When I started Seattle Bubble just over four years ago in August 2005, there were many sources for local real estate news—The Seattle Times, The Seattle P-I, Rain City Guide, etc… I started this site not due to a lack of news sources, but due to what I felt was a lack of consumer-oriented local real estate news. All of the existing sources were heavy on the industry cheerleading and light on actual investigation and digging into the numbers.
Lately the local real estate news scene has been changing quite a bit…
Back in November of last year the Seattle Times’ dedicated real estate reporter Elizabeth Rhodes was voluntarily downsized. Yesterday SeattlePI.com real estate reporter Aubrey Cohen announced that he is moving to the aerospace beat, with no mention of anyone moving into the dedicated real estate position.
Over at the Times, business reporter Eric Pryne has been doing a good job with the occasional real estate story, and Aubrey says that he will “continue to help guide” the real estate reporting at the P-I. I don’t doubt that both news outlets will continue to cover real estate issues, but neither seems to have a dedicated reporter for the subject.
Meanwhile, the P-I “reader blog” Seattle Real Estate Professionals is all but dead, averaging about one post every other week. Rain City Guide has evolved itself into some sort of real estate search / general industry discussion site with Seattle-specific stories having become quite rare.
It would seem that after four years, Seattle Bubble is now Seattle’s only source for dedicated local real estate reporting.
With that in mind, I’d like to open up a conversation with you, the readers, about what you would like to get out of the local real estate reporting provided here at Seattle Bubble. Rather than kicking back and using the lack of competition as an excuse to be lazy, I’d prefer to take this opportunity to improve the site even more.
So what would you like to get out of Seattle Bubble? More personal interest stories? More interactive maps and interactive charts? Additional community-driven features? Coverage of specific neighborhood issues? Let’s hear your ideas.
Tim-
I think you do a great job. One article per day seems plenty so as not to overwhelm.
A couple things I would add:
1) the number of BK filings as that would seem to be generally related to the health of the Seattle Economy.
2) I don’t recall if you’ve listed Notice of Sale Numbers, or Foreclosure numbers…but that would be interesting (perhaps a monthly tally similar to inventory).
3) If you’re really feeling ambitious, I would selfishly love more info on the bank owned properties….maybe an interactive map and contact information on who to negotiate with. Many folks utiliize your site when researching whether to buy or not…detailed info on bank owned inventory would be very beneficial.
Don’t change your stories, but could use a lot less “free market” cheerleading.
RE: long time reader @ 2 – Are you referring to the occasional opinion piece, or something else?
tell me how much to spend, when, where, and what to buy based on my personal situation that will guarantee I won’t lose money.
j/k, but I would like to add my thanks for doing a great job. When I am ready to buy, I will feel much more comfortable due to the education I’ve received from Seattle Bubble.
More stories about:
Most loved Real Estate Agents
Most disliked Real Estate Agents
Best Real Estate Attorney’s
Worst Real Estate Attorney’s
Best Real Estate Advice
Worst Real Estate Advice
Best Deal of the Day in Real Estate
More Tales From the Darkside as written in RCG!
Thats just a few!
RE: jim @ 4 – I agree with Jim. You do a great job Tim and have saved me from losing hundreds of thousands of dollars on a home purchase. The volume of topics makes it easy to get informed and not be overwhelmed. Thanks again.
Who says you can’t hear a voice in the wilderness shouting above the storm? Congrats and keep up the good work. Many of your viewers are renters for various reasons. How about some “accurate” local rental rates both current and past with some emphasis on SFH rentals where it seems impossible to get accurate rental rates? It would be very helpful in leasing and renegotiating leases with accurate figures to point to showing rents declining 10-15 percent, etc. while we wait out the storm.
RE: Scott Weitz @ 1 – Agreed. Analysis of REO homes would be quite interesting. Maybe a comparison of sales prices of REOs to zip-code averages… There is little transparency with bank-owned sales, and I believe the banks prefer to keep that information quiet. Just stumbled upon the site and will continue to visit. Thanks!
I think you are doing a great job too. However, I live on Bainbridge Island where about 85% of the working adults commute daily to Seattle. Our RE market is tied to yours, however, no one mentions us or includes us in metro data.
What would be most helpful to me is to dive deeper into specific neighborhoods and price ranges. Real estate is hyper local and it seems we’re missing major changes and movement in specific locations and categories.
This might require the involvement of readers to represent their localities.
But hey, you asked for suggestions not solutions…
This morning there was a news report about zillow’s top ten best place to buy and sell real estate. Some of the market places I’m familiar with. They are way over priced as either a buyer or seller.
In my opinion, from reading your blog, the price of real estate has been artificially increased to create high dollar mortgages. Mortgages are then sold, and so on.
The one thing you have is the macro economic discussions. The eula (sp?) and sniglet guys may be completely out of thier minds, I really have no opinion about that, but it’s the discussion that has moved your site, in my opinion, to a forefront.
You are forgetting about redfin and zillow as news sources. They do have vested interests, but people go to them anyway. I think you should have another blog of national scope.
It would be helpful for readers like myself if the sarcasm could be toned down a little or all together not used in your writing. Because sometimes it’s hard to tell if you are being serious on your remarks or just being sarcastic. I think it’s because most contents of your site is very objective with graphs and tables and numbers that sarcasm throws readers off.
Thank you.
You know how newspapers have been whores for the real estate industry by publishing articles about particular neighborhoods and extolling their virtues?
How about featuring items about neighborhoods with a little more balance, like ” Why you wouldn’t buy in Bellevue”?, focusing on the negatives of places that are perceived to be wonderful ( like lack of affordability, higher than thought of crime rate, school district issues, etc) , or just information about lesser known or misunderstood ‘hoods in general.
Not because you need to, more like because nobody else will be doing it.
I respect this blog because it gives all sides to the story. And most posters here are intellectual, smart, and polite. So, it is a good read. I really don’t have time to participate much, but do read daily.
Great site. Please, NOTHING about local Realwhores, except maybe how not to deal with them as a species. Info on banker-mortgage fraud/machinations from a local perspective I find interesting. A ‘Top 10″ or “Hall of Shame” for Realtards would be terrrific. You could use lawsut judgements (there are many now) for fact-checking, etc. Have you watched bubbleinfo.com or you tubed’ ‘jim the realtor? This format truly is informative and is bringing massive attention to these sirtes. Keep up the great work and thank you. JtI.
Don’t forget about BellevueBubble (last post: Oct. 1, 2008) and EastsideBubble (3 posts this month after a 5 month gap).
Congrats, Tim! It’s heartening to see objective, reality based, high quality reporting and analysis triumph over the spin and distortions of the other sources. I’m confident this site has saved potential buyers millions of dollars overall in what would have been lost equity and future wealth by giving them a more honest picture of both the local real estate market and the national economic collapse
What should be added or subtracted? Agreed that real estate is local, but as I’ve often said, context is important. Perhaps once in a while we need to bring in more discussion of the national economic scene to help folks understand/remember that Seattle isn’t an island, but part of a larger system. I know you’re familiar with KD’s MarjketTicker site- perhaps some of his better summaries should be referenced and discussed here as well?
What needs to be subtracted? The comment above about sarcasm is valid, and I need to stop picking on Kary. Unless he deserves it. ;-)
No, Scotsman, you do not need to stop picking on Kary. What? We’re suddenly seeing the ” soft and gentle” Scotsman?
Besides, if you look at Kary’s total number of posts and the number of sarcastic responses to them, the ratio is actually pretty low.
Also, the dude is not only a real estate agent, he’s also an attorney. If that doesn’t give you a thick skin, I don’t know what does. So go ahead, pick on Kary. Just be nice to me.
Two weeks ago I hadn’t even heard of that “only one” tag line (embarrassing to say that where my kid brother’s the superhero comic book artist) and now it’s turning up everywhere, including in one of my own posts from earlier today.
Anyway, We just hope you keep on blogging. The sector has lost a lot of good voices lately, both local ones and folks who had a bigger perspective (Tanta being in a category all by herself, of course).
Ira (#13), in the last couple of years I’ve been outraged by a couple of mainstream pieces emotionally manipulating people to overextend into RE. I shudder to think what happened to people who were influenced by this abomination.
http://housingdoom.com/2006/12/09/nyt-outrage/
I HEAR SEATTLE TIMES IS MAKING MONEY AGAIN
Wellll…I’m sure the transfer of subscriptions from the old PI was a main reason; but perhaps a little more realism to their RE section helped too.
Seattle Times asked me if I’d subscribe and I told ‘em “No Way”. The reason newsparers went down hill IMO is they make bad predictions, are corporate lapdogs and called the Seattle Bubble all wrong from the get go. My Seattle Times is the blog-sphere….its full of baloney, but the kernels of truth it has don’t exist anywhere in MSM IMO.
Speaking as a big “Jim the Realtor” fan (www.bubbleinfo.com), why not encourage a few folks with real estate licenses to contribute occasional videos discussing specific properties or neighborhoods? (Though not, I think, for properties for which they’re a seller’s agent.)
Two reasons: (1) it’s nice to balance the excellent statistical work of this blog with in-depth discussions of particular properties, (2) the Jim-the-realtor videos, at their best, give a sense of what someone with lots of real-estate experience looks for, and sees, in a property.
And how about guest-blogging from some of the neighborhood bloggers in Seattle?
RE: Colin @ 21 – I like the idea of videos. Not necessarily of homes that you’re listing, but of the ideas and concepts that you’ve been blogging about, like SEOBook.com (a huge slew of videos detailing SEO).
I also second the idea of guest-blogging. I know some guys who’d love to guest-blog for seattlebubble.
Bummer to see the SERP site denigrate…is Seattle Bubble on Twitter?
I am happy with the Seattle Bubble as it currently is. Others must agree because it has been around far longer than I expected when I started reading it about 3 years ago.
I can see two places where enhancements could further the role of SB. One idea is to include more investigative-type stories if the staff has time to do the research. This would be taking on a traditional role of newspapers that they been neglecting as their resources diminish.
Another idea would be to have more guest posts. There should be a discussion of the criteria for these first if the site were to go down that road. I have some ideas that I would like to develop into an article format and it would be helpful to know if Seattle Bubble is the right venue for trying to publish them.
Thanks for the great ideas everybody. Keep them coming.
RE: Justin Louie @ 22 – Tell them to shoot me an email, I’m always interested in opportunities like that.
RE: rent for now @ 23 – Not officially. I have a personal account but no account specific for the site as of yet.
I read two real estate blogs: Seattle bubble and The Irvine Housing Blog (http://www.irvinehousingblog.com/). Part of that is because I’ve been living in Seattle and Los Angeles for the past two years. But part of it is that Seattle Bubble consistently digs up all sorts of interesting numbers, graphs and data, while Larry over at Irvine uses a little bit of data and a whole bunch of experience as a community planner to analyze and extrapolate what that data might mean.
Tim – I think you kick ass at finding values, finding numbers, and finding statistics related to the Seattle real estate market. I also think, however, that you can’t watch numbers as diligently as you do without wondering, aloud, what they might mean. And I think that if you want to stretch your net wider, the way to do it is to try your hand at analysis and prognistication.
Know how I found your blog? I used to read Eschaton regularly (Duncan Black is in Philly) and he liked the analysis at Irvine enough that he used to link to it. I read a couple and wondered if there might actually be a *Seattle* housing blog.
Just because you’re regional doesn’t mean you can’t be far-reaching. All you need is a reason for people to care. And that’s why one of the most liberal political blogs linked to a real estate blog run out of one of the most conservative counties on the coast.
I’d like to cast an anti-vote for video… or at least, request that any videos include text as well. I read MUCH faster than I listen/ watch, so I never consume video content as it tends to be a waste of time for me.
Otherwise, keep up the great work Tim!
I’d like more free market cheerleading.
the Tim — I too am a regular reader of the Irvine Housing Blog, and have watched Jim the Realtor videos. One of the great things about IHB is the in-depth analysis; perhaps you can do some more of that on your site. And I’d love to see Seattle RE through the lens of a local agent with the dry wit of Jim the Realtor.
Otherwise, your blog is a very valuable piece of information that I read almost daily.
Don’t change anything. There is a reason that you are the only one remaining since you provide the most unbiased and novel opinions/evidence. Regional neighborhood data might be nice but it won’t be relevant for the majority of the readers.
By Colin @ 21:
I think you mean listing agent, not selling agent. Selling agents represent buyers. Agents cannot comment publicly on other agent’s listings. Redfin got fined something like $50,000 for their site that did that.
Ban Scotsman. ;-) :-D
Seriously, my only change is I don’t think you should feel so compelled to have a new post every day. It’s okay to take a break every now and then and let us ramble on about existing threads.
BTW, I had three posts on SREP just last week. Foreclosure law changes, the one on the silly DB study and one on NWLMS feed to consumer sites. I say that not to discredit your mention above about the lack of posts there, but simply to show that sometimes there are interesting topics and sometimes there are not. I probably didn’t have 3 topics all of July. I’d go nuts if I had to come up with a topic every day.
Tim – I enjoy your blog and, indeed, you’ve done a good job in presenting the real estate market and industry in a new light. Several other commentators have encouraged you to include blog contributions of others in the industry that are more “hyperlocal.” There are a number of local agents (and other professionals) who don’t take large pictures of the market but choose to focus on neighborhoods or particular cities. Just a thought.
As a relative newcomer to the Seattle and Pac NW area, this site has been a FANTASTIC resource. I actually disagree with the suggestions about expanding this site with nationwide perspectives….frankly there are MANY sources of nationwide information (although too many are dominated by journalistic or industry-mouthpiece drivel, but that is not your responsibility). Instead, stick with Seattle-specific information and how it compares to other areas…just as you have been doing. And keep it fact-based and data-based….just as you have been doing.
Keep up the good work, and thank you!
I think guest posts is a great idea and I think readers should suggest topics they’re interested in and the people they’d like to see the posts from.
Perhaps somebody knows an economics professor at UW (or another local college) who’d be willing to write something on the local economy. I’d love to see some of the Bubble regulars who clearly have a strong economics background have a back and forth with somebody like that.
Sadly, I don’t remember any of my economics professors. However, I am an alum and would be happy to reach out to someone at UW.
I recommend not allowing anonymous guest posters. If they want to present themselves as an expert or someone we should listen to, then they should be willing to disclose (or at least not conceal) their identity, experience, education, etc.
I keep going back to a home inspector out of Nashville, TN when I need a good laugh and great advice. His name is Walter Jowers and wrote a column called Helter Shelter in the alt weekly (Nashville Scene) for several years until last year. I would like to see a local home inspector/reputable remodeler write an occasional guest post that will offer more detailed advice re:inspections, deal breakers, and local trends to be aware of in the construction of houses.
Thanks Tim
I think the blog is going to have to transform from a “bubble” blog that is primarily concerned with price related discussions to something useful for people involved in real estate transactions. This could be either industry professionals or home buyers/sellers. At some point in the next year or two, the market will stabilize and price discussions will become rather boring.
So, I’d like to see:
+ A really good neighborhood resource. What’s it like to live in Bothell, Kenmore, West Seattle, etc.? How long is the commute from there? What’s nice/bad about living there? What zoning or other issues are happening there? Wikipedia style with content from the community. A lot of areas like Greenlake have community associations with monthly meetings. I’d be nice to see those meeting minutes posted here. Can you get the police to give a quarterly update for issues happening in that neighborhood?
+ King County makes all there public land records available for download. I’d like to see a free resource that gives specific distressed property info. It just doesn’t seem to be available anywhere. Even the pay sites are full of old and out of date foreclosured and NTS properties.
+ Real Estate service provider reviews. Most people don’t know how to pick a real estate agent, mortgage broker, or inspector. There are few resources available to make an informed decision. I’d like people to post reviews of their experiences with specifics of commissions paid, what services they provided, etc.. Make this for mortgage brokers, agents, and inspectors.
+ I’d like to see an “Evaluate this listing” feature. Someone could post a listing from Redfin and knowledgeable people on the site could say “That house listed at $450K is only worth $390K and here’s why….” Or, conversely, someone could post their own home’s listing and get constructive feedback. You’d probably want to limit commenting here to non-crazy members.
I commend you on your real estate coverage and encourage you to keep up the good work. We’re also in the midst of figuring out the scope of our own real state coverage here at Northwest Hub, a site more tailored to land use issues. We’d actually welcome your feedback on areas where we can be complementary.
By DrShort @ 37:
The problem with these type of reviews is the people don’t know what they should be looking for. I’ve given examples in the past where clients’ offers were turned down just because their agent didn’t know what they were doing. Presumably those potential buyers had no idea. Another was from my attorney days, where a client thought her divorce attorney was great and the husband’s horrible, when really it was reversed. The client’s divorce attorney was an idiot.
There might be some basic questions that might be useful. For example, was your closing date extended because your mortgage broker didn’t have documents ready on time? If the answer to that is yes, that could be a bad sign, depending on when that happened (Oct 2007 I’d probably give them a pass).
Not sure if this got noticed or not, but CR has started looking at the sales mix- equity, short, and reo for different areas. Lots of potential for snazzy new graphs if the info is available locally:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SoLNMo2IJXI/AAAAAAAAGFA/RJayj8zI3pM/s1600-h/SacramentoDistressedJuly2009.jpg
RE: Slumlord @ 24 –
I was thinking exactly along the lines of Slumlord. Since the local media won’t be doing much journalism in regards to real estate (digging up stories rather than passing along industry press releases) it looks like Seattle Bubble could pick up the slack there. That would mean calling people, getting quotes, giving background, the whole reporter schtick. You’ve already got the reporter’s hat (I’m remembering your previous avatar). For example, I know of a “million dollar” condo building in Tacoma where I heard second hand that the construction firm got screwed in the project. I don’t know how much of the condo project is sold, if they’ve had to make big price reductions or anything about it from the local Tacoma paper (they’ve been pretty good about not being cheerleaders, but they still aren’t too interested in digging dirt about local developers).
Also, guest bloggers like SCrow are great to give industry perspective from the inside. Like others said, lets hear from inspectors, etc.
A few days ago the large sign on highway 410 that was promoting the Cascadia development was removed. I would like to know what is going on with the project. There has been no news reported on their website for over a year. There have also been no stories on the project in any of the local papers that I can find.
Seems like the cheerleaders don’t get paid to report on the flip side of the bubble.
It would be nice to have greater insight into these projects and others. I know that you have featured the stalled projects, but I would like more information on what the plans are for these stalled/failed projects. How about a few interviews with these developers?
The Tim’s honest reporting will now single-handedly send real estate back to reality! No more newspaper real estate reporting skewed by their advertisers. /snark (Well only somewhat sarcastic. Used to be a reporter. Know that newspapers are not always unbiased.)
Awesome site. It saved me thousands of dollars. More coverage on Eastside or area specific (redmond, sammamish, bellevue, or bothell) will be much appreciated.
RE: Crashcadia @ 42 – I could get Tim in front of at least two of the bigger developers of WA. If he was willing to sign an NDA, submit a list of questions, and have them revised or ommited. :)
We need to find Eleua and bring him back for a few more guest posts. On the subject of sarcasm, I say keep it up. If we can’t laugh at the absurdity of the last four years, we will cry thinking about the permanent damage this bubble has done to our country.
RE: wreckingbull @ 46 –
I agree. Let him know that he is missed.
Eleua
By David Losh @ 11:
I have the greatest respect for these guys and don’t like to see them slandered. IMO, their insights and ideas are/were nothing short of brilliant.
By wreckingbull @ 46:
I was sort of surprised how he was attacked the last time he was here.
By mukoh @ 45:
What kind of journalist is going to the terms of a NDA???
NDA’s are for people who you are paying to report on your business, or people you pay to work for you.
By Jonness @ 48:
What happens when you go out on a limb is one of two things.
1. You are a genius if you are right.
2. You are a idiot if you are wrong.
No mediocrity when it comes to being on the extreme side of things.
RE: Rack @ 51 – But the thing is, Eleua was not only negative, but the reasons for his negativity turned out to be largely correct. So I’ll give him a lot more credit than someone who says prices will drop X%, or to year XXXX levels, or that the median price of a home has to be affordable by the median income earner, etc.
The extent of what happened though, Eleua was way off on that–at least so far. The game is not over yet.
I’d like a feature where people go on record with their predictions. Later, they are personally recognized for their accuracy, or lack of it.
RE: Rack @ 51 –
Both guys created controversy, lot’s of it.
In blogging it’s content and controversy that keeps a site moving. Both of these guys have brilliant points of view. They also represented fringe thinking when they started and now they are closer to main stream.
You have to admit sniglet still gets piled on for deflationist theory. He is though one of the main commenters who adds a credibility to the discussion.
Now think about the irony of Eulea and sniglet being the credibility of this web site.
Tim’s the Ritz. Eleua was the Brie. Sniglet’s the cheeze-wiz.
I’m moving to the Seattle area later this Fall, and I have been tracking the housing market for the past year or so in preparation. I love your site, Tim, because it gives me lots of good Seattle-specific information. I guess if I had a wish list, it would be:
1) I’d like to see more in-depth reviews of specific neighborhoods, like Hinton @ 10 recommended. Maybe some articles comparing the performances of different school districts (often a big factor in where people choose to live, and subsequently a factor in housing costs), comparing tax rates (if they differ from community to community.. not sure about how it works out there), comparing traffic/ferry/public transportation issues, how much new construction vs. old construction, etc.
2) It would be useful for me to see more in-depth breakdowns for Snohomish county, similar to those that you do for King County. We are probably going to end up there, for a variety of reasons, and it would be useful for me to have more data on that area.
These are just some suggestions. You’re doing a great job and I enjoy reading your site.
RE: vermillionsky @ 56 – The tax rates do vary by area, and quite a bit (even ignoring the difference in assessments from area to area. I’ll try to find a link later.
Its hard to say how RCG is going to evolve with the changes Dustin has made…it’s all still pretty new. We still have the same contributors…but the focus of RCG appears to have changed (even if it’s just visual and not content).
I’m thankful we have SB plugging away and it will be interesting to see if the PI replaces Aubrey. Perhaps they’re assuming SREP can fill Aubrey’s shoes.
PS CONGRATS on your 4th bloggo-versary! That’s quite an accomplishment. :)
By Rhonda Porter @ 58:
I doubt that’s what they’re thinking.
The article today was a bit disappointing.
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 60 – what article?
RE: Rhonda Porter @ 61 – http://www.seattlepi.com/local/409245_housing13.html
As a potential first time home buyer and relatively new to Seattle area (just couple of years), it’ll be great to understand the areas where I should start looking for houses. I keep hearing different stories from different people about different areas. Can we have a list of good or not so good places to buy houses in and around Seattle with +ve and -ve aspects listed out? For Example (not based on facts), Bellevue (positives: good school district, low crime rate, proximity to major employers (Microsoft, T-Mobile) etc; negatives: high house prices, older houses, small average lot size etc).
As a first time home buyer, another area that will interest me is the things to consider when looking for a house. Examples, 1. Do the builders matter (if yes, who are the known good/not so good builders here); 2. Do the lenders matter; 3. Should I go to some low cost real estate agent such as Redfin or to some other traditional agent etc etc.
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 57 –
That would be awesome if you have some link that compares the tax rates in different cities. From looking at houses on Redfin, I’ve noticed property taxes out there seem to be much lower than ours (western PA). The property tax we currently pay on our home would be the same as a house three times the price out there. Here, property taxes vary quite a bit, depending on the county and school district.
Re #31 (sorry for the delay) if realtors can’t comment on other folks’ listings, Kary, how does Jim the Realtor get away with it?
Thanks for clarification re listing agent.
re:#64 SG…a quote from Walter Jowers regarding the question of what are the best houses and who are the best builders: “the old ones and the dead ones”
new houses suck no matter where you live. i wouldn’t buy a home built after 1965. Granted, some of the old homes haven’t been maintained and are crap, but they were built much better by skilled labor. Most homes built today are meant to last 30 yrs because they use shoddy materials and unskilled labor. When the caulk gun is the most important tool the builder has, then you know there’s a problem.
RE: Colin @ 66 – It’s not a REALTOR™©® thing, it’s an NWMLS thing. It’s part of their rules that no member is allowed to “advertise” another member’s listing without permission. They define “advertise” very broadly such that it pretty much includes talking about it publicly in any form.
Most likely whatever MLS Jim the Realtor is a part of does not have a similar rule.
RE: Hinten @ 10 – Hinton, that is a terrific Idea. What is your specific neighborhood? I think you are on the money either readers represent thier own neighborhoods, or SeaBubble can designate a street team to cover a few neighborhoods a piece. Terrific!
RE: The Tim @ 68 – The rule is true Colin, but many times realtors have no problem with other realtors advertising thier listings. I mean why would a realtor mind?
RE: Ray Wilburn, CPA @ 70 –
Because any comments about another agent’s listings are considered advertising. I’m sure an agent wouldn’t mind if I listed his listings as a featured home on my website, but I’m not sure he’d be amenable to having his listing described as ” an overpriced piece of dookey, seemingly made out of cardboard.”
RE: Colin @ 66 – With Permission you can do anything you want. Many Realtors don’t like if I want to advertise thier listings, but many do not mind. It’s win win. I find a buyer, they make a sale. it helps everyone. Some Realtors, just like with people in general, are short sided when it comes to these things, and very territorial. Thier loss.
RE: SG @ 63 – You could have that done for you, but I reccomend, unsolicited of course :), that you google potential areas. For example if I google ‘Everett, WA’ there is a plethora of data and statistics pertaining to that area. Also if you have a few areas in mind, ask a realtor and they can help you with that. I also reccomend triangulating from your job where you want to live, then figuring out spots within a few areas, rather than painting too broad a target. Is that helpful?
RE: Ray Wilburn, CPA @ 73 –
Thanks, it does help. A lot of information can be found in the internet. But as users, what we want is a place where it can be compiled and improved based on community knowledge. For instance, I can refer to Case-Shiller index elsewhere as well. But I do it here for the added insights that Tim so laboriously puts together. Having statistics like the ones that I mentioned combined with additional insights and ‘wisdom of the mass’ will make this site worth visiting for souls like mine.
By Ray Wilburn, CPA @ 70:
Some agents view their listings as being proprietary, but it goes beyond that.
I allow “Internet” advertising of my listings, which basically means other brokers like Redfin, JLS, Windermere, etc. can display them on their sites. I don’t allow other agents to advertise my listings on Craigslist or in magazines, etc. Those tend to be aimed more at an agent getting a buyer than actually selling a property (which is why I also don’t generally allow other agents to hold open houses on my listings).
Hey Tim,
I’d love to see you get some really good interviews with some of the large real estate, mortgage, title, and appraisal company owners. The interviews we read in the mainstream media are soft-ball questions and soundbites. I’d like to see how they answer the tough questions you ask in your SB blog posts. Maybe you could give us a list of the people you’d like to interview and those of us with industry connections can pull some strings for you.
RE: vermillionsky @ 65 –
What people refer to as “property tax” is really a lumped together jumble of many different taxes. There is less variability in things like the cost of schools than in house prices. What this means is that if your house costs only half as much, you will need to pay twice the tax rate to provide the same income stream to local government. Home prices in western PA are less, but many people pay roughly the same in taxes.
Compare, for example, New Kensington (western PA) to Sultan (Snohomish County). Both towns are roughly the same size and equally decrepit. A house in New Ken might sell for $20,000 and the same house would be $140,000 in Sultan. If the cost of public services in each place were $2,000 per year, the tax rates would be 10% and 1.4%, respectively, yet the cost is the same.
By Slumlord @ 77:
Not quite. Yes they do determine the tax rate here by determining the government revenue budgeted, and then dividing by the total value of all assessments, but that doesn’t mean that they do it as a per situs (???) calculation in that manner. Also, while levies, fire district and other items can raise the total rate, the state is limited to 1% of the assessed value of a property.
But I suspect what the person moving here meant is that their taxes are higher in absolute dollars. There are a lot of states that have higher real estate taxes than WA, and some of those states even have income and sales taxes on top of that.
Tim–
Congrats on surviving what looks like a merciless round of attrition for Seattle-area real estate bloggers. Love the site and wouldn’t change much about it, although if anything I’d go the opposite route some other posters have been suggesting, and open it up with possibly more than one post per day: invite guest contributors, maybe start a once-a-week feature where a regular reader (Scotsman? Kary? deejayoh?) can start a thread rather than waiting to hurl their slings and arrows.
One other thing I might like (although I recognize that this sort of granularity is difficult to achieve) is some sort of neighborhood coding system, superimposed upon ZIP codes, that takes into account differentiation between neighborhoods or developments within a ZIP code. A few examples: right now “Greenlake” refers to all manner of communities arrayed around the lake, whether they straddle Aurora or not; “West Seattle” includes both sound-view properties and some not so family-friendly neighborhoods; “Bellevue” is so vague as to defy meaningful analysis. Maybe this isn’t the right place to push for that, but I’ve found this site so informative in other respects, and know I’m not the only person who would find that useful.
Here’s the high and low rates for each city in King County:
http://www.kingcounty.gov/Assessor/~/media/Assessor/News/jan312008/2008_Rate_Distribution.ashx
And here it is broken down even more (starting at page 8):
http://www.kingcounty.gov/Assessor/~/media/Assessor/PropertyTaxes/RateBook09.ashx
By Kary L. Krismer @ 78:
You’re right Kary, I meant the amount, not the percent. As a more concrete example, our 2 bedroom, 2 & half bath townhome, 2 car garage, approx 1200 sqft, built in 1985 here in PA is assessed at just under 100k, and our total property taxes are approximately $2600. I compare that to a townhome in Edmonds with 2 bedroom, 2 & half bath, 1 car garage, 1270 sqft, built in 1985, assessed at 231K with a property tax bill of approx $1900.
In Pennsylvania, the tax rates are not “revenue neutral,” as they seem to be in Washington. That is, the rates don’t adjust as the property values rise or fall.. they stay the same until the school district and/or county change them. Although there are some limits on what the counties may charge, the school boards here are free to raise the rates yearly, without putting it to a vote by levy.
Our county (Allegheny) recently had a big problem with assessments due to this system. They weren’t keeping up with them on a regular basis, so new owners were taxed at purchase price, and older residents were being taxed at older, lower assessed values. When they finally got around to reassessing everyone, there was major sticker shock, particularly for elderly folks who hadn’t been reassessed for decades. The county tried to change the assessment process to use a base year, but the whole thing went to court and they were told they must use recent assessments. They’re still trying to figure out how to fix it. I think the Washington system seems much more stable, and much more sane.
And yes, we also have 1.5% city income tax, a 3.07% state income tax, and a 7% sales tax.
By Rack @ 51:
Whether right or wrong, using your own brain is much better than mindlessly parroting the mainstream consensus.
Sniglet’s predictions were big picture thinking and brought to light many extremely important points. However, we are now witnessing the effects of massive govt. spending hitting the economy; thus, the parrots believe we are on the verge of a massive upward V in the economy. And that’s funny, because, despite the massive free money the govt is flooding into the economy, consumer spending went negative in July, and that’s 70% of the economy.
The fun and games are far from over. When you borrow money you don’t have in order to live beyond your means, you feel rich–right up until you have to pay it back.
You obviously misunderstood my comment. Both Eulea and sniglet, sniglet especially, have been a driving force on this blog. When they started commenting, and even today, people attacked the idea that asset prices could go down 80%. sniglet with his theory of deflation is still engaged in debates.
Debates is kind of a random term. On a blog there are lurkers who never engage. They may think that the theory of deflation is completely wacky and never say anything. Maybe they make a comment and go away. Those are the people my comment was directed at. No matter what you think about the theory the information is what makes this blog different, and in my opinion better than other Real Estate blogs.
About a week ago I posted a forum about the value of Real Estate blogs. After reading the Rain City Guide the past few weeks with it’s new format, I really question the information people think they are getting in a blogging for business web site.
By David Losh @ 83:
What’s the format matter? The printed words are still the same.
That site undergoes more unnecessary revisions than just about any site I can think of.
Why thank you… I am honoured to be thought of as comparable to one of America’s great consumer products, that resulted from the capitalist spirit to make a buck, rather than an expensive (stuck-up) Euro invention tailored to the elite.
In any event, I have really appreciated Seattlebubble for providing such a great forum for wide ranging discussions about both housing and the economy. I don’t think you can really talk about housing without getting into macro-economics. As much as there may be some truth to the adage that “all real-estate is local”, what happens in the broader economy clearly has a major impact.
Tracking bubble area projects might be interesting. How many units have actually been sold at Veer? Rolling Street went apartments, has anyone moved in? What is the buildings long term plan? Equinox just went apartments too. What happened to the presales people and their money? Do condos have a dark side? Good opportunity to give a fair and balanced look at what condo living is really like, and what to look out for. Plenty of stories out there.
Great blog. Thanks for all your hard work. I’m interested in how toos and personal stories about purchasing. I’ve been waiting on the sidelines saving up a large sum 200K to put into a first time home. When home price rise say 10% then I’ll jump in. I’m also interested in good deals from banks or foreclosures. Start thinking post bubble. When no one was saying bubble you where…. the next will be when everyone says crash you say goof time to buy.
I would like to know when we will hit bottom. I know you know, and you’re keeping it from all of us just so we will continue to read SB.
Just kidding. I started reading SB years ago, when we were thinking we might move back to Seattle. You were a voice of reason confirming what I was thinking: that Seattle real estate was whacked. When we did move back a year ago, it was SB that gave me the confidence to NOT buy, despite lots of peer pressure to do so.
I think more info for sellers would be good. So many are clinging to the bubble, listening to RE cheerleaders tell them the recovery is around the corner, and shooting themselves in the foot by pricing poorly and then following the market down. Specific examples comparing outcomes for properties that are priced well and properties that are not. Something like that that makes it concrete.
I don’t think you need to start diluting the site with general info that can be found anywhere (how to buy a house, how to choose a realtor). Keep it Seattle-area specific. In any case, keep up the good work!