Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries from March 31st, 2009

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Just Shy of 20% off Peak

By The Tim on March 31st, 2009 at 6:15 AM · 128 Comments

[Special Announcement]
On Monday April 27th at 1:00pm, Robert Shiller (the Shiller in Case-Shiller) will be giving a lecture at Seattle Pacific University. The event is free and open to the public. More information on the SPU website. For those unable to attend, I will be taking notes and will most likely make a post about the event later that evening.

Let’s make our regularly scheduled monthly check on the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to January data,

Down 3.6% December to January.
Down 15.0% YOY.
Down 19.7% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices fell 1.8% from December to January and year-over-year prices were down 1.25%.

Here’s the usual graph, with L.A. & San Diego offset from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. Portland turned in a smaller YOY loss than Seattle for the second month in a row. The YOY decline in Los Angeles continued the upward trend that began with November’s data, while San Diego turned back down slightly.

Case-Shiller HPI: West Coast

Note: This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only.

Here’s the graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities:

Case-Shiller HPI: All Cities

In January, eight of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops than Seattle (the same number as December). Dallas at -4.9%, Denver at -5.2%, Cleveland at -5.2%, Boston at -7.3%, Charlotte at -8.2%, New York at -9.6%, Atlanta at -13.9%, and Portland at -14.0%. Phoenix had the largest year-over-year drop yet again, with prices falling 35% in a single year.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the eighteen months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined just shy of 20%. The Seattle’s price decline continued to come in slightly worse than Phoenix and Tampa were this far from their respective peaks, but slightly better than Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and Miami.

Here’s the “rewind” chart. The horizontal range is selected to go back just far enough to find the last time that Seattle’s HPI was as low as it is now. This gives us a clean visual of just how far back prices have retreated in terms of months.

Case-Shiller HPI: Seattle Price Reversion

Seattle’s Case-Shiller value for January 2009 of 154.37 came in just above its July 2005 value of 154.11. Prices have now “rewound” three and a half years.

Coverage elsewhere:
Seattle Times: Report: Home prices slip in Seattle, but plunge in other parts of U.S.
Seattle P-I: Seattle-area prices back to July 2005 levels

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 03.31.2009)

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February Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update

By The Tim on March 30th, 2009 at 5:01 PM · No Comments

[Note: I apologize again for the tardiness of this regularly-scheduled set of charts. Same story as this month's Around the Sound update—working on a cool new feature that wasn't quite ready this month.]

Here’s your look at February’s “Months of Supply” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Also, view a map of these areas here.

February MOS for King County as a whole dipped slightly down to 7.54 (compared to 6.14 for February 2008). The record run of 6+ MOS is now eighteen months. Recall that the previous record was around 6 months in the winter of ‘94-’95.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the thirteen-month period of February 2008 through February 2009. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). The charts all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. It is also important to remember that whatever the reason, over twenty-five percent of pending sales are not making it to closing, which means that these statistics are likely understating the magnitude of the “buyer’s market.”

We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. February 2008 is in red, and 2009 is in blue.

KC SFH MOS: February '08 & February '09

Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.

[Read more →]

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News Roundup: Local Banks on the Brink

By The Tim on March 30th, 2009 at 1:00 PM · 6 Comments

The last few days have seen a handful of articles in the local press on the subject of the strength (or lack thereof, as it turns out) of local banks. Here’s a brief summary.

First-up is a relatively in-depth look at the status of dozens of banks based in Washington State: Washington’s banks under stress

…several of Washington’s community banks also are clearly straining under the weight of the crisis, a Seattle Times analysis shows.

At least a dozen of the 52 Washington-based banks examined are carrying heavy loads of past-due loans, defaults and foreclosed properties relative to their financial resources. Many of these banks have set aside relatively little cash to cover problem loans, the analysis shows.

And even the relatively healthy banks are under more pressure than they were a year ago.

…at most community banks, residential mortgages were a relatively small part of their business. Instead, their troubles are tied directly to their heavy dependence on real-estate loans — mainly loans to local builders and developers.

“Many community banks found that (construction and development loans) was an area in which they could compete effectively against the big banks,” Frontier’s Fahey said.

At Frontier Bank, for example, construction and development loans made up 44.5 percent of all assets at year’s end. City Bank had 53.3 percent of its assets in such loans, and at Seattle Bank (until recently Seattle Savings Bank), they constituted a full 54.2 percent of total assets.

Such loans looked safe and generated big profits during the housing boom. But since the housing market began to crater in late 2007, defaults on such loans have soared industrywide.

We know that it will likely take between two and eight years to work through King County’s housing oversupply. In the mean time, small builders—and by extension the local banks that loaned them money—are going to be experiencing some tough times.

Next up, the Olympian brings news of some even more serious news for Lacey-based Venture Bank: Venture Bank faces financial deadline

Federal regulators have ordered Venture Bank to raise more capital or find a buyer by next month because of concerns about its financial health.

In a letter dated Feb. 13 but disclosed on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Web site Friday, the FDIC notified the bank that it has 60 days to raise more money, find a buyer or find a merger partner. The 60-day period ends April 14.

Meanwhile, Federal Home Loan Bank of Seattle reported a loss of $241 million in the fourth quarter 2008: Federal Home Loan Bank of Seattle reports losses

And finally, the Seattle Times front page story today focuses in on the impact of the job losses at WaMu’s former downtown headquarters: Layoff aftershocks hit WaMu neighborhood

So is there any good economic news out there for Seattle and Washington State? Well, not really on the banking front, but Amazon is still pretty profitable, and hey, at least we’re not Cleveland, right?

(Drew DeSilver, Seattle Times, 03.29.2009)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 03.29.2009)
(Seattle Times, 03.30.2009)
(Marc Ramirez, Seattle Times, 03.30.2009)

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Some Brief Thoughts on the New Car Tax Break

By The Tim on March 30th, 2009 at 9:53 AM · 36 Comments

Just a quick comment on one aspect of Obama’s just-announced plan to “see the auto industry through these difficult times.” I’ll keep this brief since it has little to do with either real estate or the Seattle area.

Here’s a portion of the president’s speech:

…the IRS is today launching a campaign to alert consumers of a new tax benefit for auto purchases made between February 16th and the end of this year – if you buy a car anytime this year, you may be able to deduct the cost of any sales and excise taxes. This provision could save families hundreds of dollars and lead to as many as 100,000 new car sales.

[Clarification: Obama is referring to the tax break for any new car purchase (not just American-made cars) that was passed as a part of February's "stimulus" bill.]

Let’s just say that hypothetically I’m in the market for a car. For the purposes of this example, we’ll choose a fuel-efficient, American made branded car: the Chevrolet Aveo.

I have two choices:

  1. Buy a new 2009 Aveo, priced at local dealers between $11,000 and $17,000. I get to deduct up to about $1,700 in taxes from my taxable income, and save approximately $425 on my 2009 taxes (at the most).
  2. Buy a used 2007 or 2008 Aveo, priced at local dealers between $9,000 and $10,000. Save $1,000 to $8,000 compared to buying new.

Tough choice, isn’t it? Maybe someone can explain to me how this program is supposed to convince even one person that now is a great time to buy a new car.

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Monday Open Thread (2009-03-30)

By The Tim on March 30th, 2009 at 12:00 AM · 47 Comments

Here is your open thread for Monday March 30th, 2009. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.

Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!

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Poll: Where will 30-year mortgage interest rates be a year from now?

By The Tim on March 29th, 2009 at 12:05 AM · 10 Comments

Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.

Where will 30-year mortgage interest rates be a year from now?

  • <4% (8%, 22 Votes)
  • 4% - <5% (27%, 69 Votes)
  • 5% - <6% (36%, 94 Votes)
  • 6% - <7% (14%, 36 Votes)
  • 7% - <8% (3%, 8 Votes)
  • 8% + (12%, 11 Votes)

Total Voters: 259


This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 04.04.2009.

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