Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to November data,
Down 0.5% October to November.
Up 0.3% October to November (seasonally adjusted)
Down 10.6% YOY.
Down 22.7% from the July 2007 peak
Last year prices fell 2.5% from October to November (not seasonally adjusted) and year-over-year prices were down 11.2%.
Here’s our offset graph, with L.A. & San Diego time-shifted from Seattle & Portland by 17 months. San Diego’s year-over-year jumped above zero for the first time in over three years. Portland came in at -7.5%, Los Angeles at -3.5%, and San Diego at +0.4%, all better than Seattle.
Note: This graph is not intended to be predictive. It is for entertainment purposes only.
Here’s an interactive graph of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):
Also in positive YOY territory: San Francisco, Denver, and Dallas.
In November, fourteen of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities experienced smaller year-over-year drops (or saw year-over-year increases) than Seattle (same as August through October). Dallas at +1.4%, San Francisco at +1.0, Denver at +0.5%, San Diego at +0.4%, Washington, DC at -0.6%, Boston at -0.7%, Cleveland at -2.5%, Los Angeles at -3.5%, Charlotte at -5.5%, Atlanta at -6.2%, New York at -7.1%, Minneapolis at -6.8%, Portland at -7.5%, and Chicago at -8.5%.
The only other cities still experiencing double-digit year-over-year declines are Miami, Detroit, Tampa, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. Some company.
Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.
In the twenty-eight months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 22.7%, a new post-peak low.
Here’s a complementary chart to that last one. This one shows the total change in the index since March for the same twelve markets as the peak decline chart.
Seattle is actually down since March, as are Las Vegas, Tampa, and New York.
The following chart takes the post-bubble years of 2007, 2008, and 2009 and indexes each January’s Case-Shiller HPI to 100 so we can get a picture of how this year’s declines compare to last year:
Ever since August 2009 has been out-performing 2008.
Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.
(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 01.25.2010)