Redfin: Market Still on Pause in October

Full disclosure: The Tim is employed by Redfin.

Last week Redfin released their October market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

“The majority of buyers I am working with are not in any hurry to purchase, but want to take advantage of the lower house values we see in the winter,” said Cheryl McLaine, a Redfin agent in Redmond and Kirkland. “On the other side, sellers who have been on the market for over several months with regular price drops seem to have little financial room to negotiate.”

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in October is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Although the overall sales volume was pretty pitiful, a number of zip codes did see month-to-month sales gains. The biggest winner in King County was Woodinville (98072), which saw sales nearly double from 10 in September to 19 in October. King County’s biggest decline was in Renton (98055), where sales fell 50% from 14 in September to just 7 in October. Once again, very few neighborhoods saw year-over-year sales gains.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in October in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

  • King: 98115 — 40 sales.
  • Snohomish: 98012 — 57 sales.
  • Pierce: 98387 — 66 sales.
  • Thurston: 98501 — 38 sales.
  • Kitsap: 98367 — 23 sales.

As is common for this time of year, inventory declined month-to-month in almost every neighborhood. Year-to-year was a little more mixed, with many neighborhoods showing gains, but many others actually down from 2009.

The median price was down in most neighborhoods from a year ago, while the median price per square foot fell in even more neighborhoods.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

20 comments:

  1. 1
    Lurker says:

    “The majority of buyers I am working with are not in any hurry to purchase, but want to take advantage of the lower house values we see in the winter,” said Cheryl McLaine, a Redfin agent in Redmond and Kirkland. “On the other side, sellers who have been on the market for over several months with regular price drops seem to have little financial room to negotiate.”

    That really nails it. With projected low GDP and high unemployment for many more years this is going to be a long and slow torture. Buyers want lower prices but so many sellers have limited wiggle room. It’s a Mexican standoff but one where the ground that the buyers are standing on is slowly eroding.

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  2. 2

    If the Conglomerate County Local Car Dealers and Furniture Wharehouses saw Total Dinky Monthly Unit Sales

    Like the recent county SFH sales numbers The Tim has documented; we’d be in a full fledged depression. But SFH sales numbers don’t mean anything, they’re just lagging indicators, like the chronically high unemployment rate….LOL

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3
    Ahau says:

    Still on pause? Is falling like a stone the new flat?

    Of course, I’m speaking in broad terms, as my neighborhood was up 5% MoM for ppsqft and up 7% MoM for median.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4

    […] can also dive into a local discussion about our reports on Seattlebubble.com, YoChicago.com or the Bay Area’s […]

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. 5
    ray pepper says:

    the last couple threads have been funny to read…….

    The way I sum things up is what I believe Jack Nicholson said in Batman…”this town needs an enema…….”

    Lets clean up this mess over the next decade so we can start all over again..But, and more importantly, play these next 10 years right, shift gears, and you will be looking very good in 2020.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6
    Drone says:

    By Lurker @ 1:

    It’s a Mexican standoff but one where the ground that the buyers are standing on is slowly eroding.

    Wait, what? How is the buyers’ ground eroding again?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. 7
    Cheap South says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2

    Actually, car sales are up. And Christmas sales are expected to be up. Not looking for an argument here; just stating what car makers and the retail association have announced.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. 8
    Lurker says:

    RE: Drone @ 5

    Oops, i meant sellers. Thanks.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. 9

    RE: Cheap South @ 6

    When You’re Knee Deep in Cow Manure

    A half inch less manure is no improvement. Check auto sales “flat” at about 6 million units for 2009/2010, WSJ article chart:

    http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html

    Here’s the grim 2007 auto sales report, article in part:

    “…Full-year 2007 sales dropped almost 3 percent to 16.14 million vehicles…2007 U.S. Auto Sales Dimmest Since 1998…”

    http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2008/01/04/074386.html

    LOL Cheap South, and you think auto sales flat at 6 million units [a 63% reduction from 2007, the worst auto sales since 1998] in 2010 is looking up? I’d bet money, population adjusted, the Great Depression auto sales were better than the last couple years.

    Believe everything you read.

    http://www.autoobserver.com/2009/01/2008-us-auto-sales-are-worst-since-1992.html

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. 10
    Timmcb says:

    Redfin: Market Still on Pause in October

    Funny I thought it was on rewind, not pause. Hopefully not for too long though; it might burn an image into the screen.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  11. 11
    Ross says:

    By Lurker @ 1:

    With projected low GDP and high unemployment for many more years this is going to be a long and slow torture.

    GDP will be at an all time high for 2010; and then higher in 2011. Slower growth != low.

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  12. 12
    One Eyed Man says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 8

    WSJ apparently moved to Denmark because something’s rotten in their graph.

    “Last week, J.D. Power and Associates said 2010 annual sales would be near 11.5 million, up from 10.4 million vehicles in 2009. But it cut its 2011 sales forecast to 12.9 million from a previous forecast of 13.2 million vehicles.”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/39838026

    Also, if you add the vehicle total’s for cars and light trucks in the table below the WSJ graph, the WSJ year to date total is over 9 million thru October.

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  13. 13
    Lurker says:

    RE: Ross @ 10

    Thank you for the correction. GDP growth.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. 14
    Notorious ART says:

    RE: Lurker @ 1
    ” It’s a Mexican standoff but one where the ground that the buyers are standing on is slowly eroding.”
    HAHAHA, I’m in a Mexican standoff with a seller right now and I’m actually Mexican…..My wife and I found a house that we like and put in an offer, but the seller is playing games not wanting to lower their price. It really doesn’t matter to me, if the deal isn’t there I’m fine with walking away. They can stay on the market hoping for the good ol’ days to return, but they won’t. Sellers need a dose of reality. Do they really want to sell or not. I guess up until now sellers could do whatever they wanted and things just sold. Now that the tables have turned.

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  15. 15
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Timmcb @ 9

    It was on full rewind when I checked it on 10/26. Then the last days of October pulled it back into kilter making it look flat. I think that’s a temporary “fix” of sorts, more like an aberration, and the slide evident for most of October will become apparent in the very near future.

    The handwriting is on the wall, but the month end data made the handwriting a little harder to read.

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  16. 16
    Scotsman says:

    RE: ray pepper @ 5

    Agreed. I can’t find a single fundamental- income, employment, debt levels, consumer confidence, etc. that has reversed and started to trend upward eventually leading to increasing home prices. Sure, the sun comes out once in a while and someone in Seattle decides to buy a house, skewing the short term data. That’s not a trend- it’s noise in the machine. Who in their right mind wants to buy today when they can get the same house for 20-30% less in a couple of years?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  17. 17
    Jonness says:

    By Notorious ART @ 14:

    HAHAHA, I’m in a Mexican standoff with a seller right now and I’m actually Mexican…..My wife and I found a house that we like and put in an offer, but the seller is playing games not wanting to lower their price. It really doesn’t matter to me, if the deal isn’t there I’m fine with walking away. They can stay on the market hoping for the good ol’ days to return, but they won’t. Sellers need a dose of reality. Do they really want to sell or not. I guess up until now sellers could do whatever they wanted and things just sold. Now that the tables have turned.

    I’ve had a few close calls over the past few years. In hindsight, thank goodness those greedy sellers were so stubborn, and didn’t accept my lowballs. Otherwise I’d be underwater. My advice is to firmly hold your ground. If you don’t get the house, a year from now, you’ll thank your lucky stars.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  18. 18
    Lurker says:

    RE: Jonness @ 17

    I’ve dodged a few bullets myself. I shudder now at the thought if the deal had gone through.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  19. 19
    GrizzlyBear says:

    By Lurker @ 1:

    �The majority of buyers I am working with are not in any hurry to purchase, but want to take advantage of the lower house values we see in the winter,� said Cheryl McLaine, a Redfin agent in Redmond and Kirkland. �On the other side, sellers who have been on the market for over several months with regular price drops seem to have little financial room to negotiate.�

    That really nails it. With projected low GDP and high unemployment for many more years this is going to be a long and slow torture. Buyers want lower prices but so many sellers have limited wiggle room. It’s a Mexican standoff but one where the ground that the buyers are standing on is slowly eroding.

    The end result is more foreclosures. Prices in the Seattle area, and all of Washington for that matter, are still far too high.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  20. 20
    ray pepper says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 16

    Scotsman I must confess I bought a few days ago. 5 Acre, 10 year old home, in Gig Harbor for 130k. I will fill you in on details after it closes. Waiting is good but you always gotta be ready to strike!

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