Here is your open thread for the mid-week on July 1st, 2009. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.
Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 1, 2009 at 6:29 am
We’re currently over 1,400 for June (King County SFR) and agents still have until the third to report their June 30th sales, so 1,500 isn’t out of the question. But not 2,000–the banks didn’t unleash a flood of short sales this month. I doubt they ever will.
Vague reference to a number from NWMLS sources, but not compiled or guaranteed by the NWMLS.
Oh, another number. Almost 40% of the listings that sold obtained an offer within 30 days. That’s up.
The Tim » Jul 1, 2009 at 6:51 am
Thanks for the update, Kary. Given the post-end-of-month bump we saw last month (a roughly 20% jump from the morning of the 1st to the reported #s on the 4th), we may even hit 1,700 for the month. I’d put that at the high end of the estimate though.
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 1, 2009 at 7:09 am
RE: The Tim @ 2 – I’d agree, and probably understated it by saying 1,500 isn’t “out of the question.” I’d think that somewhat likely, but 1,600 or 1,700 fairly unlikely but possible.
It’s always hard to predict how slow agents are in entering data.
Trigger » Jul 1, 2009 at 7:56 am
I looked at the Case Shiller reports on San Diego vs Seattle. It looks that prices in Seattle did not shoot up as much as in San Diego and now will likely not climb down as much as in San Diego. So we are close to the bottom? Maybe another 10% price correction and then it will stay flat for some longer time?
Gerald » Jul 1, 2009 at 7:57 am
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 3 – What happens if the agents don’t report on time? Penalties? If no penalties, does the data show higher than normal sales for the following few days (4th, 5th, 6th) when the laziest agents finally submit the data?
patient » Jul 1, 2009 at 8:19 am
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 3 – Kary, can you easily pull time from pending to closing in the numbers similar to how you see time from listing to offer? It would be interresting to see how many closed within 30 days. If we reach 1700 closings ( which btw is a pretty average number for January the last decade… ) we have closed ~4000 of the ~6000 pendings reported since March. The big question that remians is if this mainly a backlog or failed sales.
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 1, 2009 at 8:24 am
Gerald, I’ve never seen an agent penalized for being late, but I have seen them penalized where they never updated.
patient, I can’t easily tell how many closed within 30 days. I’d have to look at each one.
Scotsman » Jul 1, 2009 at 9:06 am
“WASHINGTON (AFP) – The US private sector shed 473,000 jobs in June to cope with a prolonged recession, a survey by payrolls firm ADP showed Wednesday with a warning that unemployment will rise for several more months.
The June job cuts were worse than the 395,000 expected by most analysts but lower than 485,000 in May, which was revised from the previous 532,000 figure.
Monthly employment losses in April, May, and June averaged 492,000, a notable improvement over the first three months of the year, when monthly losses averaged 691,000, according to the ADP National Employment Report.”
softwarengineer » Jul 1, 2009 at 11:29 am
RE: Scotsman @ 8 –
THE COUNTRY’S EMPLOYMENT BASE IS STILL ABOUT 75% INTACT
With unemployment termites still gobbling it up and no end in sight.
Should be good news for some stocks, dividends should be short-term higher with less salary mouths to feed; until the whole house of cards collapses with consumer confidence in the toilet.
Joel » Jul 1, 2009 at 12:00 pm
May San Diego Home Sales Increase Revised From 89% to 6.5%
[emphasis mine]
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 1, 2009 at 12:12 pm
RE: Joel @ 10 – I wonder how this will affect the analysis of those that think Seattle is X months behind SD? ;-)
softwarengineer » Jul 1, 2009 at 12:16 pm
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11 –
MAYBE THEY’RE BUYING HOMES IN CALIFORNIA WITH IOUS?
Sure beats mortgage payments. LOL
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090701/us_nm/us_economy_california_budget
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 1, 2009 at 12:36 pm
Per Aubrey, the 125% refinancing thing went through.
http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestatenews/archives/172722.asp#extended
More old loans will be on their way out.
patient » Jul 1, 2009 at 2:00 pm
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 13 – This will really put the jingle mail tendency to it’s test, how many home owners are interrested in keeping severly under water homes. Now when the option to keep it becomes available to more owners the choice will be open for many more. Only time will tell, mortgage applications the next couple of months will be a good measure.
Joel » Jul 1, 2009 at 2:55 pm
By Kary L. Krismer @ 11:
Yeah, there was at least one guy here that figured we would be bottoming next year because the he believed the stats showed that SD was bottoming right now.
jon » Jul 1, 2009 at 3:18 pm
By Joel @ 15:
The fact that California will be paying businesses in scrip tomorrow is going to do severe damage to the economy down there. With cuts in education, etc, there will be a lot of people who want to leave that state and not many who will want to go there. That, and the fact that the alt-A and option ARM mortgages are concentrated there tell me that it will be a nice place to visit but not to own. Renting if you don’t have kids might be OK, but don’t under-withhold on your taxes.
Scotsman » Jul 1, 2009 at 6:08 pm
Wow- take a look a the number of states with significant budget shortfalls. Neither budget cutbacks or increased taxes will help our fragile economy. Some of these numbers are staggering, especially in the SW, and WA isn’t looking all that strong either.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090701/ap_on_re_us/us_state_budgets
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 1, 2009 at 9:53 pm
RE: Scotsman @ 17 – I’m not so sure that’s correct information. I know revenue forecasts in WA have been revised downward, but I don’t think it’s so much that the shortfall is 20-30%. That is probably old information from before the session.
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 2, 2009 at 8:06 am
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 1 – Just to update, we are over 1,500 now.
One Eyed Man » Jul 2, 2009 at 9:03 am
Just to stir the pot of green shoot soup that doesn’t seem big enough to feed the bread line, did anyone hear one of the CNBC talking heads say that the rent vs. own numbers are now within a couple hundred dollars of equalizing in Phoenix? They never said who cranked the numbers and they didn’t give enough info to check the math, but I find that interesting. Of course, there’s no profit motive to own anything other than cash in a deflationary cycle if, in fact, we get sustained deflation rather than stagflation. But I’m sure the small investors have to be starting to sniff around in Phoenix.
Ray, are you hearing anything more about the investor market after you’re trip down there earlier this spring?
The CSI for Phoenix is now back to the July 2000 level of 104, down from a peak of 227 in June/July 2006. That’s approaching Sniglet territory, and the Phoenix CSI is still dropping. I would assume summer probably isn’t the best time to market a house in Phoenix. Never the less, July 2000 prices sounds cheap enough that, as the NAR commercials now say, you should consult your local Realtor.
And for Seattle retirees, you can sell here at 25% off peak and buy in Phoenix at 55% off peak before all the out of work baby boomers start buying in Phoenix again and running up prices. I wonder if the Arizona retirement communities will be running commercials next fall pushing seniors here to sell at 25% off so they can buy at 55% off and pocket equity to enjoy the benefits of living in the sun. Then again, 55% off might be below their construction cost.
Scotsman » Jul 2, 2009 at 11:09 am
Here’s your handy shopping guide, One-Eye. The interactive map shows unemployment, bankruptcy, and foreclosure rates for every county in the USA. Why, with this kind of information just about anyone (but not EVERYONE) could predict where housing prices might be softening. Shop ’till you drop!
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/page?id=7613976
jon » Jul 2, 2009 at 12:02 pm
CR has a link to a Roubini article that talks about how China is coming to grips with the notion the good ole US and A is becoming a nation of deadbeats.
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257169/the_chinese_proposal_for_a_new_global_super_currency
They are smart to want to try to cut off power to our printing presses before we make a mess of this. Of course if they succeed, then there will be even more incentive to fully monetize our existing dollar denominated debt and then just shift over to a world currency and leave the Dollar in the trash.
PublicEnemy#1 » Jul 2, 2009 at 4:17 pm
SEVEN and counting for today’s list of bank failures!
Where she stops, nobody knows….
http://www.fdic.gov/
I am guessing Sheila moved the experienced people into Illinois today to shut them down all at once. What state gets hit next?
Will we see any West Coast failures today?
Stay tuned!
deejayoh » Jul 2, 2009 at 4:41 pm
By Kary L. Krismer @ 19:
But haven’t we established that Pending Sales stats are of limited usefulness these days? Unless this is the month the dam breaks on actual closings
The Tim » Jul 2, 2009 at 4:51 pm
RE: deejayoh @ 24 – I’m pretty sure he’s referring to the NWMLS # of recorded closed SFH sales for King County, not pendings.
One Eyed Man » Jul 2, 2009 at 5:13 pm
RE: deejayoh @ 24 –
deejayoh, I’m sure Kary’s searching the MLS closed sales for June. It looks like the MLS count on June closings will be 1575 or more per current search assuming I didn’t F___ it up. Even more surprising, how many would have said the King Co median price would be up more than 6% MOM and down only 10% YOY. And don’t forget, the 1575 is after some deals probably failed due to the increase in 30 yr mtg rates. The median price is just under 400K with a square footage of about 2030, just under $200/sq ft.
Although it’s still probably a seasonal bounce, it keeps the currently outstanding bottom predictions alive at least until fall and winter. I didn’t compare to prior months to see if it indicates that some of the mid and higher priced market is coming back, but I think it probably does. That is to say, I think the median went up in part because the sales mix included more higher priced homes, not that the price of a given home increased that much from May.
As Kary said,vague reference to a numbers from NWMLS sources, but not compiled or guaranteed by the NWMLS.
David Losh » Jul 2, 2009 at 5:17 pm
RE: jon @ 22 –
This is an old article that is being rehashed for hysteria. The Chinese have a billion people to feed. On a day to day basis they have much bigger concerns then advancing a new currency. Internationally they are the most stuck, along with India, in just trying to survive.
While we lose descrectionary dollars people starve to death in China and India when the economy tanks.
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 2, 2009 at 6:24 pm
RE: deejayoh @ 24 – Tim was right, I was talking closed sales. I would guess pendings are probably over 3,500 by now, but I haven’t looked recently.
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 2, 2009 at 6:25 pm
RE: One Eyed Man @ 26 – Hey, by disclosing the median you’re ruining my poll idea! ;-)
Scotsman » Jul 2, 2009 at 7:43 pm
Smells like deflation- Swedish interest rates go negative. Yes, negative.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
One Eyed Man » Jul 2, 2009 at 10:32 pm
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 29 –
Sorry Kary, I shouldn’t have done it and I wouldn’t have if I thought there would be a straight up pole. But the results would be skewed by the people with MLS access.
Scotsman » Jul 2, 2009 at 10:42 pm
Here’s the percentage of the population that has lost jobs (since the official start of a recession) since WW2. We’re currently headed for first place- “with a bullet” as they say:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/Skyq54TUtPI/AAAAAAAAFuE/JywLBQ0kG_o/s1600-h/JoblossPercentJune2009.jpg
Hmmm- can you fix it, Tim? Thanks.
BillE » Jul 2, 2009 at 11:27 pm
By Scotsman @ 30:
Whoa. That’s weird.
Kary L. Krismer » Jul 3, 2009 at 10:24 am
By Kary L. Krismer @ 28:
I just looked–3523. The median is $50,000 below the median for closed sales for June, so obviously a lot of short sales in there. The system shows over 750, or just over 20%, but properties that went pending before May wouldn’t likely be updated to reflect their short sale status, so it could be much higher.