Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

57 responses to “Memorial Day Weekend Open Thread (2010-05-28)”

  1. David Losh

    The military is an honorable profession. I’m grateful for all the people who chose to defend our country.

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  2. Trigger

    Wow – The stock market is zooming – maybe today Dow looks off 65 points. But it is over 10,000 points. So it is red hot market. Yesterday it was a sizzle.

    US debt looks good compared to Greece or Belgium or Spain and even UK.

    Printing presses are performing well so far.

    Time to hike and relax.

    Affordability in many cities like Napa, CA or Santa Cruz, CA is at an all time high. So things are going well? How is affordability in the NW now compared to 2000?

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  3. Trigger

    RE: David Losh @ 1 – It is a honorable profession which should be avoided if you value your life and having limbs all in the right places. And of course you have to take into account that the govt will tell you who to shoot and who to not shoot.

    Having said that military is really important because there are rogue states out there like North Korea and they have to be kept in check.

    Hopefully in the future you will send robots and not real people to fight wars in rogue states.

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  4. David Losh

    In the mid week thread Scotsman mentioned the National Debt. That was the thing that Ronald Reagan often quoted. I blame both Bush I and Bush II for today’s debt crisis and found this You Tube while researching that:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a9Syi12RJo

    I was surprised by the reference to the September 11 speech made by George the First from 1991? and that there is material concerning the Middle East as the reference of the New World Order.

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  5. Kary L. Krismer

    By Trigger @ 3:

    Hopefully in the future you will send robots and not real people to fight wars in rogue states.

    With drones and cruise missiles we already are. And although this F16 is being converted for different purposes, will it be long before it’s a combat device?

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/aerospace/archives/208004.asp

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  6. Sir Prized

    Big surprise. As if no one saw it coming. Fitch downgrades Spain today. And, oh yeah, the US economy is doing great, and what happens in the rest of the world can’t possible affect us here. Despite that the UK housing market crashed one year before ours did.

    And nevermind that after Greece and Spain default on their debts, we’ll see the same thing happen to Portugal, Italy and probably the UK and Ireland. This couldn’t possible touch the US economy, or affect our real estate market in any way.

    Impossible! Trust the bombardment of news on TV and the radio that the US economy is coming back to life. Don’t listen to your inner conflict. Breaking out beyond the consensus view is EVIL. You don’t want that, do you?

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  7. Sir Prized

    RE: Sir Prized @ 6 – Just a footnote: These defaults were primarily caused by credit default swaps (CDS) that were unpayable by banks, due to the size of the payouts. Europe’s banks are therefore, currently, 100% insolvent (bankrupt). They are being propped up artificially by bailouts, for a more strategic time. What time would that be? Watch the legislation that’s coming down from up high.

    You are going to hear all sorts of fantastic reasons why Europe’s banks collapsed. None of these theories will involve CDS’s because the CDS’s were engineered to bring down large economies. No one in their right mind allows for the possible insurance payout of more than $500 trillion dollars. That’s eight times the GDP of the entire planet. This was definitely planned. Notice that no government is being allowed (by the IMF and World Bank) to simply write the debt off, and wipe the slate clean, despite that this is a real option. That’s the “tell,” in case you ever play poker.

    I received an email from the CFR’s monthly newsletter this morning: “Michael Hodin and Robert Butler write that Greece’s fiscal meltdown wasn’t just caused by carefree government spending; it reflected the aging of the country’s population. The debt crisis is a warning of the aging crisis that is coming to every country in the world.”
    Read the article at http://www.cfr.org/publication/22195/

    This opens the door to the UN population growth control legislation that’s been talked about for decades. Let;s see what other creative reasons they can come up with, to push their interesting agendas.

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  8. softwarengineer

    RE: Sir Prized @ 6

    The New Wave of International Purchased Wives is Changing

    It used to be Russian and Latino potential wives were begging for American sugar daddies….now include UK ones too.

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  9. Sir Prized

    By Trigger @ 3:

    RE: David Losh @ 1 Hopefully in the future you will send robots and not real people to fight wars in rogue states.

    Realize that everything we create that is harmful to human beings will ultimately come around to be used back on the creator, or the creator’s relatives later on in the future.

    Mankind, and especially Americans, do not live on a island in outer space that cannot be touched by the evil that men do. It’s all connected, no matter how much a person may not like it.

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  10. Sir Prized

    By softwarengineer @ 8:

    RE: Sir Prized @ 6

    The New Wave of International Purchased Wives is Changing

    It used to be Russian and Latino potential wives were begging for American sugar daddies….now include UK ones too.

    Where do I buy? Post the URL please.

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  11. Betsy

    RE: David Losh @ 4

    I recently watched the movie I.O.U.S.A. (clip here: http://www.iousathemovie.com/), very clear, simple, engaging and IMHO non-partisan take on the debt. It’s from 2007 but the DVD had some updates and a very interesting town hall with members of the Peterson foundation, Warren Buffet, CATO institute, etc.

    I don’t know about that new world order clip – grasping theory I think. But the American people sure did lap up Bush 2’s tax cuts and expensive wars. Nowadays politicians can’t cut the most expensive programs or raise taxes without getting their heads blown off from voters or special interests.

    Can anyone remember a time when the American people and the politicians did the right thing and not just the selfish thing? The movie talks about folks buying savings bonds to help pay for WWII – I’m only 30 but I can’t remember a time in my life when folks regardless of political party banded together in such a way. I suspect this non-partisan cooperation is what it will take to combat the debt (sigh).

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  12. softwarengineer

    RE: Trigger @ 2

    Trigger, Stocks Tanked Today

    Congress wants $79B more for unemployment extensions….perhaps that’s the lagging indicator job creation the blurry eyed pundits dream up.

    What scares the Hades out of me is all the toxic oil spewed on America and they also predict a bad hurricane season, IMO, likely flooding America’s seaside lands [100s of miles inland?] with oil and oil thinner chemicals?

    When you eat your fish dinner this holiday weekend and it came from the south, now you have to worry about more things in it than just mercury. The fumes alone along the American south coast water front property will probably give you cancer. And its heading for Florida, if the oil goes around Florida and gets caught in the Atlantic currents…..New York? Even Europe?

    But the oil spill is minor and won’t affect the Seattle economy at all….LOL

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  13. Daniel

    By David Losh @ 1:

    The military is an honorable profession. I’m grateful for all the people who chose to defend our country.

    “murder, which in the case of an individual is admitted to be a crime, is called a virtue when it is committed wholesale. Impunity is claimed for the wicked deeds, not on the plea that they are guiltless, but because the cruelty is perpetrated on a grand scale.” — Cyprian of Carthage

    “Soldaten sind Mörder” – Kurt Tucholsky (“Soldiers are murderers”)
    Tucholsky also called soldiers “professional murderers” and soldiers dying for their country “murdered murderers”.

    As the publisher of this quote by Tucholsky, Carl von Ossietzky (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carl_von_Ossietzky) was trialed but found not guilty in 1932. He later died of wounds from emprisonment in a Nazi concentration camp, as he continued to express his opposition against any war and refused to leave Germany as he considered that surrendering to the Nazis.

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  14. Lake Hills Renter
  15. Markor

    RE: Betsy @ 11

    Thanks for the movie clip; looks good.

    I’ve been thinking lately that the debt isn’t so dire. On a really macro scale it’s like an underwater homeowner, except when the gov’t eventually defaults, the people get to keep everything that borrowed money bought. (Just let the Chinese et al try to take it back.) America can severely reduce its spending when absolutely needed; massive waste is everywhere. After the country defaults (or even before) and a severe global depression is upon us, prices will be so cheap that people and the gov’t won’t need to spend nearly as much. They won’t be working as much either, and that counts for something. There will be lots of losers and strife, but after a global reset America won’t be in debt any more, and the rich won’t be as rich as before. I’m confident we’ll retain our democracy (such as it is) and taxes on the rich will be far higher after the dust settles.

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  16. Scotsman

    It’s all good. There is no reason to be depressed. But if you are, take two “Pfft” and call me in the morning.

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  17. pfft

    By Scotsman @ 16:

    It’s all good. There is no reason to be depressed. But if you are, take two “Pfft” and call me in the morning.

    just going with the data that’s given.

    your call of another economic crash by 6-11 next year is more hope than any reasoned analysis backed up by lots of historical data. the interest payments as a percentage of GDP are not that high and won’t be.

    The Dogbert theory of the debt
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/30/the-dogbert-theory-of-the-debt/

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  18. pfft

    By softwarengineer @ 12:

    RE: Trigger @ 2

    Trigger, Stocks Tanked Today

    Congress wants $79B more for unemployment extensions….perhaps that’s the lagging indicator job creation the blurry eyed pundits dream up.

    is job creation lagging or leading?

    it’s clearly lagging but I’d like your thoughts. the GDP decline and recession ended in August of 2009. the stock market bottomed in March of 2009. many other indicators turned up before or around that time.

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  19. BillE

    http://heraldnet.com/article/20100527/NEWS01/705279829
    “Homeowners at a loss
    Effort to help families avoid foreclosure has fallen short”

    Sounds like they want us to feel sorry for these people. What a load of crap. It’s a classic example of borrowing too much, using a house as an ATM, and getting burned.

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  20. wreckingbull

    RE: Markor @ 15 – Every bit of exposure David Walker gets is a good thing. Thanks, Betsy. I don’t have kids, but I refuse to take that attitude and hand the next generations a smoldering pile of dung. The time to fix things is now, not after the collapse of our nation.

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  21. Dirty_Renter

    RE: wreckingbull @ 20
    David is often on Squawk Box on CNBC in the early am.
    It’s not politics, nor a left v right thing, but simply a fact…either we take care of the deficit/debt on our terms, via entitlement/military/other/ cuts or the bond vigilantes will; and if we choose the latter, God help us.

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  22. wreckingbull

    RE: pfft @ 17 – Not unlike the missing shift key on your keyboard, Krugman’s graph is also missing an important piece. Please call him on your rainbow-colored bat-phone and have him provide us the rest of that graph. You know, that part that continues on from 2019. All you have to do is look at the trend where his graph conveniently ends to see where we are headed.

    This is the problem when idiots like him try to mix politics and economics. They just end up looking stupid.

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  23. David Losh

    RE: Betsy @ 11

    Thank you for a very good clip. There are two things missing, and the first is the George Bush no new taxes results. The second is that the clip only addresses the Iraq war from Bush IIs term.

    The war itself is only mentioned as if it is the only expense we have from a presence in the Middle East. The clip never looks at our importation of oil. The war in Iraq, and to some degree our presence in Afganistan, are a direct result of protecting our oil interests.

    Oil is mentioned as a part of the trade deficit. What happens if we just say, hey, we have our own oil, we can create other energy resources here in our country, and make energy a National Interest Issue?

    The debt is nothing, according to the clip, if we just become self suffecient. If we were to employ every American that is able to work for one decade, which we can, we would be in the black.

    Also, the military budget is losing money. We dump war products around the world without a return on that investment. In my life time I have heard two descriptions of the military. It either defends the American way of life, or it exports, the American way of life.

    What’s only ever mentioned in passing is that in Iraq there is a program that partners with war lords who want to make money. Iraq is the center of all trade in the Middle East, and as Americans, we refuse to invest in the economy. Where is there higher ground, taking a profit for our efforts there or killing people?

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  24. David Losh

    RE: BillE @ 19

    The ATM, own a home is a bad thing, diatribes are just stupid. Were you really that smart for not buying a home? No, you were confused, nothing more.

    What if we were in a period of inflation right now? What if the price of goods were going up by double digits right now? What if inflation was so out of control that the National Deficit didn’t matter?

    This site would still be called the Seattle Bubble, but the focus would be different.

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  25. pfft

    By Dirty_Renter @ 21:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 20
    David is often on Squawk Box on CNBC in the early am.
    It’s not politics, nor a left v right thing, but simply a fact…either we take care of the deficit/debt on our terms, via entitlement/military/other/ cuts or the bond vigilantes will; and if we choose the latter, God help us.

    the 30 year is under 5%.

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  26. pfft

    .

    This is the problem when idiots like him try to mix politics and economics. They just end up looking stupid.
    By Dirty_Renter @ 21:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 20
    David is often on Squawk Box on CNBC in the early am.
    It’s not politics, nor a left v right thing, but simply a fact…either we take care of the deficit/debt on our terms, via entitlement/military/other/ cuts or the bond vigilantes will; and if we choose the latter, God help us.

    the 30 year is under 5%.

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  27. Gruel

    By Betsy @ 11:

    RE: David Losh @ 4

    I recently watched the movie I.O.U.S.A. (clip here: http://www.iousathemovie.com/), very clear, simple, engaging and IMHO non-partisan take on the debt. It’s from 2007 but the DVD had some updates and a very interesting town hall with members of the Peterson foundation, Warren Buffet, CATO institute, etc.

    Since when are Warren Buffet, CATO Institute, amd Peterson Foundation non-partisan? When I say “non-partisan” I mean pro-Consitution vs. Fascist/Communist, because those are the only two parties that I see that exist in the USA right now.

    Guess what turns out to be EXCEPTIONALLY PROFITABLE for fascist big corportion/government? Communism. You really believe these folks you are assuming are objective are “non-partisan”? You really believe there’s any difference whatsoever between a democrat and a republican politician? These people are funded by the same central bankers. Haven’t you dont any research at all?????????????????

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  28. pfft

    By wreckingbull @ 22:

    RE: pfft @ 17 – Not unlike the missing shift key on your keyboard, Krugman’s graph is also missing an important piece. Please call him on your rainbow-colored bat-phone and have him provide us the rest of that graph. You know, that part that continues on from 2019. All you have to do is look at the trend where his graph conveniently ends to see where we are headed.

    This is the problem when idiots like him try to mix politics and economics. They just end up looking stupid.

    so an economist can’t post a graph? that is such brilliant insight. the person mixing politics and economics is you and your krugman bashing. you can’t stand the fact that the deficit isn’t going to be a problem. by your answer I assume you are conceding the deficit won’t be a problem in the next ten years?

    where we are heading can be changed, that’s what you don’t get. the debt just needs to be stabilized.

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  29. pfft

    Congressional Deficit Hawks Act to Slow Growth and Destroy Jobs
    http://www.cepr.net/index.php/blogs/beat-the-press/congressional-deficit-hawks-act-to-slow-growth-and-destroy-jobs/

    “The plans by the deficit hawks seem likely to trim $30 billion in unemployment benefits and aid to the states from the bill…this will correspond to a job loss of more than 300,000 people.”

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  30. wreckingbull

    RE: pfft @ 27 – I’d say that is about right. This decade will be our own lost decade, with continued high unemployment, increased social unrest, and stagnation. Starting about 2020 is when the debt gets to a point where it truly starts to cause the dissolution of our nation and quality of life as we know it.

    Hate to break it to you, but by then, it will be way to late to turn things around.

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  31. Kary L. Krismer

    The debt most of you are focusing on can practically disappear with inflation. It’s the obligations under SS and Medicare that wouldn’t (absent major changes) and which could cause problems. And that was a concern 10 years ago too, even before much of the existing debt was created.

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  32. Trigger

    RE: Sir Prized @ 7 – Sir Prized – There is always a way out debt. You can default and start over again. So you default and start borrowing again. Some people might not like this.

    The alternative is you print and give back debt with printed money.

    So there is always a way out.

    The monetary base is being lost because of fear so additional printing is cool.

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  33. Scotsman

    I wouldn’t worry about any debt- the 30 year is under 5% and has even been falling. Spain’s coming default is getting the attention, taking the pressure off. It’s a good thing. Smoke a little weed, take a little hike, visit the ladies. Ummmm Hmmm.

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  34. Scotsman

    RE: Trigger @ 31

    “There is always a way out debt. You can default and start over again.”

    So right on, brother! And don’t worry about that little old lady who held the debt for her retirement- my peeps in the .gov will take care of her by issuing some new debt. At least until we can’t. Who cares about old debt holders anyway.

    Hey, how about that hike? What’d ya’ll think about that Am. Idol upset?

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  35. wreckingbull

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 30 – Very true. In this case I use the term ‘debt’ to mean both our actual debt, and unfunded obligations. In the end we are simply talking about financial promises we can’t keep.

    For those of you that think that we can just keep borrowing until we can’t pay, default, and then start over, what do you think that will do to interest rates? After the ‘great default’ or ‘great reset’ you all refer to, do we then start borrowing at 40% to finance our bankrupt entitlement programs? I don’t think a massive default would be the cleansing, refreshing experience you think.

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  36. Daniel

    By pfft @ 27:

    you can’t stand the fact that the deficit isn’t going to be a problem. by your answer I assume you are conceding the deficit won’t be a problem in the next ten years?

    where we are heading can be changed, that’s what you don’t get. the debt just needs to be stabilized.

    What you preach is no solution its perpetuating the problem. The meaningless GDP does not capture the shrinking middle class and growing poverty. If we print/inflate our way out the “recovery” is paid by everyone, slow and creeping, while keeping up the illusion that the system itself is healthy and transferring huge amounts of interest from the general public aka the taxpayers to the wealthy few. There is two ways this can end: With reform or with the guillotine.

    “When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty. ” — Thomas Jefferson

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  37. buystocks

    By pfft @ 18:

    is job creation lagging or leading?

    it’s clearly lagging but I’d like your thoughts. the GDP decline and recession ended in August of 2009. the stock market bottomed in March of 2009. many other indicators turned up before or around that time.

    Can truly only answer this in hindsight (in a coupe more years), otherwise your just speculating. Your trying to create rules(lagging etc.) where there truly are none(you’d need thousands of years of data to attempt to derive any significant correlation to argue for lagging conditions; ie. an n of less than 10 isn’t gonna prove anything).

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  38. Trigger

    RE: Scotsman @ 34 – Scotsman – You are right on the mark. Who cares about the debt holders?

    But in order not to make them angry you have to kind of make a sell pitch to the old debt holders. For example you can say that in order to stabilize the world economy which is also in the interest of the old debt holders – you will be issuing new papers. This should not be a big deal because monetary base is smaller now compared to 2 years ago. And you have to smile a lot and pat people on the back. Tell them that we are rolling hard and the old debt holders will witness remarkable history etc.

    And then you are right. You get rid of debt by printing or defaulting. And then you go for a hike a relax. You tell people to take on more debt ASAP so the economy starts moving again.

    The problem is if old debt holders smell something rotten going on. So in order to prevent this – you print cash in chunks. So people kind of get used to the printing schedule. You should not do too many things at one time.

    And you just hike and relax. That is if you live in the NW. In DC you go for a walk to the park or maybe you try to relax on the beach somewhere.

    I think the solutions do not have to be so painful. Scotsman – tell me if I am completely wrong here. I think this is what the current administration wants to do anyways.

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  39. DavidB

    This isn’t really news to us but the NW is getting national attention now (not in a good way).

    Bank Contagion Spreads to Northwest

    “Observers said the damage on bank balance sheets and bottom lines is intensifying because the economy of the Pacific Northwest often lags behind the rest of the U.S. by as much as a year.”

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703957604575272333920494398.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

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  40. DavidB

    The Amityville Horror House is up for sale.

    If I was interested in living in NY I’d look into buying it and turning it into a bed and breakfast and rent it out for special events. I’m sure that kind of thing would appeal to some.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/05/28/peta-aims-to-rent-amityville-horror-house/

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  41. BillE

    By David Losh @ 24:

    RE: BillE @ 19

    The ATM, own a home is a bad thing, diatribes are just stupid. Were you really that smart for not buying a home? No, you were confused, nothing more.

    It’s not about who bought and who didn’t. It’s about a newspaper running a sob story article about a couple who shot themselves in the foot. They refinanced every couple years and increased their debt on the house by 43%. Now they can’t afford it. The refinance activity was not mentioned in print. The article only says they can’t afford the house and the mean banks won’t do a loan mod. That’s BS.

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  42. Trigger

    RE: Scotsman @ 34
    Scotsman – I think if the US and the West take the route that they will live within their own means, the govt will spend what it can afford, take on debt to invest and follow general conservative economics THEN it will be nasty. People who were riding new BMWs will have to ride in Honda Civics, houses will be built smaller, people will not splurge on vacations. This means high unemployment for a very long time. People will be upset. They had a good time, they spent a lot, they know how to consume. Asking those people to live within their own means is absurd.

    So if you take the route that you have to consume more than you produce and you do not invest much because it is a pain THEN
    – YOU Need to PRINT and then print some more
    – HIKE and relax

    Basically the alternative that you propose is a good one but it is painful. Nobody wants a painful alternative. People like raises, more good products on the market etc.

    Look at Latvia. They were consuming like crazy just like the US and moved to conservative economics. What did it do to them? Now they barely make ends meet. Do you want this for the US? You can get out of this recession by printing and on the back of China and the rest of the world. IMF preaches conservative economics to other countries – but you do not want to follow what it preaches at all costs.

    Now with this potentially messed up approach there is an issue. Countries such as China may sniff that sthg is foul and will want to produce the toys for their own people. This will a big whammy for the US. So you need to smoke them and send them the US flag. You can tell them that we know how 3rd world countries struggle and we can send them some IMF experts to tell them how to run their economy. This could be equivalent of modern slavery. 1 country works to produce lots of goods for another country for peanuts.

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  43. Scotsman

    RE: Trigger @ 42

    Well, half the light has come on. You’ve figured out that the needed correction will be nasty, forcing people to live well below their means for some time causing all sorts of adjustments in employment, lifestyle, government programs, and other measures of our standard of living. What you haven’t grasped yet is that the printing/default option you favor leads to the same sort of pain- it just comes in through a different door.

    Math is math. There is no magical escape from the concept and consequences of differential exponential growth where debt service or monetary expansion is involved. Once that snowball starts to roll there’s no stopping it. But you should be happy- there’s going to be a lot more hiking and much less working and buying.

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  44. Trigger

    RE: Scotsman @ 43
    Scotsman –
    Why do you think that:

    What you haven’t grasped yet is that the printing/default option you favor leads to the same sort of pain- it just comes in through a different door.

    What if:
    1) You smoke investors that you are gearing up to create a big project. You send China the American Flag and tell them that you will send some IMF experts to monitor their spending.
    2) You send some experts that will talk about some banking regulations etc.
    3) You tell everybody that you are ramping up spending on a temporary basis but you will be careful at some point and as IMF preaches – the US will set the gold standard for spending.

    And then you ram like that for say 20 years. Investors will forget, China will be fine and everybody will be happy.

    Effectively this would be welfare at the expense of other countries like China.

    Is such a project feasible? Some people will say that math is math and people will demand now from the US to follow what IMF preaches. But generally you can smoke people for some time and this can be good at times. You can go thru some good times.

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  45. Trigger

    RE: Trigger @ 44

    Also if you choose the printing option. How long can you do it and at what rate to keep the investors smoked up?

    Basically you need people to work for you but you do not want to give value back. Earlier in the slave era – look at what mansions people were able to build – e.g: Charleston, SC. Or look at all the nice European monuments. People could build it because the king or slave owner had cheap or free labor. So workers built nice mansions and got peanuts back. In such a scenario – the king or slave owner thought it was a good deal.

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  46. Daniel

    By Trigger @ 44:

    Effectively this would be welfare at the expense of other countries like China.

    It would be throwing a snowball that will trigger an avalanche. US companies, retirement funds, etc, are all invested heavily overseas. Also China is not even the biggest creditor: the biggest is Japan, who has even more outstanding debt. Guess what they would do in such a situation…

    I am not saying that can not happen but I agree with Scotsman: The outcome of all three scenarios is the same. Too bad Scotsman is trapped in the ideological pit when it comes to conclusions from what he sees.

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  47. Ira Sacharoff

    Just another day in Lynnwood:

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2011994648_accident31m.html

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  48. Scotsman

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 47

    Hmmm. I wonder if they had to aputate the injured parts. It sounds like the angle of his dangle was off, or something.

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  49. Coloradoan

    Is the crappy weather causing anyone to re-think living in Seattle? Its going to be in the mid 80s here in Colorado for the foreseeable future. Housing prices are cheaper here too. Even in Boulder.

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  50. BillE

    Someone should have invested in a good holster.

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  51. Scotsman

    RE: Coloradoan @ 49

    No, we’re all really happy here. F you. ;-) In fact, we’re having a very joyful, soggy Folk Life Festival and Memorial Day Weekend, filled with liquid sunshine. Can’t beat that. Normal sunshine causes cancer. You’re probably going to die from it in your cheap house. Or get caught in an avalanche going to work. Besides, we’re all too far “under water” as they say (oh, the irony) on our mortgages, so we couldn’t leave if we wanted to. Which we don’t. Really. Well, sort of. Please!

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  52. pfft

    By Scotsman @ 33:

    I wouldn’t worry about any debt- the 30 year is under 5% and has even been falling. Spain’s coming default is getting the attention, taking the pressure off. It’s a good thing. Smoke a little weed, take a little hike, visit the ladies. Ummmm Hmmm.

    spain is not going to default. you’re wishing as opposed to some well-thought idea.

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  53. pfft

    By Daniel @ 36:

    By pfft @ 27:
    you can’t stand the fact that the deficit isn’t going to be a problem. by your answer I assume you are conceding the deficit won’t be a problem in the next ten years?

    where we are heading can be changed, that’s what you don’t get. the debt just needs to be stabilized.

    What you preach is no solution its perpetuating the problem.

    if you stabilize your debt levels there is no problem!

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  54. pfft

    By buystocks @ 37:

    By pfft @ 18:
    is job creation lagging or leading?

    it’s clearly lagging but I’d like your thoughts. the GDP decline and recession ended in August of 2009. the stock market bottomed in March of 2009. many other indicators turned up before or around that time.

    Can truly only answer this in hindsight (in a coupe more years), otherwise your just speculating. Your trying to create rules(lagging etc.) where there truly are none(you’d need thousands of years of data to attempt to derive any significant correlation to argue for lagging conditions; ie. an n of less than 10 isn’t gonna prove anything).

    thanks for the stats lesson. I get what you are saying but unemployment for all intents and purposes is lagging.

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  55. pfft

    By Scotsman @ 43:

    RE: Trigger @ 42
    Math is math. There is no magical escape from the concept and consequences of differential exponential growth where debt service or monetary expansion is involved. Once that snowball starts to roll there’s no stopping it. But you should be happy- there’s going to be a lot more hiking and much less working and buying.

    I can’t say it enough but the burden of debt service is only in your head. you’re wishing it was a problem. it’s not a problem. our debt service costs aren’t even at 1990s levels when the economy was booming.

    you can stabilize debt levels. that seems to be all the market needs. you can do that by cutting back spending and/or having the economy grow. you don’t see that but it’s happened in many countries.

    Joke Europeans
    http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/22/joke-europeans/

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  56. Betsy

    RE: Gruel @ 27

    Talking to thin air I think – but this whole bit about pro-Consitution vs Fascism/Communism is ridiculous. Forget the debt/deficit, the lack of civility in this county is the real problem and I might add a product of the media. Calm down you will feel better.

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  57. David Losh

    RE: pfft @ 52

    Spain will default in a heart beat, if it could, and it should. That’s a no brainer. Spain was never going to go along with the European carp. If the countries of Europe gave the government of Spain money, they were fools. The same goes for Italy. Portugal? For get about it.

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