Time for the monthly reporting roundup, where I read all the local paper rehashes of the NWMLS press release so you don’t have to.
Here’s a link to this month’s NWMLS press release: Move-up buyers, extended/expanded tax credits boost home sales; Northwest MLS brokers expect momentum to continue in 2010
“This winter will not be ‘business as usual’ for the housing market,” said Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “Thanks to historically low interest rates, adjusted home prices, and the passage of the extended/expanded tax credit, we are getting a running start on the New Year,” he added.
There’s nothing like getting a good running start!
Click below for this month’s roundup of real estate sales spin.
Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: Seattle-area home sales increase, but a decline might be in offing
With the boost from the federal first-time homebuyers’ tax credit likely to wane, at least for the next few months, some observers say sales volumes could start sliding again this winter.
“We could be looking at a second dip in housing,” said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University. “I hope I’m wrong.”
Hey, this guy Crellin may be onto something.
Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: House sales up 81% in November, prices down in King County
King County house sales continued to surge in November, as buyers rushed to close deals before a tax-credit deadline, while prices remained lower than a year earlier, according to a new report.
…
Pat Grimm, designated broker at Windermere Real Estate/Capitol Hill, Inc. and a member of the listing service’s board of directors, said in a listing service news release that move-up buyers have added to the rebound started by first-time buyers.“The shift was made away from a buyer’s market early this year into a balanced market, and in some areas close to the city core, it’s a seller’s market,” he said.
Aubrey’s back (at least for one article), but there’s really not much to this piece beyond a dry listing of data from the NWMLS press release.
Mike Benbow, Everett Herald: Snohomish County home sales up; prices fall
Snohomish County home sales were strong in November, but that didn’t stop prices from continuing to fall.
…
“First-time buyers led the market recovery,” said Pat Grimm a Seattle Windermere broker. “Move-up buyers have definitely picked up the baton.”Congress and the Obama administration have extended the $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers and added a $6,500 tax boost for existing homeowners who buy a new primary residence.
Real estate agents are hoping both groups can be prodded to keep buying homes through the winter to tide them over until spring.
Who cares if you don’t have a job, or already have a load of debt. Just get out there and buy, buy, buy!
Kelly Kearsley, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce County home sales stay strong
Pierce County home sales remain up from a year ago as homebuyers continue to take advantage of the federal tax credit.
“It absolutely has made a difference in how we are finishing out this year and getting ready for next year,” said Marianne Barkman, managing broker and vice president of John L. Scott Real Estate’s Puyallup office.
…
Many in the real estate industry hope that the tax credit will continue to encourage sales through the first quarter of next year. But few are anticipating that home prices will dramatically increase in the spring.“I’m not sure that there is going to be a huge increase as we go forward,” Barkman said. “It’s a time to be very matter of fact and realistic about the market.”
Wow, after just two years of declining home prices, some agents are finally getting it through your heads that consistently lying to your potential customers may not be the best way to build a business!
Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Agents say increased business should continue next year
The median sales price of a Thurston County home fell to the lowest point of the year in November, down 6.23 percent since January 2009 and down 8.87 percent since November 2008, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday.
…
Although mortgage interest rates remain low and tax-credit homebuyer incentives recently were extended, South Sound real-estate professionals say they aren’t sure when home prices will rise again.Real-estate agent Mark Kitabayashi thinks there won’t be price appreciation until the foreclosure problem bottoms out, and another wave of foreclosures could be on the way, he said. Thurston County Realtors Association president Mark Steves agreed Thursday, saying another batch of adjustable-rate mortgages, in which mortgage interest rates adjust higher, could come in 2010 or 2011.
“It’s going to take a while,” Steves said about a return to price appreciation.
Shockingly, I couldn’t find a bottom call in any of this month’s pieces.
(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 12.03.2009)
(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 12.04.2009)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 12.03.2009)
(Mike Benbow, Everett Herald, 12.04.2009)
(Kelly Kearsley, Tacoma News Tribune, 12.04.2009)
(Rolf Boone, Olympian, 12.04.2009)
“Who cares if you don’t have a job, or already have a load of debt. Just get out there and buy, buy, buy!”
Tim…..You really think they will get a loan with this statement? This is not 2005.
“Wow, after just two years of declining home prices, some agents are finally getting it through your heads that consistently lying to your potential customers may not be the best way to build a business!”
Hmm..you sound a bit cranky. I think I better send you the New 500 Realty breath mints….Or maybe a 500 Realty Fridge magnet.
These 2 items will brighten your day.
I Had a Meeting With a Seattle Area Weyerhouser White Collar Employee Last Night
Basically, most of their employees have been “butcher axed”….her job was cut too, but a deployment to Afghan openned up a temp slot….she’ll find out by year’s end if that goes away for good too. I told her Weyerhouser should be doing great right now, as IMO we need to replace all the old subpar plumbing/electrical/insulated pre-60s Seattle Area homes with new energy efficient ones….much cheaper than gutting these decrepit structures for remodel and/or continuing to heat them…LOL
If Weyerhouser is going down the toilet how can housing be bright?
Mainstream Media Polyanna Unemployment Down Garbage article in part:
“….The unemployment rate also dropped because fewer people are looking for work. The size of the labor force, which includes the employed and those actively searching for jobs, fell by nearly 100,000, the third straight decline. That indicates more of the unemployed are giving up on looking for work….”
The rest of the URL:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Unexpected-drop-in-jobless-apf-4164274048.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
From a Roubini blogger in part:
“…yes, Mr. Market loves the report, but as noted, “temporary help services accounted for the majority of the increase, adding 52,000 jobs (in professional and business services)”.
Welcome to the new PART-TIME WORK FORCE AMERICA(and all of its negative effects)! …”
The rest of the URL:
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/258067/senator_chris_dodd_raises_roubini_predictions_at_bernanke_confirmation_hearings#readcomments
“Real estate agents are hoping both groups can be prodded to keep buying homes through the winter to tide them over until spring.”
So THAT’S been my problem! I keep forgetting my cattle prod at home when I’m showing houses.
I guess I’m just a different creature. I think serving my client’s needs comes first. How do you “prod” people, short of using that electronic cattle prod? I know! How about lying?
How do you “prod” people, short of using that electronic cattle prod?
With breath mints and refridgerator magnets!
RE: Ray Pepper @ 4 – …and free t-shirts of course.
Well dang- looks like I somehow managed to miss the bottom. Or maybe not.
Actually, I’m with J. L. Scott on this one- “winter will not be business as usual.” Nothing like a running start when headed over a cliff.
RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 3 –
Can you really say such things and still be a Realtor?
Is there reliable information on the average income of a Realtor? It would be very interesting to see a long-term mean and median incomes, sales volumes, and number of active Realtors graphed together from the NWMLS data.
“First-time buyers led the market recovery,” said Pat Grimm a Seattle Windermere broker. “Move-up buyers have definitely picked up the baton.”
So who dropped the baton? Shouldn’t First-time buyers have handed off the baton to Move-up buyers? Did they trip over Realtors who were in the way?
And stop poking me already.
RE: Tyler @ 7 – The median income might be zero, and I’d be fairly confident it’s under $10,000.
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 9 – I am very sure that
Mode = $0
Tim, I’m surprised you didn’t hit on the Times saying we had six months of increases. We’ve had six months of YOY increases, but not six months of increases.
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 9 –
The best part time job in the world during a hot market, right?
I wonder if they count as fully-employed right now…
RE: Tyler @ 12 – I don’t think they ever count as employed, except for perhaps those like Redfin agents. They’re not eligible for unemployment compensation.
The Tim,
Sales are up and inventory is down. Market remains difficult at higher price ranges, but at lower price ranges inventory is low. Low inventory normally leads to higher prices.
It makes no difference what Paul Grimm says. Or you, for that matter.
RE: 2kt @ 14 –
So if I understand, correctly: great low end sales due to BS tax credits, and terrible high end is a good thing?
RE: 2kt @ 14 – I agree that commentary from me or anyone else is not going to affect the market. Your comments about sales and inventory would definitely be applicable if the real estate market resembled a free market, but the .gov seems to be doing whatever they can to eliminate whatever small semblance of a natural free market that may have existed in residential real estate before the bust. Rich Toscano wrote a great commentary on this problem earlier this week: Forecasting the Real Estate Non-Market
By Scott Weitz @ 15:
The higher end isn’t terrible anymore. First half of the year, there was little financing above $417K. Now there’s some choices and the higher price ranges have definately picked up. I’m talking 500K – 1M, not the really high end.
It should also be noted that on a YOY basis, Seattle city is almost flat now with several MLS areas positive.
RE: The Tim @ 16 –
You Got It Tim
Sometimes I wonder if I’m reading free press or Pravda lately.
That 11,000 job loss number for November was really 255,000.
See the proof:
http://www.businessinsider.com/trimtabs-the-real-job-loss-number-was-255000-2009-12
Thank God for the internet and sites like Seattle Bubble or we’d always accept the historical trend of lies they feed us as real news. You do a great job Tim, I’m usually always in agreement of your analyses and predictions, with fantastic backup too.
And don’t get me wrong either, the 255,000 job losses for Nov per the above URL was a 10% improvement over Oct…let’s count our blessings too….but the wild eyes lies make us even more skeptical in the future, when the truth eventually gets out anyway.
http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/dont-buy-a-house-yet.html
A sane persons comments
By The Tim @ 16:
You’ve built this site and your reputation on using data and analytics to tell the story of what’s happening in real estate. I’d hate for you to start ignoring the data simply because you disagree with the government policies influencing it. Government has always had incentives in housing and will continue to do so.
RE: DrShort @ 20 – I didn’t say I’m ignoring the data, just that the market has become much more difficult to rationally predict thanks to a ridiculous amount of meddling by the government.
RE: The Tim @ 21 – Wow, more difficult than impossible! ;-)
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 13 – Yes, real estate agents do count in the unemployment numbers.
The agents might not count in the unemployment claims data, but they definitely are included in the survey.
Kary, your ability to simultaneously comment at both the WSBA Fall Real Estate Conf and here is a testament to your multi-tasking ability. ;-)
Sorry, I ment to post this on the open thread.
RE: One Eyed Man @ 24 – The first one I did when they were repeating a lengthy question from the audience. The second I was multi-tasking. It was a panel discussion, so all you need to do is listen. (Were you on-line there too?)
What’s amazing is that the first portion of the seminar was legislative and case law changes, and I already knew almost everything covered just by following posts here, as well as stuff by Jillayne and Craig Blackmon over at RCG (as well as some of my own stuff–of course).
RE: The Tim @ 21 –
I admire what you do Tim, but don’t kid yourself, free markets aren’t always that rational. Prediction of an “free” market is probably just as difficult as predicting a manipulated market, if not more so.
All other things being equal, if the referee has money on the game, I wouldn’t advise betting against him.
RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 25 –
Yeah, I usually go to that one and thought I’d try it on line for a change.
As I said at the end, I’ve taken 5 of those webcasts, and I’ve gotten a lot more out of them than if I attended live. It’s easier to stay awake.
The last two there have been a lot of on-line comments, which makes it even better.
“Shockingly, I couldn’t find a bottom call in any of this month’s pieces.”
It appears we’ve finally reached the end of the denial stage.
By softwarengineer @ 2:
Senator Bunning wasn’t shy about ripping on Bernanke. “Your time as Fed Chairman has been a failure.” “I will do everything I can to stop your nomination.”
RE: softwarengineer @ 18 – Lets analyze your “proof”: “We ***believe*** the BLS is grossly underestimating current job losses due to their flawed survey methodology.” Then they add “While we ***don’t have an answer*** today, we will be poring over the data in an attempt to answer that question.” Finally, “We will have the opportunity to ***truth our employment model estimates*** at the end of January 2010″. So, we have you pointing us to a proof that consists of beliefs resulting in unansered quesitons based on untruthed data.
Please, for the love of god, go read a book by someone that is a smart and respected great “thinker” such as Steven J. Hawking who said “Any physical theory is always provisional, in the sense that it is only a hypothesis: you can never prove it.”
What do you guys think of the latest unemployment number? I think it looks promising.
The worst month jobwise is Jan 2009 and it looks like the economy is stopping to shed jobs. Hopefully by next Spring, we will finally see job creations.
By BillE @ 30:
I don’t know how I feel about the Fed, but I sure know I don’t want to trust some clown in Senate.
“So if I understand, correctly: great low end sales due to BS tax credits, and terrible high end is a good thing?”
Great low end sales eventually will create upward pressure at the low end, thus making higher priced homes next area to recover.
RE: “Free market”. Real estate is one of the heavily subsidized markets due to various tax breaks and deductions. It was not “free” before this subsidy and will probably always be subsidized to some degree.
RE: BillE @ 30 –
Bunning has a reputation, even among the non political, as being senile, clueless,falls asleep at meetings, and as someone who babbles incoherently.
What does it mean when I agree with him on Bernanke?
RE: One Eyed Man @ 26 – Essentially trend analysis versus the Efficient Market Hypothesis.
The Tim is suggesting that there are too many EMH events that were not predicted by past trends. This basic struggle has been an underlying theme here.
By Kevin @ 33:
My feelings exactly. I really don’t understand why the voters have let these clowns stay in office. They presided over the economy too!
(On a side note, I’ve not really followed the Amanda Knox trial, but the fact that Maria Cantwell has come out complaining about the verdict, makes me think the verdict was correct.)
The fact that there were no bottom calls makes me think this might be it!
I agree with Tim that government meddling has prevented the bottom from falling out of the housing market. But I don’t share his frustration. The government action is prudent. Instead of huge, sudden declines, isn’t it better to have years of stagnation? Gradually, inflation will bring housing values to a more rational level.
Let’s not let schadenfreude influence our thinking. Yes, the Seattle housing market is still overpriced. It’s frustrating to renters who would prefer to buy. A nice 50% decline would be nice for first-time buyers. But the resulting chaos in the economy would negate any personal gains. Look at the bigger picture, continue to rent, and wait it out. Eventually you’ll be able to afford a nice home at a fair price. Just not in the next 5 years.