By The Tim on August 12, 2009
Here is your open thread for the mid-week on August 12th, 2009. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.
Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!
Posted in Open Thread | Tagged open_thread
Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.
Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) — Home price declines in the U.S. accelerated in the second quarter, dropping by a record 15.6 percent from a year earlier, as foreclosures weighed on values.
The median price of an existing single-family home dropped to $174,100, the most in records dating to 1979, the National Association of Realtors said today. Total sales rose 3.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.76 million from the first quarter and fell 2.9 percent from 2008’s second quarter.
Don’t forget NAR shill Lawrence Yun’s comments after Quarter-over-Quarter prices “jumped” by 4%.
I drove through my old neighborhood today near Crown Hill in Ballard where I lived earlier. It was a great place to live at the time, but I still see a substantial number of homes in disrepair. Decks falling apart, siding painted over 20x, roofing in need of replacement. I realize many of these homes were built just post WWII, but if it costs $400K to aquire a home and darn near $50K or more to improve depending upon the situation, I can see why many remain in need of repair. Some of the old homes (Tudors & small semi-bungalows) between 8th NW and 15th from 65th up to Holman Rd, look so much smaller than I remember.
I also noticed a few townhouse developments that are vacant.
I have to say that I don’t regret moving to Snohomish County.
RE: Scotsman @ 1 –
Stocks are up, the feds are buying their own debt. RE should be sky-rocketing in price any month now, the data you’re using is obsolete. Unemployment doesn’t matter at all, you’re an economist type, you should hate and ignore Malthus Theory too…LOL :-)
RE: S-Crow @ 3 –
Crown Hill is one of those neighborhoods decimated by rezoning. That’s all buffer zone between mixed use at Holman Road and residential. It’s the same in Ballard between 32nd and 8th from Market to 65th.
RE: David Losh @ 5 –
That’s the way I feel too. Ballard’s been a victim of it’s own success. Way too many townhomes,
Like Yogi Berra said, when asked about going to a certain restaurant ” Nobody goes there any more, it’s too crowded.’
The Fed is getting more optimistic about the economy. Slowly but surely it seems we are getting out of recession.
But it does not mean that real estate magically will start going up…. I doubt it because another reckless mortgagae lending would be needed to stimulate this growth again.
RE: Trigger @ 7 –
Exactly. The economy could be stabilizing but that doesn’t necessarily mean RE is going to start booming. Heck it still has plenty of potential for dropping prices since RE is regional. Just because you stopped shorting the economy, it doesn’t mean you can no longer short RE.
A friend who works at Boeing tells me that the new budget for his project, an updated 747 model, includes some severe cuts and that there will be spending reductions on other programs as well. It is too early to know how many job losses this will equate to, but it does not bode well.
RE: Flying Ape @ 8 –
Check this news URL out on wealthy Mexicans buying Florida RE to get quick American citizenship:
http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2009/08/foreigners-buying-property-to-get-us-residency-.html
These Florida RE investors from Mexico are in for a rude surprise?
They’ll lose millions to gain citizenship as RE chronically continues its collapses IMO, as sanctuary states like Florida ramp up overpopulation, condense living space, reduce per capita expenses; thus drastically lowering wages and causing even worse than Great Depression level unemployment and poverty….the Malthus Theory is true. American economists hate Malthus because their assumption that technology will deal with population growth can’t stop slam dunk unemployment, poverty, reduced wages and more collapses in RE prices. The only solution, economists will never admit to, on propping up RE prices, is immediate depopulation in America…LOL
These foreign RE investors are clearly going lose their shirts in states like Florida [California too], if we don’t depopulate. But I imagine they’re too dense to figure it out. and still trust our American economists’ horrifying bad judgements/predictions to date. Hades, six pack Joe could make better predictions than most of the American economists…LOL
RE: Slumlord @ 9 –
Add butcher axing of Future Combat Systems and F-22 in too, Seattle Boeing defense jobs make up half the picture now. Just commercial Boeing work isn’t near as important to Seattle anymore.
I think we’ll know by Oct 09, the new government FY, how bad the Boeing bleeding will be, but if the 787 delays continue or worse yet, the project scrapped; assume that sign in 1970’s “Last one out, turn off the lights” will be back up.
Any news on the Tanker Contract hopes for Boeing?
In the past I’ve repeatedly commented that on listings, you’re better off with a full service agent–the limited service don’t get as good of results getting sales. Today I was previewing a LS listing and couldn’t find the keybox. There was also no reference in the agent remarks where it was, as is customary when it’s not at the front door. I called the agent. No answer and full mailbox.
RE: Softwarengineer @ 10 – “…the Malthus Theory is true. American economists hate Malthus because their assumption that technology will deal with population growth can’t stop slam dunk unemployment, poverty, reduced wages and more collapses in RE prices. The only solution, economists will never admit to, on propping up RE prices, is immediate depopulation in America…LOL”
Unless Malthus was wrong, and has been wrong for 200 years, and probably will continue to be wrong in the future? Malthus estimated human population growth as an exponential curve–true enough. He postulated that food production, and other forms of wealth, were linear–couldn’t have been more wrong. Anyway I’m confused–are you applying Malthusian doctrine to a bricked-up America, with no inputs or outputs (probably what the good reverend had in mind) or to an America with immigration and free trade? The first analysis is incorrect and naive, as I’m sure you’ll agree; the second does not follow from your stated premises.
Interesting picture of how people spend their money: http://www.visualeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/wheredidthemoneygo.jpg
A rather small part is allocated towards food, so concern about our 1% per year population growth outstripping our ability to provide food is a bit premature.
Don’t know too much about Malthus theory but i can’t disagree that he does seem a little loony. His “preventative” solution to population didn’t seem to help RE in Japan much and US would have to become a secular nation like Japan to implement his ideas. I just don’t see us in 10 years at Christmas eating KFC and a stupid cake while unmarried couples are fornicating in motel 8’s.
Thanks to those of you who voted for my favorite recent shirt over at Shirt.Woot.com after my request a few weeks ago. It didn’t end up winning in the “derby,” but they selected it as an “Editor’s Choice” anyway, so I got to buy it after all.
Woot!
Click above to go buy one for yourself. Just $10 until 10:00 PM tonight. $15 after that, and probably will only be available for a couple weeks.
Tim, I voted, but I dont get it. Is there something that I am missing?
By Flying Ape @ 15:
Yeah I see the flaw in that, unmarried couples can afford much nicer hotels.
RE: Rack @ 17 – Nope, it’s just a totally random cool shirt that I wanted to (and did) buy. Another even more bizarre one by the same guy that I really liked but was not printed (not yet anyway) was grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.
Both shirts require 0.25oz of cubensis to properly view them.