By The Tim on September 27, 2010
Here is your open thread for Monday September 27th, 2010. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or a topic you’d like to see covered in an article, please make it known.
Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!
Posted in Open Thread | Tagged open_thread
Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.
This weekend I was walking around a shopping center (here in FL) and there was a booth with a product called Nudura. A Canadian made Styrofoam type building material that goes up like Legos (more on this later). But I was surprised (and by now I should not) that when I asked how long it took to put a house up (obviously much faster than cinder block – main material in the South), the rep replied: “well, for the average 3500-4500 sq.ft. Florida home, 3 days with a 3 guy crew”. I was in shock by the speed and that this guy thought 4000 sq.ft. was an average size home!!!
By the time the guy selling the rain harvesting kits showed me his water calculations based on a 5000 sq.ft. home, I was embarrassed to ask; “what about 1800sq.ft.??”
This Nudura product looks cool. While a wood frame home has an R value between 7 and 10, this product offers an R of 25 to 40. Good weather and noise insulation. Super light to transport and handle; and when in place, it gets filled with cement.
http://www.nudura.com/EN/HomeOwner/whatisnudura.aspx
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One thing we haven’t talked about much here are the potential problems with tracking paperwork and specifically titles in foreclosures. KD has been writing about the potential problems with MERS for some time. I recently saw that both FL and CA have made efforts to stop all foreclosures where titles may be not be properly assigned, transferred, etc. Here are some links for anyone interested in looking into this growing problem:
http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=167527http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=167527
http://market-ticker.org/cgi-ticker/akcs-www?post=167583
I know some of these issues vary with state law, and have no idea where WA stands. What is becoming obvious is that the issues are not as clear-cut as many first assumed and awareness of a huge potential problem is slowly growing. Kary??
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anybody hear of this happening? is this possible?
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2010/09/painting-real-estate-tape-bogus-housing.html
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RE: Scotsman @ 2 – I’m not really up on MERS. Those issues were just starting to arise in bankruptcy court when I was getting out.
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RE: rockstar728 @ 3 – We’ve talked about that before, and without having access to their MLS I can’t say for certain, but most likely those are just canceled or expired listings that were then sold at a foreclosure auction. In the NWMLS the agent would not update the price to reflect the auction price, and it wouldn’t be included in the sold stats.
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Charles Hugh Smith weighs in on the housing bottom. Looks like he agrees with many here- 2014 and then a decade of essentially zero growth. A pretty eve-handed presentation that will seem familiar to many here:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept10/housing-bottom09-10.html
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RE: Scotsman @ 6 –
To emphasize- this is very well written- a great summary of the issues involved, probably the best I’ve run across.
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I have a friend (true story) looking for a real estate attorney for advice on whether to turn the keys to their underwater townhouse back to the bank. anyone have a recommendation I can pass along? Thanks in advance
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By Scotsman @ 7:
“This guy is THE leading visionary on reality. He routinely discusses things which no one else has talked about, yet, turn out to be quite relevant months later.”
–Walt Howard, commenting about CHS on another blog.
With references like these, I can see why. Who the hell is Walter Howard? And what is the other blog?
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RE: Flotown @ 8 –
First, atty’s are expensive so an hour to go thru the hoops will probably cost $200 just to get a general overview. If the atty needs to review docs or write letters, the price just goes up and often very quickly. Second, I haven’t personally delt with any of these people but I know they work in that area.
Ed McFerran, Tacoma 253-284-3838
Craig Blackmon, Seattle 206-357-4222
Lynn Arends, Seattle 206-769-5966
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Sorry everyone, I totally spaced about July’s Case-Shiller being released today when I was writing the FHA post last night. The usual monthly Case-Shiller post will run tomorrow. Seattle was up 0.1% June to July (no surprise given the expiring tax credit), down 1.6% July ’09 to July ’10.
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By The Tim @ 11:
I don’t understand the “no surprise” comment. The tax credit ended in for sales closing in June (subject to the short sale exception added later), so even dealing with the 3 month moving average issue, the expectation would be for a slight decline, because one of the three months would have been with no tax credit at all, and one of them many sales where the tax credit wasn’t involved.
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I just finished reviewing the Estimated Closing statement for the sale of one of my investment homes.
My friendly realtors’ commission is twice the size of my net proceeds.
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By Haybaler @ 13:
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RE: David S @ 14 – 9% is more typical, assuming 6% in commissions.
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From my FB page:
Me: “It’s interesting that in reading the Seattle P-I and Seattle Times, you wouldn’t know that the Case Shiller index for Seattle has now gone up 5 months in a row.”
Ira: “You’d only find stuff like that out by going to optimistic sites like the Seattle Bubble :)”
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http://www.cbc.ca/fp/story/2010/09/28/3589986.html
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RE: The Tim @ 11 –
Maybe we’ll see a YOY gain next year..
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By Scotsman @ 6:
we’ve already got growth.
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By Lurker @ 18:
that’s the trend.
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RE: pfft @ 20 –
not out of the question but only likely if the upcoming YOY losses are not worse than last.
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By Kary L. Krismer @ 12:
“The data is collected from a month ended two months ago, in today’s case, July. That data is from public sources for CLOSED sales, NOT then current contracts. So the currently reported data represents sales that happened mostly in two months before that, which would be May. Then that data is aggregated with the data collected in the two previous months, for sales contracts from the 2 months before that (March and April), and reported as an average price for the 3 months. The theoretical midpoint of the data reported now is from 3½ months ago, representing the average contract price from roughly 5½ months ago. In other words, today’s CSI represents average selling prices as of the MIDDLE OF APRIL when the homebuyers’ tax credit was still skewing the market upward.”
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2010/09/28/the-trouble-with-case-shiller/
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RE: Lurker @ 22 – You’ve pointed out a problem with how stale C-S data is, but that still doesn’t explain the issue. The contracts to be tax credit sales had to be entered into before the end of April, and close before the end of June. Thus, fully 1/3rd of the closed sales C-S looked at for the July data were not tax credit sales. Another 1/3rd were reduced tax credit sales. I don’t see how that leads to an expectation of higher C-S data. If anything, it would be exactly the opposite. Unlike the median, C-S data shouldn’t be affected by the change in mix.
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My mistake, I misread your previous comment. I see what you are saying and agree.
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