By The Tim on May 21, 2010
Here is your open thread for the weekend beginning Friday May 21st, 2010. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.
Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!
Posted in Open Thread | Tagged open_thread
Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.
Probably already posted somewhere on here but oh well.
“Washington state posted the largest increase in foreclosure starts overall in 2010′s first quarter versus a year earlier, followed by Maryland, Oregon and Georgia. Washington state also posted the largest rise in foreclosure starts that involved prime and subprime adjustable-rate mortgages.”
http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/05/19/1637568/prime-mortgages-going-bust-at.html#ixzz0oPZfah19?
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RE: BillE @ 1 –
Makes Logical Sense
In areas like Seattle where house price to household income ratios are horrifyingly high; it’s slamdunk repossesion rates will be horrifying too.
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I stumbled upon a trustee sale outside of the King Cty. Admin. Building today. I have no valuable thoughts to share, but I do wonder – is wearing a windbreaker a requirement to participate?
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Krugman turns bearish! Well, he hedges a bit- says we’re only headed for a lost decade. . . or two, or three, like Japan. Japan is not Greece either, but they are just as dead.
I really love the part where he says we’re not doing enough, we need more deficit spending (sic) to get this suck’r fired up! Heh. What a tool.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/21/opinion/21krugman.html?adxnnl=1&ref=opinion&adxnnlx=1274476207-GJ+6fOXmv3zsnh3fykfMDg
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RE: Scotsman @ 4 – Krugman is not just a tool, he is the king of all tools. He’s saying we’re going to be like Japan UNLESS the government spends MORE.
He’s working off some theory that can’t actually work in the real world. Like communism. Great idea that doesn’t work.
Maybe he’s arguing that the .gov should deficit spend as an investment in growth engines. (DrShort’s point about “useful debt”). I haven’t really picked that up from his writing, but let’s assume. It’ll never happen that way.
The reality is that when you tell the .gov it can spend, it will put that money into special interests and entitlements. Those are good for buying votes to get elected but add nothing to the long-term economic condition of the country. They will not invest much in long-term growth engines.
That’s especially because new industries do not have a lobby group to serve since they do not exist yet. That’s why defense contracts or subsidies to help an aging automotive sector limp along will always beat investments in, let’s say, the US nanotechnology industry.
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To Kary and Ira –
Thanks for your advice on Wednesday’s open thread. Very good. It looks like an RE agent costs about $600 to start + $1,000 per year in fees. I guess I’ll take an online RE agent course next week to get a license before the deadline.
I’d like to do agent work only episodically though, during times between contracts in my day job. Months would go by without any transactions or activity on my part. Do you know what brokerages would find that acceptable? It looked like Rockwell in Seattle was pretty laid back.
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http://poorlydressed.com/
How ’bout that pink pony dated May 17?
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RE: Fran Tarkenton @ 3 –
Yes.
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By softwarengineer @ 2:
hey, how’d you like reflation friday? the bears got crushed right when the keg got to the party. don’t worry bears, I’m buying this weekend. I know you don’t have any money left!
break out the party hats!
hey, if you guys can go nuts over one day so can I.
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By Herman @ 5:
I didn’t support it but the stimulus worked. the stimulus isn’t supposed to be long-term. that’s a straw man. it’s by it’s nature shorter-term until the economy can get on it’s feet.
some of the projects that come about will help long-term growth. roads and bridges and other infrastructure can help long-term.
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By Scotsman @ 4:
admit it though, the stimulus has exceeded even your expectations as has the economy in general.
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RE: pfft @ 9 –
The close today shows how manipulated the stock market is. No one wanted the Dow to sit below 10000 over the week end, so here we are. In my opinion that’s bad news for the economy. Once you show your hand the game is over.
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By David Losh @ 12:
why the conspiracy theories? I have a better theory that doesn’t sound so rand paul. the correction was overdone and people moved in and bought stocks. nobody knows for sure why stocks do what they do in the short-term.
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I think peter schiff put in the bottom for the euro! good job peter.
It Could Have Had Class
http://financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/schiff/2010/0518.html
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By pfft @ 10:
It’s de facto long term since it takes years to pay it back. If the stimulus does not create the economic growth to pay it back, then it was a loser. If your argument is that the stimulus was only intended to avoid the short term costs of a downside overcorrection, then you’re not on the same page with King of Tools Krugman, because you’re describing the Japan-funk scenario that he thinks more stimulus will avoid.
Yes, some percentage of it may have been appropriately allocated. Probably not very much, and that which was, probably inefficiently. I can’t name a stimulus-backed project that delivered any benefit to me, at least. Pushing money around is not the same as actually producing something useful.
Giving free money to people who will buy a new car and destroy their old one for the sake of +2 MPG is a fine example of just pushing money around.
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By Herman @ 15:
it’s not defacto long-term, it’s short-term. when it’s paid back is of no real consequence. it’s just there as an emergency.
“Yes, some percentage of it may have been appropriately allocated. Probably not very much, and that which was, probably inefficiently. I can’t name a stimulus-backed project that delivered any benefit to me, at least. Pushing money around is not the same as actually producing something useful.”
don’t give me probably. give me certainty. anyone can give me probably. show that it’s not efficiently delievered. have you even researched any stimulus projects besides cash for clunkers?
do you really think we can spend $700 billion and get nothing? that is not possible.
here is a list of projects in Seattle.
http://web1.seattle.gov/recovery/SSTHome.aspx
here is the site for the state.
http://www.recovery.wa.gov/
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RE: pfft @ 11 –
No, the stimulus hasn’t worked- its just dug us into a deeper hole we can’t escape.
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This is great, the euro crisis explained with a dash of humor:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2010/05/20/2905304.htm
From Market Ticker
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RE: pfft @ 16 –
You didn’t really say that, did you?
OK, I’ll bite
1. John Murtha airport. $800K for a BACKUP runway. The primary runway, which is just fine, serves 20 people per day.
2. Mish mentioned Perkins, OK severals months back. They had a $5 million wastewater contract, shovel ready. The .gov gets involved and the prices balloons by 50% due to all the red tape. Results in a 60% monthly increase for rate payers.
3. SSI mails $2.5 million in $250 stimulus checks to dead people, due to poor organization and hasty deadline.
4. Nevada CSA – A non profit was fired by THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT for ridiculously shoddy work on residential winterization projects. Along come the stimulus funds, and guess what? They are hired again to the tune of $2 million.
5. Optima Lake, OK – $1.15 million for a guardrail for a dry lake. The lake has never filled to more than 5 percent and is rarely visited. Even the city manager and a state senator are furious about this one.
Plenty more where this came from, and have a good weekend. Take a break, enjoy the weather. Google will still be here for you on Monday morning.
Oink Oink.
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By Scotsman @ 17:
no it hasn’t. why can’t we escape it? the debt to GDP ratio isn’t that high. it’s stimulated growth, which it wasn’t designed to do. I already showed(or krugman did) how the debt to GDP ratio wasn’t high.
the bond market doesn’t agree with you. the yield on the 30-year is below 5%.
GDP growth has been positive. the economy is recovering and growing.
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By wreckingbull @ 19:
big deal, rounding errors on a $700 billion bill. the stimulus worked. I wasn’t for it, but it worked.
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By Scotsman @ 18:
no, it wasn’t explained at all. the euro’s problem isn’t debt. it’s the currency. the UK has almost the same debt as southern europe. why doesn’t it have the same problems? the UK has it’s own currency. if it didn’t it would probably be in trouble. southern europe is caught in a deflationary spiral. austerity will only bring more problems and more deflation.
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RE: pfft @ 21 – Really? Ask the 50 million under/unemployed. They might not agree. The might find your ’rounding error’ comment a little daft too.
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It’s business. No one wanted the Dow to sit below 10,000 for the week end so money was put in, made some profits, and will be out next week.
Show me some reality. Something tangible, something other than paper profits.
I knew the stimulus was necessary. Bush started giving away money, and Obama could have dug in, collapsed the economy, and been way ahead politically. He manned up, and pushed the only recourse to keep us from a global depression.
Now that the money is out there, it’s just not doing anything. It’s more free money. It looks good on the books, but until it works, until people put the money to work, it’s just more of the same; Woo Hoo, look at my cash reserves.
This week is the end of a Euro for paper profits. Derivatives are going under the knife, and Germany stopped short selling. Venezuela did also, but for more contrived reasons. Once you take the insurance out of creating paper profits the profits go away.
The money is going back to bonds, government debt, and the United States is looking really good right now. We have the only economy that I can think of that has a mechanism for an orderly collapse through bankruptcy. We will survive, so I’m with you on that, but the global economy dream of a New World Order is collapsing.
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RE: pfft @ 22 –
You should go over to the Yahoo! boards- you might find someone over there who would take you seriously. Or maybe you already have. They think everything is a currency issue too. They wrong, but they happy!
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By wreckingbull @ 23:
we are adding jobs. the unemployment rate went up even though we added jobs because those unemployed people are looking for jobs. they do agree.
I also have to apparently keep saying this because you guys don’t listen. unemployment is a lagging indicator. I repeat, unemployment is a lagging indicator.
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By Scotsman @ 25:
greece is in a deflationary spiral. do you have some other explanation? this was predcited by those who criticized the euro. southern europe has a German monetary policy and it’s not working. again, why doesn’t the UK have problem?
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RE: pfft @ 27 –
“greece is in a deflationary spiral. do you have some other explanation?”
Yeah- they’re broke. They borrowed more than they can pay back or even service to fund a socialist government that promised more to it’s constituents than said constituents can produce. Some currency shifts may have complicated the problem but they didn’t cause it. Gazing deeply into a shallow pond doesn’t get one very far.
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By Scotsman @ 28:
explain the UK then. you haven’t, you probably don’t know what is going on there.
greece’s monetary policy is worthy of Germany and France, not a country that isn’t going to grow for 2 or 3 more years. there will be massive deflation because of the euro. wage have to drop and the economy won’t grow. the more wages drop the more the economy tanks and the more tax revenues drop. then we get more calls for austerity which leads to less growth more wage cuts and less tax revenue. it’s a vicious deflationary cycle.
what do you know about currencies anyway? didn’t you say the euro and dollar would decline against each other?
you should read this. you won’t because it’s krugman which is very sad, but you should read it.
“WAGES IN THE PERIPHERY NEED TO FALL 20-30 PERCENT RELATIVE TO GERMANY.”
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/17/et-tu-wolfgang/
wages have barely fallen though, so the deflationary spiral continues. sound like a good place to put your bond money?
the US have high budget deficits and everyone tells us how terrible it is. the 30-year is 4.3%. some US debt crisis. the UK 30 year is 4.19%.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/uk.html
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I forgot to put this in.
“nobody has labor markets that flexible. If the euro isn’t workable without highly flexible nominal wages, well, it isn’t workable.”
that’s all about the euro, not debt.
look at what is happening in estonia and latvia. their economies are WORSE than Iceland.
They Have Made a Desert
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/they-have-made-a-desert/
when wages have to fall 20% what do you think that does to the economy? what do you think that does for real estate?
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I find that whole Euro hysteria amusing. There are many amusing things but I am tired so just two:
1) Two years into the Euro 1 Euro was worth 0.825 Dollars. What is it today? Ah much more I see…
2) For those of you repeating useless numbers all day long:
Greece was off oh so bad in the EU and with the Euro
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:GreeceEconomyGDPEnglish.png
It is not that I argue everything is fine or even believe that GDP numbers have any tangible meaning when we should optimize standard of living, but if you talk nonsense: try to make it consistent at least. For the love of the flying spaghetti monster!
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By pfft @ 16:
I really think that we can borrow $700B, and spend it in ways that do not recover the cost to repay it. I really think that we can borrow $700B to buy our way out of a crash/recovery scenario, and buy our way instead into Japan-style stagnation and propping up zombie industries.
As an example, the #1 spending agency of the stimulus (see: recovery.com) is the Dept of Health and Human Services ($63B). Their number one budget item is the Medicaid entitlement ($55B). Medicaid does not drive economic growth. It does not make the US more competitive on the world markets. But I’m sure it brings in the 55+ votes.
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RE: pfft @ 29 –
“what do you know about currencies anyway?”
One thing I know about relative currency valuations that you seem to have missed is that they are an adjustment mechanism, a way of balancing out the different efficiencies and productivity of sovereign economies. They are never, as you suggest, “the problem.” Relative currency values are an affect, not a cause- they follow- they don’t lead.
The moment you say Greece needs to devalue its currency you reveal your lack of understanding. What Greece needs to do is reduce its governmental burden on the economy (taxes and bureaucracy) and become more productive and efficient. If it has a heavy governmental burden THEN its currency devalues to compensate in the face of competition. But while that makes it more price competitive on the world markets it does nothing to cure the underlying disease. It will never make Greece a booming economy and lift the standard of living for it’s people- it just puts a big band-aid or smiley face on the situation vis-a-vis the rest of the world.
Don’t worry- when you actually understand something and link several concepts together into a cogent system instead of just throwing out random bits of information I’ll recognize it. I do know that much.
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RE: pfft @ 30 – RE: pfft @ 29 –
WAR! That’s the problem with the Euro. 2000 years of war. The last World War was in Europe and the villain was Germany, the Vandals. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vandals
I used to teach a Junior Achievement class about economy and my first question was, “who were the Vandals?”
Now currency as a discussion of economy is just stupid. I understand it, but it’s stupid.
As long as we are quoting the Opinion Page of the New York Times as some basis of fact, in my opinion, currency trading is what got us into the economic mess we have today. Easy money trades became an addiction no one could resist. Financial Markets were created out of the thin air of European currency trading.
Here’s what gets me about currency trading, it’s like betting on the Society Pages of the New York Times. Currencies could fluctuate, let’s pretend it’s in the past, by what diplomat was having an affair with whose wife. The very idea that currency strength or weakness was anything, other than an extension of Aristocracy Greatness, is just laughable if it weren’t so pathetically true. The ones that suffer are the workers, and that’s exactly who you want to pay for this grand folly.
The worker is always supposed to pay. It’s the consumer, it’s the worker, it’s the home owner, it’s the savers, or the spenders, grass hopper, or ants. The Euro didn’t work because once again it was a bunch of guys dictating the next easy fix. Well that didn’t work, what’s next?
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No wonder Obama’s #1 economist Austan Goolsbee blames Wall St for the financial crisis. He now calls those loans ‘predatory’:
‘Irresponsible’ Mortgages Have Opened Doors to Many of the Excluded by
by AUSTAN GOOLSBEE
Published: March 29, 2007
Congress is contemplating a serious tightening of regulations to make the new forms of lending more difficult. New research from some of the leading housing economists in the country, however, examines the long history of mortgage market innovations and suggests that regulators should be mindful of the potential downside in tightening too much.
tal.
Lost in the current discussion about borrowers’ income levels in the subprime market is the fact that someone with a low income now but who stands to earn much more in the future would, in a perfect market, be able to borrow from a bank to buy a house. That is how economists view the efficiency of a capital market: people’s decisions unrestricted by the amount of money they have right now.
And this study shows that measured this way, the mortgage market has become more perfect, not more irresponsible. People tend to make good decisions about their own economic prospects. As Professor Rosen said in an interview, “Our findings suggest that people make sensible housing decisions in that the size of house they buy today relates to their future income, not just their current income and that the innovations in mortgages over 30 years gave many people the opportunity to own a home that they would not have otherwise had, just because they didn’t have enough assets in the bank at the moment they needed the house.â€
Of course, basing loans on future earnings expectations is riskier than lending money to prime borrowers at 30-year fixed interest rates.
As Professor Rosen explains, “The main thing that innovations in the mortgage market have done over the past 30 years is to let in the excluded: the young, the discriminated against, the people without a lot of money in the bank to use for a down payment.†It has allowed them access to mortgages whereas lenders would have once just turned them away.
And do not forget that the vast majority of even subprime borrowers have been making their payments. Indeed, fewer than 15 percent of borrowers in this most risky group have even been delinquent on a payment, much less defaulted.
When contemplating ways to prevent excessive mortgages for the 13 percent of subprime borrowers whose loans go sour, regulators must be careful that they do not wreck the ability of the other 87 percent to obtain mortgages.
For be it ever so humble, there really is no place like home, even if it does come with a balloon payment mortgage.
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Jillayne has a tweet about banks looking for agents to list REOs. The one I looked at that I like over on 55th Ave NE between 35th and 25th NE is being offered by FDIC. I called the agent and that was a waste of time. The whole REO thing is a waste of time and will be until more banks are taken over by the FDIC.
That would be something to investigate. Would it be better to wait until the foreclosures in the banks come on the market after the banks fail? I mean, what if the buyer pool wises up and stops giving banks more than top dollar for foreclosures and short sales? How many people who bought short sales this past year at those excessively high short sale prices will be walking away next year? How many “investors” who bought those over priced bank auction properties will be closing their LLCs and walking away?
If the price of property goes down this year by more than 10% what will banks be doing with those 2007 priced properties? If they sell for less, the properties they hold in their portfolios will be worth less. Wouldn’t that mean more banks are truly insolvent? Wouldn’t that mean more FDIC liquidation which would mean more bank failures?
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By Herman @ 32:
I am sure it probably helps save lives and keeps states solvent. that is a very important function. keeping people employed helps the nation.
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By Scotsman @ 33:
again, please tell me why the UK is not in trouble.
what you are saying are two things.
1. greece’s economy is sustainable with a german monetary policy. nobody should believe that. that is like saying mexico should have the monetary policy of the united states. I don’t think anyone would agree with that.
2. the 20% or more deflation in wages is a normal thing- no big deal. I don’t think that’s realistic. do you think that every time we have a boom and bust cycle that wages in greece and etc. should fall 15% or more to bring costs in line? I don’t think that’s realistic either. you do.
this is what we are dealing with.
“WAGES IN THE PERIPHERY NEED TO FALL 20-30 PERCENT RELATIVE TO GERMANY.â€
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/05/17/et-tu-wolfgang/
not sustainable.
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RE: pfft @ 38 –
My gawd you’re dense. How can you know so much about what I think when you don’t even comprehend what you yourself think? You completely miss my point.
Here’s a question- there are at least two things Greece can do to improve its competitive position relative to Germany. One is to devalue its currency 25%. Now, name at least one other.
P.S. Forget Krugman- as a paid tool for the current administration he will teach you nothing except the latest talking points. The cognitive dissonance he must be experiencing will soon drive him to drink.
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RE: pfft @ 38 –
Good Gawd is right. Let me be more clear that the krugman opinion is that the people in the South need to work for cheaper so the people in the North can maintain their life style. It’s been the same for thousands of years. The Germans have this superior intellect, you see, they are the master race, so of course all the people around them should work harder to keep them happy.
It’s a typical racist argument.
Just to put things into perspective we have the same thing with Mexico. They have so much so, the theory is, they should just give it to us. We are descendants of the master European race so we are entitled. It’s called an entitlement mentality.
Then you can look at England who, even with their own currency, are in very, very bad trouble economically. They are a socialist country, with extremely limited resources, that have an economy based mainly on entitlements. They may be OK today, but as time goes on the rich will get more, and more stingy. Geez, go ask the Queen for some money, and see what happens.
Good Gawd, get a clue.
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By Scotsman @ 39:
“Now, name at least one other.”
lower wages which just brings on a deflationary spiral.
why won’t you answer my UK question? this is the third time.
“Forget Krugman- as a paid tool for the current administration he will teach you nothing except the latest talking points.”
so krugman is a paid tool of the obama administration? more rand paul conspiracy theories from you.
if you’ve read any krugman at all you know that’s not true. he’s criticized obama on reagan, healthcare, the stimulus and other issues.
He Wasn’t The One We’ve Been Waiting For
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/20/he-wasnt-the-one-weve-been-waiting-for/
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RE: pfft @ 41 –
What’s the facsination with krugman, it’s an opinion.
As for England it’s asked and answered. They are in very bad shape and still have the entitlements in place that need to be paid. Top of the Google search for you: http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/united-kingdom/uk-economy-2010-forecast.html
and little further down
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5927645.ece
They have a currency, so what?
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Have any of you been tracking the availability of rental properties?
My family has outgrown our very nice apartment close to downtown and we’re looking for a house North of the Montlake Cut (Ravenna, Bryant, Wallingford, Ballard, Phinney.) I’m paying attention to single family homes, 3+bdrm, between $2,000-2,500/month.
I’m amazed at just how many properties are listed for rent. Many of them are also simultaneously listed for sale, but often overpriced as rentals and sales.
Any thoughts on where the rental prices are heading? Or, any way to compare the current (what I perceive to be a glut) in homes for rent with past availability of rentals?
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By David Losh @ 34:
I have no time to search for something in English but there have been exhibitions in Tunesia (where they settled), France(where destruction by the vandals mainly happened) and Germany about the Vandals that all paint quite a different picture. Here is a link to a German article titled “We know the vandals through their opponents only”.
http://www.newsclick.de/index.jsp/menuid/2184/artid/11635164
Here is a part:
“Der Begriff Vandalismus ist recht jung. Er kam im 18. Jahrhundert in Frankreich auf. Die historische Grundlage ist der Zug der Vandalen durch das damalige Gallien zwischen 406 und 409 nach Christus. Dabei kam es zu Pluenderungen. Es gibt auch Berichte von Zerstoerungen von Kirchen aus dieser Zeit. Doch die stammen von Geistlichen und sind wohl aufgebauscht, zumal die Vandalen damals selbst schon christianisiert waren – allerdings hingen sie dem arianischen Glauben und nicht dem roemisch-katholischen an.”
A rough translation:
The term vandalism is rather young. It was first used in 18th century France, The historical basis is the migration of the vandals through former Gallia between 406 and 409 A.D., when there was plundering by the Vandals. There are also reports of the destruction of churches which have been embellished by the clergy. One has to know that the vandals already were Christians but that they were not Roman catholic.
The French exhibition I know of I focused on their art and technology, which were described as superior to that of other tribes. As far as I know the German exhibition can still be visited in the “Badisches Landesmuseum Karlsruhe” in southwestern Germany.
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RE: Daniel @ 44 –
History of the Vandals as known to late 20th Century Americans (that would be me).
Announcer: [ over scrolling SUPER ] “Among the barbarian hordes who sacked and pillaged their way across Europe during the waning years of the Roman Empire, no tribe was more notorious than The Vandals, a Germanic people driven westward by Celtic expansion during the Fourth Century A.D. The Vandals established a Kingdom in Gaul, where they quickly became the most feared tribe in the known world – that is, the world as it was known at that time. In saying this, we do not mean to take anything away from the Visigoths, Lumbards, Huns, Francs or Ostragoths. These nomadic groups were certainly terrifying in their own way. But the Vandals.. were unbelievable.”
[ dissolve to a Roman encampment covered with toilet paper ]
[ SUPER: "A Roman Encampment - Somewhere Near The River Elbe - A.D. 419" ]
[ a pair of juvenile Vandals run into the scene, ??? ]
Vandals: Centurion! Centurion! [ they run ]
[ Centurion exits his tent ]
Centurion: Hello! What’s going on out here, who is it? [ looks down to discover the fire in front of his tent ] Oh, no! [ stomps the fire out with his foot, squirting excrement across the grass ] Ohhhhhh! Oh, no! Now, who would do a thing like that?! Guard! [ Guard steps forward ] Give me your sword! [ takes Guard's sword and scrapes the excrement off the bottom of his sandal ] These are my new sandals! Awww! Guard! Who’s responsible for this?!
– Skit plays out with the capture of a young vandal named Brad Gundricks before the transcript continues below. –
Centurion: [ as the Gundricks depart from the scene ] You are very lucky to have parents like those, Brad. you listen to them! They’re good parents! [ with the Gundricks now out of sight, Centurion turns to his Lieutenant ] Lieutenant.. have the three of them put to death. And cut off their heads and put them on some poles out in front of the camp.
Lieutenant: Right, sir.
Announcer: [ over SUPER ] “It was easy to kill a few Vandals, but not so easy to kill.. an idea. Throughout the course of Western History, vandalism has remained a major force in civilization. And so long as man erects monuments, with imagination and ingenuity.. there will be those who spray-paint them, and knock them over.”
http://snltranscripts.jt.org/79/79avandals.phtml
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RE: One Eyed Man @ 45 – RE: Daniel @ 44 –
I originally thought the Euro was a good idea. I still think NAFTA, and a North American, One World, New World Order kind of thing is a good idea. The problem is war. Remember the Alamo?
In Europe they have been at war for thousands of years. The Vandals may have been the greatest people on earth, the problem is getting every one to agree on that.
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RE: Scotsman @ 25 – Pot, Kettle….
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By pfft @ 37:
OK – now we’ve come to the core of it. That statement is precisely the problem. Creating employment for its own sake is not a reason to borrow money. The output of investment and employment has to keep the US in a competitive position on the world market, or else we will eventually be at the bottom of the world economy, with the standard of living down the tubes.
Borrowing money to push it around the economy and eventually out of the country via our trade deficit is really harmful. Suppose the .gov borrowed $10,000 and paid it to you dig a hole and then fill it back up, and then you spent the proceeds on a German BMW and the middle-east oil to fuel it. How would that benefit the prospects for America? And I’m sorry to be cold about it, but borrowing $10,000 to extend the life of an 80 year old by buying German drugs for him is little better than hole-digging and filling when it comes to the economy.
The US has been described as having a “Massage Economy” (http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/2120783.The_Post_American_World). Saying that our economy is based on paying ourselves to give each other massages is a colorful way of describing this; paying people to dig holes and then fill them back up is another.
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RE: Scotsman @ 33 –
“One thing I know about relative currency valuations that you seem to have missed is that they are an adjustment mechanism, a way of balancing out the different efficiencies and productivity of sovereign economies. They are never, as you suggest, ‘the problem.’ ”
While I would agree that you’re knowledge of currency valuation and markets probably exceeds mine as well as Pfft’s, the above statement is an exaggeration of the wisdom inherent in any market’s contemporaneous spot price including the foreign exchange markets. Debt may be Europes biggest problem, but the need to unwinding carry trades, speculation and other perversions move markets in directions counter to the fundamentals of the home countries economy.
Have you ever watched the show House Hunters International when they look for property in Europe? Although the information is purely anecdotal, I fail to see economic fundamentals reflected in the pricing they show. A million euros buys you a 300 yr old 2000 sq ft stone chocolate box with water damage and no kitchen cabinets in some rural French town named for bad smelling cheeze. I don’t have anything against Europe, except maybe the price. But it couldn’t be the exchange rate because the forex markets can’t be wrong.
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RE: One Eyed Man @ 49 –
You’ve now hit on the problem. It is the same all over the world, only it’s worse in Europe. That French Farm House is still worth $148K American, but it’s price is a Million Euros. The Euro started our at .80 to the dollar, now, today, after the collapse, it 1.24. So that maybe makes the farm house worth $170K, but it has a mortgage of a Million Euros. The farmer can’t pay, the investor can’t pay, the foriegn speculator can’t pay. Bonds, the carry trade, the stock market, the Pension Funds, are all based on that farm house being worth a Million Euros. It’s not.
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RE: Herman @ 48 – RE: Scotsman @ 17 –
Without question there were a lot of things wrong with the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (the “Stimulus”). But to this point in time, the impact of the Stimulus isn’t necessarily as pathetic and ill conceived as your comments make it sound. As the following quote shows, it isn’t impossible to build a reasonable and objective case that the Stimulus was both needed and successful. The CBO and other economic analysts have the following conclusions regarding the Stimulus.
“One year after the stimulus, several independent macroeconomic firms including Moody’s and IHS Global Insight estimated that the stimulus saved or created 1.6 to 1.8 million jobs and forecasted a total impact of 2.5 million jobs saved by the time the stimulus is completed.[63] The Congressional Budget Office considered these estimates conservative.[64] The CBO estimated 2.1 million jobs saved in the last quarter of 2009, boosting the economy by up to 3.5 percent and lowering the unemployment rate by up to 2.1 percent.[65] The CBO projected that the package would have an even greater impact in 2010.[65] The CBO also said, “It is impossible to determine how many of the reported jobs would have existed in the absence of the stimulus package.”[66]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Recovery_and_Reinvestment_Act_of_2009
See also: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2311303720100223
From a purely academic standpoint, there are at least two common sense theories that would support deficit spending for the Stimulus without relying upon either Keynes or Laffer (I include Laffer because after all about 40% of the Stimulus was tax cuts not additional spending). First, I believe that Krugman’s support for Stimulus is founded at least in part upon his theoretical belief in the need to create a psychological environment to promote inflation. My understanding is that he believes market inflation is driven as much by psychological expectation as it is by underlying economic fundamentals (i.e. supply and demand). I’m not going to cite any of his work, and my understanding is based upon limited exposure to his writings on Japan, liquidity traps etc. so my conclusion may not be accurate.
But before dismissing the psychological importance of stimulus, remember that (if I recall correctly) Shiller traces formation of the housling bubble largely to psychological factors which can probably be summarized as an irrational belief by those in the market place that housing prices would continue to rise.
Second, 15 months ago, there was a substantial fear that the US economy might enter a deflationary spiral. Most would agree that markets often over react and over compensate at both the top and the bottom of market cycles. While the Stimulus required an increase in the deficit, it arguably dampened the downward turn in the economy. Although we have yet to see if the economy will continue to grow once the Stimulus stops in 2011, the 5% negative GDP of early 2009 has been at the very least, interrupted.
The relevance of stopping both deflation and negative GDP (without resort to Keynsian multipliers) lies in the feedback loop nature often attributed to these economic conditions. Economic contraction begets more economic contraction. As the economy contracts, jobs are lost, businesses contract and the economy contracts even further. Stopping the “feed back loop” of economic contraction has value by stopping the continued decline even if it doesn’t result in a “Keynesian multiplier” of growth. Just because the diving plane doesn’t quickly gain altitude doesn’t mean that leveling off has no value. 5% of GDP over 2 to 3 years probably isn’t an unreasonable price to hedge the risk of a spiraling further decline.
The CBO estimated the long term effect on GDP after 2014 to be between -.2% and zero primarily from capital no longer available for private investment due to the deficit nature of the Stimulus. At that rate, we’d be better off for at least 15 years before potential future negative impacts eat up a single year 3% increase in GDP.
The Stimulus, like TARP, was one more insurance policy to hedge the risk of downward economic spiral. You may disagree that the cost was worth it. But at this point, your position is based largely upon theory and academics. Although the game may not be over, so far the facts say that the economy is no longer contracting. By that standard, the Stimulus is a success at least so far.
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RE: One Eyed Man @ 49 –
Sure, currency markets bounce around just like the equities markets and can be manipulated or knocked off balance for short periods of time. And there is a tension between international market relationships and existing domestic market structures that exerts its influence. But over even a period of months they do a pretty good job of capturing and/or reflecting the relative productivity and efficiency of the countries they represent. The main role of floating currencies remains to balance or or adjust for differences between sovereign entities.
I’m no expert on foreign housing markets but it’s a stretch to compare say French home prices to U.S. home prices and then tie the majority of the differences to currency valuations. What about different cultural preferences and norms, financing options, and governmental influence through taxes, etc? Have you tried to get a pay option loan in Italy lately? Has Hong Kong money driven B.C. home prices to the moon recently? Your statement raises more questions than it answers.
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RE: One Eyed Man @ 51 –
The vast majority of what you say is true, but it misses a critical point. Yes, government fiscal stimulus (spending) has leveled the economy and saved some jobs, but it hasn’t done it on a permanent basis by creating growth and stability in the private sector. Thus the frequent comparison to a junkie or alcoholic. The buzz has felt good, but it isn’t going to last indefinitely and unless we get another hit, and another, and another, etc. the crash and the pain will still come. And here’s the news flash- we can’t afford to continue supplying the hits. So the crash is still going to come, just not on this watch.
It’s time to come “clean”- balance the budget, clean out the body (debt), and get healthy again.
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By Herman @ 32:
Actually, MedicARE provides funding for patients over 65+. MedicAID is a joint federal and state funded program, and the $55B was payments to the individual states to partially make up for the decrease in state tax revenues (income, property, sales) that resulted from the nationwide housing and employment crises. In the absence of these payments, Medicaid programs would have had to drastically cut services. Medicaid payments to states help fund health care programs for those living in poverty and children under 18 years of age. Medicaid funding also provides quite a bit of the reimbursement that hospitals receive for providing emergency care (including trauma) to the uninsured. If you believe: 1) we should not provide healthcare to children of parents who have lost their jobs because of bankers’ greed, and 2) allow hospitals (mostly state and county) that provide emergency care (especially trauma centers) to go bankrupt and shut down; then yes, the largest portion of the stimulus was a waste.
(Sarcasm warning) I agree, we should just let 8-year-olds die if their parents cannot afford to pay for the appendectomy. I agree, we should close Harborview so that police officers or firemen injured in the line of duty, pedestrians hit by drunk drivers, and victims of violent crime have to suffer the consequences of their actions.
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By One Eyed Man @ 49:
Do not trust house hunters Europe on any of that.
In most of rural France you can buy an old house in need of repair for much less and new construction for a fifth of the price you mentioned. I just now looked at some of the nice tourist locations in Burgundy, en Provence, in Normandy, the Loire or Rhône valleys etc. and in none of them would you have to spend what your house hunters international experience may suggest. You can do your own research with just a few words of French at this location:
http://www.explorimmo.com/recherche-vente.html
So pick your favorite city and just start searching. Note that the area will be in square meters (one square meter is a little more than 11 square feet), that you can enter either rooms (pièces) or bedrooms (chambres). Ancienneté specifies how old the building is (old, recent or new) and the options are to many for me to translate.
Ah all of this makes me want to travel to Burgundy and enjoy some good food and nice wine. I traveled there with my parents from the age I was 2 on, just about every spring or fall.
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RE: One Eyed Man @ 51 –
I agree with Scotsman @ 53, you’re arguing the wrong point. The question at hand is whether to take Krugman’s advice and borrow/spend even more, on the basis that it would ignite economic growth and avert a Japan-style lost decade.
The stimulus aimed to trade acute short term impact for a mild long term impact. The CBO has shaved percentage points off GDP growth estimates going forward. Borrowing more money to pay hairdressers and buy Chinese knick-knacks is not a viable strategy for economic growth.
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By jj @ 54:
Lame. Criticizing the stimulus is now attempted murder of children. Just like criticizing Bush’s war bills was attempted murder of our Troops.
You, jj, have just committed the propaganda crimes of the nazis and you are worse than ten Hitlers.
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By jj @ 54:
subsidies
overhead, find efficiencies, and solicit private donations.
that the stimulus should have been focused on economic growth programs rather than feel-good moral handouts, entitlements, and special interests
As I said, a stimulus that is mostly waste is inevitable.
jj, you are absolutely free to donate your own money to those causes. Please don’t force my children to pay for your moral imperatives simply because you chose not to, or because your generation could not provide them within your own means.
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This is really simple. You have a real economy, and a paper economy. The real economy is housing, food, health, and energy. From that you get transportation, hygiene, and sustainable resources, like monitoring the fishing industry.
It’s simple. The are no complicated formulas of theory. You can talk about going to the moon, or astronomy, but the reality is we have people to feed, shelter, and make sure we keep a killer plague from wiping out the human race.
When you mention Japan, the economy there was decimated by the price of property. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble
A broader reference http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate_bubble
Look at property when you want to talk economy. There is farm land, Industrial, manufacturing, warehousing, commercial, retail, and housing. The economy goes up, pricing goes up, the cost of goods goes up. On the way down the price of goods goes down, but the debt service on the properties remains the same.
In Japan the people continued to pay mortgages on over priced housing units. You’ll notice that, in the reference, they refer to asset pricing. It’s all across the board. The people of Japan are paying mortgages on farm land, industrial, commercial, retain, and housing units. The money these savers have in the bank then goes outside of the country to make investments. Guess, just guess what the investments are.
In theory, when you invest in the stock market you are investing on a package of assets, commerce, and blue sky. Microsoft shifted that because the biggest asset they have is intellectual property. That opened a lot of doors to paper trading as if that paper was an asset. The paper was only as good as the asset it represented. Now those asset, based on Real Property, are worth less, much less, globally.
The best part in this thread is where there is a debate about the price of farm land in France. We don’t know the price of farm land in France, but it is a matter of speculation. Mexico’s closer so let me use an example from there. A walled hectare in Mexico was built with the hacienda for $225K. It went up in value, based on written offers to purchase to $900K. It’s now worth about $275K, maybe $325K based on an appraisal by the University of Washington.
People were willing to buy for $900K in 2006 by taking American equity into Mexico. What’s that like in Europe? What’s that like with the value of the Euro going up in value? I’ll speculate that it’s 10 times worse there, than it is in the United States. I’ll bet the value of the Euro, based on asset values, will decline sharply.
You see, it’s simple like that.
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RE: Herman @ 57 – RE: Herman @ 58 –
(Sarcasm warning), he started with that.
Health, Medicaid, Medicare, Health Insurance, the PIMA medical program, nurse, doctors, equipment supplies, cotton, surgical steel, do I really need to make a list of the largest, and fastest growing segment of our economy?
The stimulus isn’t a debate, it’s a reality. Deal with it personally. I personally want to employ every person in the United States who wants a job. Thank Gawd there is government money out there to do that. If we left it to the bankers they would bleed us dry, Oops, they already did that, and now they want more.
Bush I and II, Bush I was the New World Order guy, Bush II was the guy who tried to make that happen, created a global crisis by fixating on giving good buddies business. Bush I and Bush II should go down in history for the bumblers they were, but they won’t. The guys who tried to clean up the mess, Clinton, and Obama, will take the rap.
The stimulus can create millions of jobs, but way too many people are dogging rather than working. The Conservatives, the Party of No, are trying to destroy this great country to prove Obama, you know the African American, was wrong to follow through with the Bush I TARP program, by providing the stimulus.
It’s like the Republicans are more concerned about building a Bush I, and Bush II library as though they were anything like Ronnie Reagan. Clinton did much more to push the Reagan agenda than either Bush.
Stop whining, and start working. We are in the best position to create wealth than we have been since the 1970s. You will either build a future for your children or wait for the government to do it. If you wait, you will be waiting a long time.
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By David Losh @ 60:
You misunderstood where he placed the sarcasm. He didn’t want anyone to think he really “agreed” with my intent to kill 8 year olds.
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RE: Herman @ 61 –
I got it.
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By David Losh @ 60:
So what about Health Care as a long term growth engine? Businessweek wrote about this (in 2006! – before the recession):
“John Maynard Keynes would nod approvingly if he were alive. Seventy years ago, the elegant British economist proposed that in tough times the government could and should spend large sums of money to create jobs and stimulate growth. His theories are out of fashion, but substitute “health care” for “government,” and that’s exactly what is happening today.
Make no mistake, though: The U.S. could eventually pay a big economic price for all these jobs. Ballooning government spending on health care is a major reason why Washington is running an enormous budget deficit, since federal outlays for health care totaled more than $600 billion in 2005, or roughly one quarter of the whole federal budget. Rising prices for medical care are making it harder for the average American to afford health insurance, leaving 47 million uninsured.
Moreover, as the high cost of health care lowers the competitiveness of U.S. corporations, it may accelerate the outflow of jobs in a self-reinforcing cycle. In fact, one explanation for the huge U.S. trade deficit is that the country is borrowing from overseas to fund creation of health-care jobs.”
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_39/b4002001.htm
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RE: Hugh Dominic @ 56 –
I generally agree. To some degree I was playing devils advocate. Although I would have voted for some form of stimulus at the time of the Recovery Act, I’m generally in favor of substantial cuts across the board in federal spending. The only growth in spending I’m currently in favor of is some version of the Picken’s Plan. And although it would have an immediate stimulus effect, I think its primary benefits lie in improvement of the balance of trade and diversification of our energy use to hedge the economic impact of increases in global oil prices.
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RE: Herman @ 63 –
Interesting. You’re forgetiing about the military.
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/health_care_chart_10.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
What the United States should be doing is exporting Health Care the way they do the military, or maybe instead of the military.
The government is in charge of military spending, but that doesn’t prevent Boeing, Bell Helicopter, Colt, Haliburton, ship yards, suppliers, or lobbyists from making money.
Is health care in the United States a joke, meaningless, make work projects, you bet. The focus of the government should be to export health the way we impose our drug policies.
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RE: One Eyed Man @ 64 – I totally agree.
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RE: Scotsman @ 53 – Scotsman – What do you think that all countries get together and say it is time for a nice fresh start without debt. All debt should be printed right away and we should just start clean and fresh.
And then we can get into a new debt.
Just basically riding the debt bandwagon like this.
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RE: Trigger @ 67 – I think this article says it all. We should print, and then print some more. Leave deficits to deficit hawks. Basically print and hike and enjoy good weather. Relax. Basically there is still not enough printing going on. As such the rates just keep on dropping.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/21/opinion/21krugman.html?adxnnl=1&ref=opinion&adxnnlx=1274476207-GJ+6fOXmv3zsnh3fykfMDg
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global warming news.
U.S. National Academy of Sciences labels as “settled facts†that “the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activitiesâ€
New report confirms failure to act poses “significant risks”
http://climateprogress.org/2010/05/19/national-academy-of-sciences-america’s-climate-choices-global-warming/
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pfft @ 69
(((((((((((((((PANIC)))))))))))))))))
The sky is falling……………………………………
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RE: Trigger @ 68 –
While Americans simply declare bankruptcy during hard times, such a solution isn’t so easy in Japan. Once again, cultural pressure is to blame. Japanese have been allowed to seek court protection for decades, and starting in 1999 the rules were relaxed to make the legal process faster and cheaper. Hence, more Japanese are summoning up the resolve to declare bankruptcy. Some 160,000 people a year are doing so, up from 70,000 in 1987, according to Seiichi Yoshikawa, an attorney with Koga & Partners in Tokyo. But the Japanese Federation of Bar Assns. figures as many as 1.5 million Japanese are effectively bankrupt but unwilling to file. Says Yoshikawa: “[Personal bankruptcy] is regarded as close to a crime in Japan.”
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By Herman @ 57:
I take offense at your comments. If my clearly stated sarcasm offended you, accept my apology. But, I have an opinion that differs from yours, and therefore I am worse that 10+ Hitlers? I support freedom of speech, but your comparison (or attempt at topping my sarcasm) falls well below civilized conversation. I am calling you out. You are rude, and you are a bully.
Good day.
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By David Losh @ 71:
That sounded really familiar.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/02_22/b3785141.htm
7th paragraph.
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By Herman @ 58:
About a third of the “stimulus” was basically funding state run programs to maintain social and economic stability. In particular, Medicaid payments kept hospitals running, kept doctors, nurses, and ancillary staff employed, and made sure that “victims” received medical care. Without government guarantees that ERs receive (what amounts to minimal) reimbursement for underinsured/uninsured patients receiving emergency care, trauma centers would require proof of ability to pay before providing care; without the guarantee, if you were unconscious from any sort of injury, and your insurance card wasn’t in you pocket, you wouldn’t receive treatment. I admit – it’s not that clear a line between providing care and not, but… what the last 75 years of US government (elected by the citizens) has decided is that part of providing for the common welfare is making sure that hospitals, especially Trauma Centers, stay open. They provide for the common good by providing emergency services to children, cops, firefighters, and victims of accidents and violent crime. I can’t imagine how that aspect of the the stimulus spending could be considered a waste… (certainly I am not making the argument that the healthcare system is not broken, i witness the insanity of its f***ed-upness every day at work)
Other aspects of the 1/3 of the stimulus that went to support state budgets included monies to pay salaries for men and women in the National Guard, teachers, police, firefighters, and costs associated with state colleges and universities. The “stimulus” funds directed towards the states were not provided to stimulate the economy. Money was given to the states because our government (elected by the citizens) made an assessment that if states had to make cuts in social programs, police and fire services, and education relative to the drop in state tax revenues, there was an intolerably high risk of social instability (aka Greece). Money was given to banks because there was judged to be an intolerably high risk of a domino effect of bank insolvency which had the potential to wipe out our economy.
I agree that there is bound to be waste in the stimulus, just as there is waste in all government function, waste in all private business function, and waste in every day of all of our lives. It does peeve me seeing how inefficient the government can be at spending my tax money; I would like the government to make me proud of how they spend my taxes. In some areas they have. For example, the VA health system (and Medicaid) provides care with 4% overhead (really no room for improvement there) while the private sector does the same for less complicated patients at a staggering 31% overhead – that a 675% markup on overhead costs in the private sector.
The problem with the politics of our government is that our elected officials behave in a binary decision tree; supporters of a bill say it is 100% efficient and the detractors say it is 100% waste. For you to say the stimulus is mostly waste is not reality, it’s an educated AND biased opinion. When it comes down to it, policy CANNOT be a binary choice – black or white, good or evil, 100% waste or 100% efficient.
So while I do feel that some of the stimulus spending is ridiculous, I am also quite grateful that no one is throwing firebombs on my car or burning down my place of employment. Maybe we could both agree with that?
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RE: pfft @ 69 –
Let’s see- Climate Progress is a “project” of the Center for American Progress Action Fund, run by John Podesta, guided by Madaline Albright, Wesley Clark, Linda Chavez, Bob Kerry, Tom Daschle, etc., in short a whole host of old Clinton types. I wonder if Al Gore has their phone numbers? I wonder if George Soros helps out with the funding? I wonder if there’s an agenda behind their “revelations?”
Anyone who believes in anthropomorphic global warming probably believes we’re in a sustainable recovery too. Sorry, still no sale.
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Is there a way to “short” this Federal Way condo project?
http://www.mynorthwest.com/?nid=11&sid=324051
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RE: Scotsman @ 75 –
I’m no global warming fan Scotsman, but your attack on the report by linking it to the Center for American Progress Action Fund lacks substance. The politicians didn’t write the report they just cited its conclusions. The “Brief Report” states that these people were appointed by the National Academy of Sciences to write the report:
“Panel Membership: Pamela A. Matson (Chair), Stanford University; Thomas Dietz (Vice Chair), Michigan State University, East
Lansing; Waleed Abdalati, University of Colorado at Boulder; Antonio J. Busalacchi, Jr., University of Maryland, College Park;
Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, California; Robert W. Corell, H. John Heinz III Center for Science,
Economics and the Environment; Ruth S. Defries, Columbia University; Inez Y. Fung, University of California, Berkeley; Steven
Gaines, University of California, Santa Barbara; George M. Hornberger, Vanderbilt University; Maria Carmen Lemos,
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor; Susanne C. Moser, Susanne Moser Research & Consulting; Richard H. Moss, Pacific
Northwest National Laboratory; Edward A. Parson, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor; A. R. Ravishankara, National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration; Raymond W. Schmitt, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution; B. L. Turner, II, Arizona State
University; Warren M. Washington, National Center for Atmospheric Research; John P. Weyant, Stanford University; David A.
Whelan, The Boeing Company; Ian Kraucunas (Study Director), National Research Council.
The National Academies appointed the above panel of experts to address the specific task,
sponsored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The members
volunteered their time for this activity; their report is peer-reviewed and the final product
signed off by both the committee members and the National Academies. This report brief
was prepared by the National Research Council based on the committee’s report.”
http://dels.nas.edu/resources/static-assets/materials-based-on-reports/reports-in-brief/Science_Report_Brief_Final.pdf
If you’ve got some evidence that the above individuals, the National Academy of Sciences and the peer review panel are all in the bag for the politicians, I’ll read it, but the fact that the politicians you named cited the report is all but entirely irrelevant to the merits of the report. The press release and the brief report appear to say pretty much what Pfft claims.
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By Pegasus @ 70:
you’ll find many groups that see this as a problem. hunters, firefighters and even the NHL.
NHL Ices Global Warming
http://www.sportsfanlive.com/hockeystop/entry/nhl_icing_global_warming
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By Scotsman @ 75:
another hysteric al gore rant.
do you know who wrote the report? it’s very telling that you dismiss the science and scientists while going off into left(ok right field, tea party rand paul right field) field to criticize al gore. you’re anti-science.
hottest decade on record! you can’t dispute that.
Past Decade Warmest on Record, NASA Data Shows
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/22/science/earth/22warming.html
don’t worry, it’s just a coincidence I’m sure.
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By Herman @ 48:
but we aren’t doing that.
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By Scotsman @ 53:
I guess you don’t really understand the concept of stimulus. it’s supposed to bridge the gap between collapse and recovery. it’s done that. I was against it but it has done that. that I can admit.
” we can’t afford to continue supplying the hits.”
and you have absolutely no market evidence to support this. bond yields are low. the dollar is higher. every time a crisis flares up the dollar goes up and bond yields head lower. the US is a good credit. it will have no problems paying it’s bills. I am not saying this, the market is. bond yields will rise when the economy shows signs of strength.
the economy has grown in addition to the stimulus provided. if you back out the stimulus lately the numbers are still positive.
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By jj @ 72:
Well, it was precisely 10 Hitlers that you were worse than, we can round down.
I think I get to be the offended one here, since you asserted that my position on the stimulus was equivalent to killing 8 year old children. I thought I’d highlight your logical fallacy of Appeal to Emotion (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_emotion) by whipping out one of my own, namely the Reductio ad Hitlerum which you can read about on the same page.
By jj @ 74:
See, there, you’re doing it again. This time you’re saying that my position on the stimulus would lead to such disarray that it must lead to a breakout of domestic terrorism; arson. Same logical fallacy, but this time an Appeal to Fear. Now you have us held hostage by a group of firebomb-carrying citizens for whom we must pay protection bribes and set our national policy.
You agree that permitting the .gov to borrow and spend a brand new $700B over two years will result in waste and inefficiently applied resources. I agree with that; let’s say that 15% goes into well-executed growth programs, and 85% is lost on limited-return entitlements, make-work, and poor administration. When you add the cost to service the debt, this is a really bad investment.
We may have averted a depression, but at a tremendous cost, and one that should not be amplified per Krugman’s position.
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[...] This is a part of a longer discussion on a blog site called Seattle Bubble at http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2010/05/21/weekend-open-thread-2010-05-21/#comment-101662 [...]
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By Herman @ 82:
See, there, you’re also doing it again. You take a single quote, clearly sarcasm, out of the context of the entire post, and dismiss the rest of what i say. I will make sure to use no sarcasm in this post. Then again, you “creatively” make up statistics to sow fear and hatred of our government by saying that 85% of the stimulus is “lost.” Based on multiple posts of yours in the past, I would have guessed that you are a libertarian, but at the same time I’m really not sure… I fail to see how the method of your argument is much different than how GB II, Cheney, Rush Limbaugh, Glenn Beck, and the rest of Fox News do business. Repeat a lie enough times and people begin to believe it. Enjoy the tea party.
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