 units. Last week it was up to 203. Yesterday it was 210. As of right now it appears to be at 208. I’m also noticing units that have been lingering on the market for 100+ days. Doesn’t appear like much is selling, and people that can’t sell appear to be just pulling their units off the MLS.

  Going to be interesting to see what happens this spring/summer.

• 53 Angie // Mar 1, 2008 at 2:59 pm

  Ira, that’s a good question. Long story short, we’ve made that choice in the past. We’ve had commercial banks as lenders that were either incompetent or transparently out to screw us at every turn; we got away from them to a credit union with competetive but not rock-bottom rates that has terrific customer service.

  This refi is from one CU to the other and I fear that my idea that all CUs are customer-oriented is being proven wrong. Hopefully my faith will be restored in the end. No matter what, I’m glad that my loan won’t be sold hither and yon and the money will stay in Washington State to fund other Washingtonians, which is another feature of CUs. The mortgages on our houses are now 5.00% and 5.25%, so hopefully we won’t need to refinance them anytime soon!

  The thing that gets me is, my husband and I are number geeks, I’m on top of our financial details like white on rice, and I’m very good about being persistent and getting stuff done through crazy bureaucracy. If we had such a crazymaking experience, I worry about the average Joe and Jane on the street who may not be so detail-oriented and tenacious.

• 54 Ouch // Mar 1, 2008 at 6:15 pm

  Losh-
  I also like Amazon. I even know how to spell it. However, like Local Realitor says, keep rambling. Gosh, I miss old Shug…

• 55 Jimmythev // Mar 1, 2008 at 7:12 pm

  So, I saw this pop up on Redfin today… do you think this is a joke, typo, or is someone actualy serious on the price/sqf…

  http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1520427

• 56 stephen // Mar 1, 2008 at 7:26 pm

  Hang in there David, not everybody here is an ass…

• 57 stephen // Mar 1, 2008 at 7:29 pm

  Based on the kitchen size I would guess typo…

• 58 Ira Sacharoff // Mar 1, 2008 at 8:21 pm

  jimmythev,
  I’ll look it up on the MLS later, but it’s 284? square feet, and they describe it as a spacious one bedroom?

• 59 Dave Greene // Mar 1, 2008 at 9:33 pm

  ok ok..Dr. Pepper..I’m sold. When its time you got me. Visited and like the offering. I could care less about the shirts or the hot dogs.

  Red Fin who? Better be ready when I call.

• 60 EconE // Mar 1, 2008 at 9:49 pm

  Jimmythev

  KC records says that unit at QAHS is 686 sf.

• 61 EconE // Mar 1, 2008 at 9:50 pm

  and I wouldn’t describe 686sf as exceptionally “spacious” unless I was in Manhattan or Tokyo but that’s just one persons opinion.

• 62 b // Mar 1, 2008 at 11:15 pm

  EconE -

  haven’t you heard? seattle IS the next new york or tokyo, and we have the prices to prove it. now if only we had the jobs, density, culture and status as those cities…

• 63 Markor // Mar 2, 2008 at 10:05 am

  So, I saw this pop up on Redfin today… do you think this is a joke, typo, or is someone actualy serious on the price/sqf…

  Typo. I used to live in that bldg, on the fifth floor, great view. No fancy kitchen like now, but it was “only” $700/mo then. They’ve kept the single-pane windows & frames, which howl in the winter wind (which the top of Queen Anne gets). On the plus side, I had super-cheap electric (heat) bills. The outside walls are about 8″ thick.

• 64 Dr. Kenneth Noisewater // Mar 3, 2008 at 10:30 am

  http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/03/03/seattle.fire/index.html

  Talk about a lucky break for folks with deposits on those monsters!!

• 65 david losh // Mar 3, 2008 at 11:16 am

  Sure, I know how to spell AmoZon and rodfun. You’re forgetting the purpose of this blog; it’s internet business. We’re talking about internet based business models. rodfun, the pepper, as opposed to people who work in traditional business models. In this case it was a person talking about getting a loan on line. This was a service I used for some time until it became obvious that the people running these types of boiler room operations don’t care, don’t have to.
  While talking about the transparency, or saved fees, or other good things I personally believe we all pay top dollar for the internet experience. That experience includes, but is not limited to, shared information about your buying habits, reading material, interests, and hot buttons. These are then used by larger companies to target your purchasing preferences.
  For books that may be OK, there is a sucker born every minute, for loans and homes grave financial consequences may be attached.

• 66 s.data // Mar 3, 2008 at 1:15 pm

  Markor,

  That is the newly converted Queen Anne High School…I think you’ve got the wrong building.

• 67 WestSideBilly // Mar 4, 2008 at 10:03 am

  So, I saw this pop up on Redfin today… do you think this is a joke, typo, or is someone actualy serious on the price/sqf…

  http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/printable-listing?listing-id=1520427

  Whatever building it is, the sq footage has to be a typo. 686 sq ft makes it $500/sq ft, which while still high, isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibility for QA. 284 sq ft is 14′ x 20′, which is about the size of a bathroom and small kitchen.

• 68 Markor // Mar 4, 2008 at 10:08 am

  That is the newly converted Queen Anne High School…I think you’ve got the wrong building.

  No, it used to be apartments.

• 69 WestSideBilly // Mar 4, 2008 at 4:43 pm

  Per the QAHS Condo’s own website, they were apartments from 1986 until 2006.

  http://www.queenannehigh.com/newsroom.html

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