Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

12 responses to “October Housing Stats Around the Sound”

  1. LA Relo

    So is it safe to say the April 30th deadline for the buyer’s bribe, I mean credit, convinced people to buy at least 6 months early? Or is there another reason the number of closed sales dropped double digits across the board?

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  2. deejayoh

    October 2009 was the fake first expiration of the tax credit, IIRC

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  3. hrpuffinstuff

    looking at the price chart things look pretty stable. The lower volume is considerable. Maybe that means less people want to sell their homes now a days?

    Someone else said it, Mexican standoff. Someone’s going down in the spring and I doubt its the buyers.

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  4. softwarengineer

    Typical Seattle Recession Type Data

    Even in the 80s recession the sellers were reluctant to deal, until they had to. It’s totally different this time IMO, the price fixing sellers cannot hold off forever with 0.2% interest on their bank savings, pensions getting eliminated, drawbacks [and COLA freezes] on their Social Security, property taxes eating them alive at old unrealistically higher assessed values and Freddie/Fannie bailouts can’t last forever either.

    The smart sellers in my book sold last year at 15-20% below today’s holdouts….just wait and see in 2011 and 2012.

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  5. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: LA Relo @ 1 – Undoubtedly the credit is the main effect, but I think it helps to have the numbers laid out. Here are the King County SFR sales since January, 2009. (Numbers from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed):

    674 Jan 09
    661
    968
    1004
    1312
    1655
    1727
    1609
    1618
    1758
    1574
    1462
    956 Jan 10
    997
    1596
    1642 Apr 10
    1766
    1879 Jun 10
    1474
    1313
    1158
    1309 Oct 10

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  6. ItWillBeNice

    To finally see next year $100/sq. ft for both new homes and homes built in the 50’s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90,s & 00s, and as SE described above all the while all the current investors and homeowners who bought in the last several years will start fresh rebuilding their nest egg accounts :)

    Typical endings to ponzis.

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  7. BillE

    By softwarengineer @ 4:

    Typical Seattle Recession Type Data

    Even in the 80s recession the sellers were reluctant to deal, until they had to.

    Buyers today don’t even have to deal with private sellers. Every day, more bank-owned houses come on the market and they’re priced well below those being sold by bag holders. People will say the REO’s are beat up and need repairs, but I’m seeing a lot that don’t need much accept for maybe a couple of appliances. Comparing their list prices to some of the others, I would gladly buy a new fridge and washer-dryer set.

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  8. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: BillE @ 7 – You act like that’s something new. I remember looking at HUD houses w/ my parents back in probably the late 60s. Some of them back then even had new electrical systems installed.

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  9. BillE

    My point, is that sellers who won’t move on price don’t matter much. There’s a lot of bank-owned stuff out there at better prices. The number of people holding on for high prices is a smaller and smaller part of the market.

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  10. Jonness

    Study proves RE agents should never be hired to sell your house, unless you want to lose a considerable amount of money:

    http://money.blogs.time.com/2010/11/02/study-no-reason-to-pay-realtor-commissions-when-selling-a-house/

    “Our key finding is that Realtors do not offset the cost of their commission; they do not get you a higher price.”

    Just say no to 6% Realtors!

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  11. Jonness

    By BillE @ 9:

    The number of people holding on for high prices is a smaller and smaller part of the market.

    A few years ago, my coworker asked me when I was going to buy a house near my place of employment. I told her I would buy when I could get her house for the same price she paid for it in 1999. She said, “Dream on; that’s never going to happen.”

    About a year later, she talked to a Realtor friend of hers about listing her house. She was shocked at the low price her friend recommended selling it at. She put it on the market at that low price, and it never sold, so she took it off the market.

    A couple of days ago, I experienced a nightmare commute in the snow storm. When I arrived at work, my coworker asked me again when I was going to buy a house closer to work. I told her I would buy when I could get her house for the same price she paid for it in 1999. She agreed that made sense, and we both went on with our day.

    I should make a t-shirt with a big smiley face on it that reads, “Don’t laugh. It happened in Japan!”

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  12. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: BillE @ 9 – Bank owned prices are better, but you typically aren’t getting the same things and have a lot more risk. I’m not saying it can’t be worth it, just pointing out that it is different.

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